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NYC Area January 26-27 Bomb Discussion and OBS Part 3


earthlight

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Given that ratios at EWR/LGA were around 12 or 13 to 1 in the first part of the event (apparently due to good snow growth), I think max amounts will probably reach about 15" - most likely in the corridor from near New Brunswick, NJ to NYC and up into southern Westchester County.

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Just got off the roads. My town is so horrible with snow cleaning, it's laughable. Accidents everywhere and was even skidding around in my 4-wheel drive.

Snow is tapering off to light stuff now. Those radar echoes down south look epic. I agree, HUGE night ahead of us.

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It's now raining in new Brunswick. Hating this very much

JB turned out to be right, modeling vastly underestimated the storm's intensity and NW extent.

I think our fight will be with the rain/snow line instead of the NW fringe...

When do the models have the rain/snow peaking and moving back south? By 5-7pm?

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State College is getting rocked right now when almost every model had them getting very little. That's a great sign for SE NJ, N CT and NW NJ that are fringed right now on most modelling.

I sure hope so. But this is another thing that was discussed yesterday... specifically that the classically undermodeled southern stream mid-level low would benefit WV, Ohio, and CPA but that it might not translate northeastward. I'd really like to see the radar fill in over EPA and NJ. Once the mid-level low reaches the coast, the deform band will be on the move. We need to start cashing in as soon as possible.

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Guest Patrick

I would assume they are including what has already fallen...

Why is Upton still indicating the highest amounts in SE CT/eastern LI? Current radar and trends indicate the best deformation banding will set up over NE NJ/NYC and perhaps into Westchester County and far SW CT.

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KIAD 262021Z 34007KT 1SM R01R/5500VP6000FT -TSSN BR BKN004 OVC010CB 01/M01 A2960 RMK AO2 TSB07RAE1954SNE1954B21PLB1954E21 OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD MOV E P0012

KIAD 262008Z 35011KT 3/4SM R01R/5500VP6000FT TSPL BR OVC004CB 01/00 A2959 RMK AO2 TSB07RAE1954SNE1954PLB1954 OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD MOV E P0009

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Why is Upton still indicating the highest amounts in SE CT/eastern LI? Current radar and trends indicate the best deformation banding will set up over NE NJ/NYC and perhaps into Westchester County and far SW CT.

Are you seeing a dry slot issue for the island? models like RGEM, gfs, and euro all seem to jackpot LI in terms of QPF.

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BEAUTIFUL water vapor imagery.

Just got off the roads- accidents everywhere of course. I was even sliding in my 4-wheel drive. Epic night ahead of us with that convection down by D.C. Currently 30.7 degrees and falling. The models had me getting driving rain just four days ago. I heard about 4 sleet pellets, and that's it for mixed precip. 4.75" new snow...BRING IT ON :weight_lift:

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It's a bit of an old measurement now, but 2.6" here as of 2:30 PM.

Its snowing now...there is a familiar and comfortable old pattern this afternoon. Showery precip with snow when it comes steadier and just some poorly formed flakes / snizzle / tiny ice pellets when it is very light. I can live with that until the main event...although we've been having a decent snow shower for the past 20 minutes and that is better.

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