Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Fire away! Previous thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I may need to go find the key that I locked 1-3'' up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 "Bleeding snow" "Heavy sheets moving sideways" "Thunder and lightning" "Crash... tree branch just came down" Quotes from DC area thread!!! Philly area forecasters going for 10-15. What a wild storm... a Nowcast storm if there ever was one, as GFS / NAM seem to be flopping all over the place. Perhaps due to the intense convective activity in the MD/VA/DE area? I have a feeling we have an exciting night in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It will not if it remains on its current course and will slide out south of us... From the other thread...LOL, yeah OK. I have basically stayed light snow here, some IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Its all going southeast out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 quote name='cpickett79' timestamp='1296083053' post='373177'] RED FLAG now i know everyone gets upset when this is pointed out . human nature. but another red flag was box shifting totals SE....they saw something that led them to do this. It's now cast. and ML center movement is key. Coastalwx do you verify what messenger said about the ML's ....answer it imagining you won't have to answer 30 other questions if you agree. lol i mean the ML's closing off and the track is the key for us right. looked this has been progged to roll East for a while as it consolidates, closed off then pivot NE. I do not understand why he thinks that is a surprise or not modelled. IDK believe what you want but watch the shindig unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mets, what are your final calls for accums in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 What kind of winds are we looking at down here in SE MA, CC, Islands? I haven't been able to read much in the past few hours but I did see Phil mention the potential looking at the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What kind of winds are we looking at down here in SE MA, CC, Islands? I haven't been able to read much in the past few hours but I did see Phil mention the potential looking at the 18z NAM. Haven't watched them closely but the CT coast could see 30-40MPH tonight so I'm guessing it'll rip there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...MODELS REACHING FINAL CONVERGENCE ON SCENARIO FOR WINTER STORM OVERNIGHT. WAA BAND OF PRECIP IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING E AT THIS TIME PER LATEST RAD IMG. WV IMG SUGGESTING STRONG JET WRAPPING INTO PRIMARY UPPER LOW OVER W VIRGINIA AND EXPECT THIS TO ALLOW STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SFC LOW CROSSES THE COAST. DUE TO THE DYNAMIC CHANGE...EXPECT A SHORT LIVED LULL THIS EVENING IN STRATIFORM -SN BEFORE INCREASE IN DEFORMATION BANDING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS BANDING WILL LIE OVER SE MASS AND THE S COAST...SO EXPECTING THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THIS REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WILL BE QUICK IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROF INTO OH RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST GFS AND HPC FOR QPF AND BASED SNOW TOTALS OFF OF TEMPS AND A 10 TO 1 RATIO. BESIDES SNOW...WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE S COAST...ISLANDS AND THE CAPE ESPECIALLY. WHILE THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT... BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR THE BEST MIXING TO OCCUR THEN. ONLY AREA WHERE THIS IS NOT COVERED BY A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NANTUCKET ISLAND WHICH WAS RAISED TO A WIND ADVISORY EARLIER TODAY TO COVER THESE HIGH WINDS. FOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES...SEE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RAD looks awfully disjointed at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looked this has been progged to roll East for a while as it consolidates, closed off then pivot NE. I do not understand why he thinks that is a surprise or not modelled. IDK believe what you want but watch the shindig unfold. Here is GFS 6 Hour prog and current Meso analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 will or scott , is there anything that leads you to believe the 5h low could capture this or is that off the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 From the other thread...LOL, yeah OK. I have basically stayed light snow here, some IP. it's a huge red flag to me that: 1) best dynamics are being established in the delmarva/snj, 2) the sharp cutoff gradient is progressing southeast thru PA, well south of us and 3) no heavy precipitation worked its way north of the RI/CT - MA border in round 1. Also, visually, the bowling bowl is rolling east or just slightly north of east...i am having a hard time picturing it getting picked up and slamming hard into any but the most southern and eastern portions of NE (with perhaps the exception of southern CT as well). Sorry, this is just how I see it from a nowcast perspective, no matter what the models are spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Eck.. 15-20dbz light sn from bridgton to windham. Must be LL SE flow stuff, under the radar. Roads were covered in spots. Just fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 will or scott , is there anything that leads you to believe the 5h low could capture this or is that off the table? Its not going to track close enough and its hauling azz getting the boot from the kicker upstream....its going to be a fast mover. Should be pretty intense though for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 quote name='Ginx' timestamp='1296083424' post='373254' RED FLAG now i know everyone gets upset when this is pointed out . human nature. but another red flag was box shifting totals SE....they saw something that led them to do this. It's now cast. and ML center movement is key. Coastalwx do you verify what messenger said about the ML's ....answer it imagining you won't have to answer 30 other questions if you agree. lol i mean the ML's closing off and the track is the key for us right. looked this has been progged to roll East for a while as it consolidates, closed off then pivot NE. I do not understand why he thinks that is a surprise or not modelled. IDK believe what you want but watch the shindig unfold. Did I say it was a surprise? It's an obs thread, as usual everyone has their panties in a bunch if any comment can be misconstrued as taking away their snow --- the thread was locked/so it's muffed up the reply/quote/blocked it. cpicket- Well it's supposed to be wandering ENE eventually, it's a powerhouse so wobbles are normal. But they can be critical later. I don't know why BOX shifted SE, I'm actually really, really worried about the temp spike right now. That's why I haven't come off the 4-8 here, but thankful as all heck I don't have to put out a forecast like the poor tv guys/noaa. It's