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NYC Area January 26-27 Bomb Discussion and OBS Part 3


earthlight

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Turning over quickly in DC area to heavy snow with numerous thunderstorms reports, I am about as excited for this night of weather as any I can remember....:snowman:

Numerous cloud to ground lightning strikes in eastern Maryland.

Edit: Not all cloud-to-ground strikes.

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WEENIE ALERT....

Mt.Holly (taken from)

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS ARE ON THE WANE AFTER DEPOSITING UP

TO 6 INCHES IN CHESTER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES TODAY. WHAT WILL

TURN INTO QUITE AN INTERESTING EVENT IS SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE

APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES

ARE OCCURRING IN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. IT WILL

EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. AS THIS

OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD A POSITION S-SE OF

LONG ISLAND BY 03Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC

PROFILES ALONG AND S OF A LINE FROM NRN VA TO CNTRL NJ THAT WILL

INITIALLY SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION

OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CAA

OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL FAVOR A

QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE PRIMARY SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION

TRANSLATES NEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHT.

THE CONVECTION WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM.

DON`T BE ALARMED IF YOU HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SNOWFALL RATES

IN THIS CONVECTION COULD EASILY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR

WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IT IS ADVISABLE TO AVOID

TRAVEL THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE,

THE LOW WILL PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE SNOW

WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. CURRENT

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE

MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 20

NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. IT APPEARS AS IF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL

BE IN LINE FOR THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS EVENINGS SNOW.

WE SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MEASURE 8 TO 12 INCHES BEFORE IT

BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

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WEENIE ALERT....

Mt.Holly (taken from)

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS ARE ON THE WANE AFTER DEPOSITING UP

TO 6 INCHES IN CHESTER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES TODAY. WHAT WILL

TURN INTO QUITE AN INTERESTING EVENT IS SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE

APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES

ARE OCCURRING IN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. IT WILL

EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. AS THIS

OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD A POSITION S-SE OF

LONG ISLAND BY 03Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC

PROFILES ALONG AND S OF A LINE FROM NRN VA TO CNTRL NJ THAT WILL

INITIALLY SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION

OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CAA

OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL FAVOR A

QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE PRIMARY SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION

TRANSLATES NEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHT.

THE CONVECTION WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM.

DON`T BE ALARMED IF YOU HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SNOWFALL RATES

IN THIS CONVECTION COULD EASILY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR

WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IT IS ADVISABLE TO AVOID

TRAVEL THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE,

THE LOW WILL PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE SNOW

WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. CURRENT

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE

MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 20

NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. IT APPEARS AS IF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL

BE IN LINE FOR THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS EVENINGS SNOW.

WE SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MEASURE 8 TO 12 INCHES BEFORE IT

BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

Over by midnight?

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Tonight: Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 25. North wind between 13 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Now it's a party.

Fast mover but MAN is it gonna pound for a few hours.

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