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January 26-27 Storm Disco/Obs II


Baroclinic Zone

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It has to turn NOW to end up at the 6h GFS forecast point.

The 2 hour RUC forecast from 22 has the 540 cutting across the DE border, right where the 12z GFS had it. A decent tick south of where the 18z GFS had it. To my eye it looks more south than the 18z GFS forecast...through the 545 panel.

From the maps you posted it would have to turn almost hard NE right now to get to the GFS position. Does it matter who knows...but just pointing it out. From the maps you posted, look at the 540/5400...in 2 hours it has to come a long way NE to meet that position. It may be happening and we may see that in subsequent WV passes, but it's a curiousity to me.

First off my pants are not in a bunch but are filled with snow to my knees, second here is the GFS 3 hour, dead nuts. Give it time. I will not lose any sleep over this, wait I will being up for the death band, its all good but I still do not understand your original post.

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Guess he likes the east movement a lot .... anyways,

That's a fair summary. I'm not trying to ruffle any feathers, I just am holding out that the east movement from radar returns is more pronounced than what most everyone in NE is giving it credit for at this point and that the northern stream is playing a significant blocking roll that was not picked up well for whatever reason in the 18z suite...

Also, P.S., I dont know if it's just on weathertap radar or not, but the back end drying rapidly in central PA has me worried as well that dry is really moving in in earnest...question is I guess whether that dry air will force the storm on a more northerly track or will it shunt the moisture more easterly. Only time will tell but as of now I like the easterly trend more than most.

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5h is forecast to rapidly deepen expanding its northern extent of circulation...that's one of the reasons we are seeing a big bump NW in qpf...not necessarily tracking that much closer, but rapidly intensifying and its circulation extends further northwest. Its able to rip the winds in the 5h level more from the S and SSE....this is for those wondering what the more recent RUC runs are doing and the 18z runs.

Compare the 18z gfs to 12z gfs at 06z...you'll see how the 534 closed height line is larger.

No doubt that's what the GFS did, but based on the SPC matching the RUC 22 init very well, w/v and 2 hour RUC forecast, it's not going as predicted by the 18z GFS. It's somewhere between the 12z/18z but more like the RGEM perhaps. We'll see if it pulls it off in the last 20-30 minutes. It could just be a timing difference too.

It's not moving east LOL..Not sure if folks have their monitors upside down or what

It def did move east, unless you think the SPC has upside down monitors too.

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That's a fair summary. I'm not trying to ruffle any feathers, I just am holding out that the east movement from radar returns is more pronounced than what most everyone in NE is giving it credit for at this point and that the northern stream is playing a significant blocking roll that was not picked up well for whatever reason in the 18z suite...

Also, P.S., I dont know if it's just on weathertap radar or not, but the back end drying rapidly in central PA has me worried as well that dry is really moving in in earnest...question is I guess whether that dry air will force the storm on a more northerly track or will it shunt the moisture more easterly. Only time will tell but as of now I like the easterly trend more than most.

move to florida and root for afternoon thunderstorms that always move west to east...................

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I'm not ready to believe the 18z GFS or the 22z RUC yet, but we'll see. The premise for a northern track is ont he rapid strengthening of the 5h low which is tedious because we know its strengthening, but just not quite how much.

Based on the way the ULL swings across and up to the NE, we should see a NE jog commence fairly shortly in the precip shield associated with the ULL.

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frontogenesis develops, not moves... don't be deceived by precip movement within the band

Yeah the northern extent of the precip shield will start expanding northeast and blossom. In fact on the very latest frame you can see it doing that well in NNJ and even into SE NY.

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Guess I am not cuz you weenie me all the time :unsure:

Ginx, I hope you and Jerry get rocked. I think I'll get at least a little love here, it's snowing hard currently. Been out of touch all day and just finished tuning skis for MRG in the morning. Seems like this thing could have a little pop to it. Do you think there are any that still don't believe? Turn the music up!

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Got in the mood by walking to JJ Foleys to pick up dinner. Talking to the owner about 1978. Packed for 3 days with cops, firefighters, Herald employees and plow drivers. Nobody had any cash so they paid their tabs a week later by cashing their overtime checks. Now THAT is a snowstorm.

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