Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 26-27 Storm Disco/Obs II


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Ginx, I hope you and Jerry get rocked. I think I'll get at least a little love here, it's snowing hard currently. Been out of touch all day and just finished tuning skis for MRG in the morning. Seems like this thing could have a little pop to it. Do you think there are any that still don't believe? Turn the music up!

cranking I mean cranking Aerosmith right now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have 5-9 out for here...but I'm afraid of a bust in either direction. Starting to look like if it busts though it will probably be in the fun direction. I think we'll make the 5.

If you can send some of that "fun" about 15 miles north, there might be a beer waitng for you at Funkys

Wind is picking up. Any comments on WCVBs Futurecast?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First off my pants are not in a bunch but are filled with snow to my knees, second here is the GFS 3 hour, dead nuts. Give it time. I will not lose any sleep over this, wait I will being up for the death band, its all good but I still do not understand your original post.

The point was it moved east along the border of NC for a few hours! It's everyone else that took issue with what was a correct statement and drew all sorts of conclusions from it. It's an obs/discussion thread I threw out an ob with a loop. Pretty well supported by the GFS/NAM/RUC/SPC analysis/forecasts it did tick east for a few hours. One of those deals where everyone went off on tangents after that. The truth in all of it is that it's probably somewhere between the 18zGFS and 12z GFS, but def north of the 12z GFS. It's also a tighter spiral than was modeled. How much does it matter? We'll soon find out. FWIW, the 1h RUC won't get the 540 above the DE border...unlike both the 18z american models.

That's a fair summary. I'm not trying to ruffle any feathers, I just am holding out that the east movement from radar returns is more pronounced than what most everyone in NE is giving it credit for at this point and that the northern stream is playing a significant blocking roll that was not picked up well for whatever reason in the 18z suite...

Also, P.S., I dont know if it's just on weathertap radar or not, but the back end drying rapidly in central PA has me worried as well that dry is really moving in in earnest...question is I guess whether that dry air will force the storm on a more northerly track or will it shunt the moisture more easterly. Only time will tell but as of now I like the easterly trend more than most.

I think it's too early to jump to conclusions but we talk about the m/l all th time, the 18z models expanded/shifted it N and that may have been at least a partial over-correction. 0z UA can confirm, sometimes it looks different than it is to the eye, SPC UA and RUC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you can send some of that "fun" about 15 miles north, there might be a beer waitng for you at Funkys

Wind is picking up. Any comments on WCVBs Futurecast?

Yes, I'm very concerned by it and the RUC...and the 18z GFS for that matter. I have 5-9 BTW up by your area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

quote name='Ginx' timestamp='1296083424' post='373254'

RED FLAG

now i know everyone gets upset when this is pointed out . human nature. but another red flag was box shifting totals SE....they saw something that led them to do this. It's now cast. and ML center movement is key. Coastalwx do you verify what messenger said about the ML's ....answer it imagining you won't have to answer 30 other questions if you agree. lol i mean the ML's closing off and the track is the key for us right.

looked this has been progged to roll East for a while as it consolidates, closed off then pivot NE. I do not understand why he thinks that is a surprise or not modelled. IDK believe what you want but watch the shindig unfold.

Did I say it was a surprise? It's an obs thread, as usual everyone has their panties in a bunch if any comment can be misconstrued as taking away their snow

--- the thread was locked/so it's muffed up the reply/quote/blocked it.

cpicket- Well it's supposed to be wandering ENE eventually, it's a powerhouse so wobbles are normal. But they can be critical later. I don't know why BOX shifted SE, I'm actually really, really worried about the temp spike right now. That's why I haven't come off the 4-8 here, but thankful as all heck I don't have to put out a forecast like the poor tv guys/noaa. It's a tough tough call. The RUC? It would rain over a lot of eastern MA in the jackpot areas first

='40/70 Benchmark' - The truth may be right over your house.

Basinbaker' This keeps up warmth may be an issue. I'm getting concerned.

messenger i will keep you posted! Currently 33.6F Wind 10-15 nne big flakes. If my wind goes due east temps start to rise

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lots of melting going on outside

where the hell are you? I have 30.4 degrees with fine flakes

Somebody needs to explain icicles to me. It snows I get icicles, it freezes hard then warms up a little no icicles, snows, pete repete/ has to have something to do with new snow layer melting.

FYI we got roof warnings on our pagers late this afternoon from Homeland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the RUC is right, someone is going to get absolutely smoked with 2-3" per hour type stuff. In addition to the ML frontogenesis, its putting SNE in the left exit region of a 120 kt jet at H3 that it curls around the ULL to enhance the lift more.

Should be interesting to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

where the hell are you? I have 30.4 degrees with fine flakes

Somebody needs to explain icicles to me. It snows I get icicles, it freezes hard then warms up a little no icicles, snows, pete repete/ has to have something to do with new snow layer melting.

FYI we got roof warnings on our pagers late this afternoon from Homeland.

storrs, have dripping like crazy coming down off the top of the apartment building. Thought it was from the lights, it's not. Sidewalks are also just wet. Odd..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...