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January 26-27 Storm Disco/Obs II


Baroclinic Zone

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Noyes still uber-cautious on this thing for any points north of hartford - providence line. significant bust potential..he actually answered my question regarding concern for the drying trend in central PA and agrees that it is an area of concern to watch out for.

Why Providence though? NW Mass sure...but?

--

I really like where it's heading for interior SE MA. RUC is inexorably collapsing SE in time with the most intense precip to come into line with the other models/consensus. I trust Phil's analysis more than mine on temps, he has no worries, I have no worries...all systems go.

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storrs, have dripping like crazy coming down off the top of the apartment building. Thought it was from the lights, it's not. Sidewalks are also just wet. Odd..

Dude, I am in downtown Willimantic right now - at work on Main Street. We had to shovel the sidewalks in front of our building this afternoon and they are covered - lightly - with snow again. No melting here, and 28 degrees. Weird, usually Storrs is a couple degrees colder.

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If the RUC is right, someone is going to get absolutely smoked with 2-3" per hour type stuff. In addition to the ML frontogenesis, its putting SNE in the left exit region of a 120 kt jet at H3 that it curls around the ULL to enhance the lift more.

Should be interesting to watch.

Weenies crossed.

25.9\24

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Impressive convection off the nj coast.

OKX just put out a SWS ...........snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour with these cells and lightning.

Going to be a crazy night, if you love weather this is your storm

I've been drooling at the radar south of us as those storms are heading straight north to nail us.

heavy band going through DC now, looks like it will be over within an hour. Philly looks like it could be in a CCB for awhile, perhaps 3-4 more hours before it shuts off. Major pivot point may be setting up in central jersey to far southern CT. North of there, unclear.

Really? Still with this? You do realize precipitation will be created and that is not simply going to turn and twist due east since it's not right now even?

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Why Providence though? NW Mass sure...but?

--

I really like where it's heading for interior SE MA. RUC is inexorably collapsing SE in time with the most intense precip to come into line with the other models/consensus. I trust Phil's analysis more than mine on temps, he has no worries, I have no worries...all systems go.

Jesus, RUC.

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If the RUC is right, someone is going to get absolutely smoked with 2-3" per hour type stuff. In addition to the ML frontogenesis, its putting SNE in the left exit region of a 120 kt jet at H3 that it curls around the ULL to enhance the lift more.

Should be interesting to watch.

Boston Franconia says flurries for everyone all night..simply because he's got high cirrus up north

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If the RUC is right, someone is going to get absolutely smoked with 2-3" per hour type stuff. In addition to the ML frontogenesis, its putting SNE in the left exit region of a 120 kt jet at H3 that it curls around the ULL to enhance the lift more.

Should be interesting to watch.

If the RUC is right up here i will bang it........

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I've been drooling at the radar south of us as those storms are heading straight north to nail us.

Really? Still with this? You do realize precipitation will be created and that is not simply going to turn and twist due east since it's not right now even?

Its actually snowing pretty good here, no warm layer up there so far...

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Ask and you shall receive haha

079 ACUS11 KWNS 270018SWOMCDSPC MCD 270018 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-270545-MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0618 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NJ...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...MUCH OFCT...RI AND SERN MACONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 270018Z - 270545ZAS OF 00Z MIXED PRECIP TYPES OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET ANDSNOW WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ...LONG ISLAND/INCLUDING NYC METRO/...CT...RI AND MA. PRECIPITATION SHOULDTRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PIVOTNEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR ONEINCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM CNTRL NJ NEWD TO SERN MA.CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SFC FREEZING LINE WAS FROM NEARPYM IN MA SWD ALONG THE CT SHORE TO NEAR PHL. FREEZING RAIN WASBEING REPORTED AT MANY LOCATIONS ON LONG ISLAND WITH INTERMITTENTSNOW AND RAIN REPORTS ELSEWHERE. THE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OFFSHORETHE DE/MD AND SRN NJ COASTS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA THE BACK SIDE OFTHE DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL ALLOW TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TO ALLSNOW BY AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL FURTHER BESUPPORTED BY ENHANCED ASCENT ATTRIBUTED TO A FRONTOGENETIC BANDBETWEEN 850-700 MB EVIDENT IN 23Z MESOANALYSIS.ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MODEST ELEVATED CAPETHROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OFTIME TONIGHT. EXPECT ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FROM CNTRL NJ THROUGH THENYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AREA AS WELL AS MUCH OF CT AND INTO RISTARTING AROUND 02Z TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND 09Z. HEAVIER SNOW WILLSHIFT EWD INTO MA AROUND 05Z-06Z TONIGHT...STOPPKOTTE.. 01/27/2011...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...LAT...LON 41947242 41497324 41247378 40937449 40407494 40127498 39797486 39637465 39687425 39907370 40337275 40647200 41407056 41696996 41926995 42137012 42277052 42337114 42337140 42107204 41947242

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Latest models give us a little more love, but not much.

Yeah, I read about 30 pages of discussion and came across the jubilation. GYX has penned a half inch overnight. Of course, that was before the BIG SHIFT but I'm not expecting much of an upgrade in reality. 2" would be a win imby. Told the folks at work 2-4 at noon. That may have been too generous. Not our storm this time, though there will be others.

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HERE WE GO!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0618 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NJ...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...MUCH OF

CT...RI AND SERN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 270018Z - 270545Z

AS OF 00Z MIXED PRECIP TYPES OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND

SNOW WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ...LONG ISLAND

/INCLUDING NYC METRO/...CT...RI AND MA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD

TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PIVOT

NEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR ONE

INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM CNTRL NJ NEWD TO SERN MA.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SFC FREEZING LINE WAS FROM NEAR

PYM IN MA SWD ALONG THE CT SHORE TO NEAR PHL. FREEZING RAIN WAS

BEING REPORTED AT MANY LOCATIONS ON LONG ISLAND WITH INTERMITTENT

SNOW AND RAIN REPORTS ELSEWHERE. THE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE

THE DE/MD AND SRN NJ COASTS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA THE BACK SIDE OF

THE DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL ALLOW TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL

SNOW BY AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL FURTHER BE

SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED ASCENT ATTRIBUTED TO A FRONTOGENETIC BAND

BETWEEN 850-700 MB EVIDENT IN 23Z MESOANALYSIS.

ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MODEST ELEVATED CAPE

THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF

TIME TONIGHT.

EXPECT ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FROM CNTRL NJ THROUGH THE

NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AREA AS WELL AS MUCH OF CT AND INTO RI

STARTING AROUND 02Z TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND 09Z. HEAVIER SNOW WILL

SHIFT EWD INTO MA AROUND 05Z-06Z TONIGHT.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 01/27/2011

post-1364-0-67810200-1296087655.gif

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