earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I will be in this thread all night...so I hope you can learn to love me =) Check out Clifton point and click: Tonight: Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 24. North wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. But damn, you always beat me by one inch.... Tonight: Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 25. North wind between 13 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Now it's a party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's a bit of an old measurement now, but 2.6" here as of 2:30 PM. Its snowing now...there is a familiar and comfortable old pattern this afternoon. Showery precip with snow when it comes steadier and just some poorly formed flakes / snizzle / tiny ice pellets when it is very light. I can live with that until the main event...although we've been having a decent snow shower for the past 20 minutes and that is better. We did a little better to your east today, usually you're right in the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 alot of action going on over coastal delmarva, radar really picking up in extreme SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 intent on keeping the best banding out of southern ny and southern ct. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 alot of action going on over coastal delmarva, radar really picking up in extreme SNJ Yeah, that looks like an awesome time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah, that looks like an awesome time. Earthlight, You still snow or did you change over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 aaaaah.....and its 420. you guys drink your scotch and my dawgs and i will just btw, mm5 for some reason doesnt have todays 12z up for view. maybe theyre fixin it. EDIT: not sure about mm5, looks like its updating so it wont show 36 and 12km charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The monster approaches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Man, the NAM has tons of ascent that is juxtaposed perfectly with very strong mid level frontogenesis..this could be a really intense band that sets up over SE PA towards Philly and then moves northeast towards New Jersey and New York City. All the signs are there--now we just have to see if it develops as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 700 mb map, John posted, is practically textbook for heavy frontogenetic forcing as we have seen in multiple Kocin-Uccellini events in the past, (Namely December 26-27th, 2010, February 11-12th, 2006, February 11-12th, 1983, January 7-8, 1996). Someone is going to get hit extremely hard from this snapshot at 700 mb with serious snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 can we really trust the nam at this point Earth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 700 mb map, John posted, is practically textbook for heavy frontogenetic forcing as we have seen in multiple Kocin-Uccellini events in the past, (Namely December 26-27th, 2010, February 11-12th, 2006, February 11-12th, 1983, January 7-8, 1996). Someone is going to get hit extremely hard from this snapshot at 700 mb with serious snowfall rates. That's actually 800-600mb frontogenic forcing...but you get the point. Very good omega (lift) in the snow growth region especially on the 12z NAM forecast soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 can we really trust the nam at this point Earth? I wouldn't trust it's QPF numbers, but I would strongly consider where it's trying to tell us the best banding will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s17/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1296077327317 996mb, i like the spot that its in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa....f?1296077327317 996mb, i like the spot that its in. best solutions had it more tucked into coast, but that is probably close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 anyone getting snow in manhattan, looks like sleet / zr right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some light precip here. Switching between some snow, sleet, and even freezing drizzle at times. This has allowed the main roadways to clear a bit but side streets are still a mess. Love this weather so far but driving around everyday it is amazing to see the amount of new potholes that are forming every day. The city really needs to keep up more with them in future years. They repaved the Van Wyck last May, it can already use re-paving between JFK and Main Street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Question on the HRRR: 0400 UTZ = 11pm EST - correct? I have got to see what 5 inch per hour snowfall rates look like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I wouldn't trust it's QPF numbers, but I would strongly consider where it's trying to tell us the best banding will be. Do you see long western suffolk eastern nassau getting into the mega band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I measured around 4" as well, so pretty spot onto Central Park's report. Tonight looks like a biggie, I'm gonna be out there all night. ya already know..! vids and pics coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 aaaaah.....and its 420. you guys drink your scotch and my dawgs and i will just i will light to that i am physically excited to watch this event unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some light precip here. Switching between some snow, sleet, and even freezing drizzle at times. This has allowed the main roadways to clear a bit but side streets are still a mess. Love this weather so far but driving around everyday it is amazing to see the amount of new potholes that are forming every day. The city really needs to keep up more with them in future years. They repaved the Van Wyck last May, it can already use re-paving between JFK and Main Street. Yea I had light sleet for like 10 minutes but large flakes are mixing in already. The potholes btw have gotten way out of control. I look like I'm driving drunk when trying to avoid them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 WILL MENTION NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...BUT DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL NOT UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. This is from NWS Upton...Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't wet snow not have anything to do with blizzard criteria? I thought it's only visibility of less 1/4 mi or less and winds of 35 mph for 3 consecutive hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bikerman262 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 anyone getting snow in manhattan, looks like sleet / zr right now. Was getting light sleet down here on the lower east side, but it is now switching over to light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 anyone getting snow in manhattan, looks like sleet / zr right now. Sort of a mix right here snow/graupel/sleet, near Union Sq. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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