a tough tough call. The RUC? It would rain over a lot of eastern MA in the jackpot areas first ='40/70 Benchmark' - The truth may be right over your house. Basinbaker' This keeps up warmth may be an issue. I'm getting concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RAD looks awfully disjointed at the moment. It will congeal and that stuff to the sw will blossom ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looked this has been progged to roll East for a while as it consolidates, closed off then pivot NE. I do not understand why he thinks that is a surprise or not modelled. IDK believe what you want but watch the shindig unfold. Here is GFS 6 Hour prog and current Meso analysis It has to turn NOW to end up at the 6h GFS forecast point. The 2 hour RUC forecast from 22 has the 540 cutting across the DE border, right where the 12z GFS had it. A decent tick south of where the 18z GFS had it. To my eye it looks more south than the 18z GFS forecast...through the 545 panel. From the maps you posted it would have to turn almost hard NE right now to get to the GFS position. Does it matter who knows...but just pointing it out. From the maps you posted, look at the 540/5400...in 2 hours it has to come a long way NE to meet that position. It may be happening and we may see that in subsequent WV passes, but it's a curiousity to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I may need to go find the key that I locked 1-3'' up with. Yup! Up here in Andover we may match the BOX amount in another 60 minutes. Has been snowing moderately for the last 90 minutes and bordering on heavy right now. 23.1/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The weenies are out in full force this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It will congeal and that stuff to the sw will blossom ne. I know....just sayn'. Some could grab 1' in 6 hrs under the best deformation band, though I don't thnk I'd call for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 quote name='Ginx' timestamp='1296083424' post='373254' RED FLAG now i know everyone gets upset when this is pointed out . human nature. but another red flag was box shifting totals SE....they saw something that led them to do this. It's now cast. and ML center movement is key. Coastalwx do you verify what messenger said about the ML's ....answer it imagining you won't have to answer 30 other questions if you agree. lol i mean the ML's closing off and the track is the key for us right. looked this has been progged to roll East for a while as it consolidates, closed off then pivot NE. I do not understand why he thinks that is a surprise or not modelled. IDK believe what you want but watch the shindig unfold. Did I say it was a surprise? It's an obs thread, as usual everyone has their panties in a bunch if any comment can be misconstrued as taking away their snow --- the thread was locked/so it's muffed up the reply/quote/blocked it. cpicket- Well it's supposed to be wandering ENE eventually, it's a powerhouse so wobbles are normal. But they can be critical later. I don't know why BOX shifted SE, I'm actually really, really worried about the temp spike right now. That's why I haven't come off the 4-8 here, but thankful as all heck I don't have to put out a forecast like the poor tv guys/noaa. It's a tough tough call. The RUC? It would rain over a lot of eastern MA in the jackpot areas first ='40/70 Benchmark' - The truth may be right over your house. Basinbaker' This keeps up warmth may be an issue. I'm getting concerned. The temps are moving really well in line with the 18z products. We should hold in this funky temp area until midnight. That's been really well modeled for the last 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 "Bleeding snow" "Heavy sheets moving sideways" "Thunder and lightning" "Crash... tree branch just came down" Quotes from DC area thread!!! Philly area forecasters going for 10-15. What a wild storm... a Nowcast storm if there ever was one, as GFS / NAM seem to be flopping all over the place. Perhaps due to the intense convective activity in the MD/VA/DE area? I have a feeling we have an exciting night in store wasting the best dynamics on the mid-atlantic FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wiz - ur little thunderstorm is rocketing towards NYC, wonder what p-type that would be if it stays together Hail/TS/Sn+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It will congeal and that stuff to the sw will blossom ne. 5h is forecast to rapidly deepen expanding its northern extent of circulation...that's one of the reasons we are seeing a big bump NW in qpf...not necessarily tracking that much closer, but rapidly intensifying and its circulation extends further northwest. Its able to rip the winds in the 5h level more from the S and SSE....this is for those wondering what the more recent RUC runs are doing and the 18z runs. Compare the 18z gfs to 12z gfs at 06z...you'll see how the 534 closed height line is larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 quote name='Ginx' timestamp='1296083424' post='373254' RED FLAG now i know everyone gets upset when this is pointed out . human nature. but another red flag was box shifting totals SE....they saw something that led them to do this. It's now cast. and ML center movement is key. Coastalwx do you verify what messenger said about the ML's ....answer it imagining you won't have to answer 30 other questions if you agree. lol i mean the ML's closing off and the track is the key for us right. looked this has been progged to roll East for a while as it consolidates, closed off then pivot NE. I do not understand why he thinks that is a surprise or not modelled. IDK believe what you want but watch the shindig unfold. Did I say it was a surprise? It's an obs thread, as usual everyone has their panties in a bunch if any comment can be misconstrued as taking away their snow --- the thread was locked/so it's muffed up the reply/quote/blocked it. cpicket- Well it's supposed to be wandering ENE eventually, it's a powerhouse so wobbles are normal. But they can be critical later. I don't know why BOX shifted SE, I'm actually really, really worried about the temp spike right now. That's why I haven't come off the 4-8 here, but thankful as all heck I don't have to put out a forecast like the poor tv guys/noaa. It's a tough tough call. The RUC? It would rain over a lot of eastern MA in the jackpot areas first ='40/70 Benchmark' - The truth may be right over your house. Basinbaker' This keeps up warmth may be an issue. I'm getting concerned. I knew there was a reason I liked you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 For Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's not moving east LOL..Not sure if folks have their monitors upside down or what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 mattnoyes Matt Noyes WOW. Barometric pressure has fallen 10 mb in the last 3 hours off the coast of NJ. Rapid storm strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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