ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 18z NAM still low for NYC. Has bullseye near Philly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Didn't we say that last year? 2" in Ridgefield, Ct. 1 mi. SN- continues. I think I'm a bit too far north to get the best banding for the longest time but considering how far north this first wave came (up to about 10 mi. north of I-84), the def. band may not be far behind. But PHL-NYC will absolutely rake for a period tonight. Someone down there will get into bands like SNE did on 1/12... upstream radar is a beast! That said, we have anywhere from 16"-20" on the ground (just like 1996, you can take a cross section of the snow and discern 12/26 snow from the norlun snow to the 1/12 snow then the ice then last Thursday... it's unreal) so if we get 8" - which seems like a good number for up this way - we'd have 2 feet of layer cake with more threats/cold airmasses (that 12Z GFS had Vodka cold) down the road entering FEB. Take plenty of mental snapshots, my friends. This is a once in 50 year winter for us ... seasonal trends FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Latest SREF: that is awesome- avg's at inch QPF for the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 wow nam snow hole over NYC and LI what gives?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 thats still very good on the NAM, sign me up for another .50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Cornwall here. Just had some stray flakes until about an hour and a half ago. Light snow now with just a dusting. Ouch. This storm could be painful up here. It would be nice to be on the southern fringe for a change. Ironically it's actually just above freezing here now despite being on northern edge. When I drove in to JFK this morning it was 20 degrees colder here than in Queens. Now the temperature is the same. Might take the train into the City tonight. It should be pretty down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 wow nam snow hole over NYC and LI what gives?lol wouldn't worry about it...its sniffing out the possibility of a mega deform band and is honing on an area where it sees this developing, and because of this QPF around the max are slightly less. Common problem that you have with the NAM on occasion. Oh ya and 00z last night said we we're getting 0.3in QPF...thats worked out well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 wow nam snow hole over NYC and LI what gives?lol answer is the bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 1.1 here, lake hopatcong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 wow nam snow hole over NYC and LI what gives?lol It's either a frozen balloon or convective feedback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 when are we gonna give up on the models and nowcast this monster? radar looks great, water vapor, current low pressure, i think its pretty much gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Quite a bit of back and forth. Definitely in the battle zone here. Yup, it stopped again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Probably about 4" in Central Park so far, given that they've reported 0.32" of liquid and ratios at nearby locations (EWR) so far have been about 12.5 to 1. still no report from the park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i wouldn't worry about it. the NAM qpf depiction makes no sense. only thing to take from it is that someone is going to get 1'+ in the next 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 2inches so far in Rockland Ct NY It is funny, I seem to be on the boarder line of the models for some of the heaviest snow. We are talking 20 miles NW or SE makes a huge difference for me. Can't wait to see how it plays out. Enjoy the snow all :-) I know I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 4-5 inches here in New Brunswick and coming down heavy now. We might verify 6" even before the main event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sleet has switched to graupel and wet flakes in new Brunswick. It's about time too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 HRRR says 6" in 1 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Judging by the radar, it doesnt look like there will be a true lull between the tow, rather a period of light snow/flurries before part 2 starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HRRR says 6" in 1 hr Post it, I dont have a link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HRRR says 6" in 1 hr herrro dere. Radar seems to be leaning that we'll have another long and fun night in NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HRRR says 6" in 1 hr What exactly does HRRR mean and where did this holy model come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I remember mentioning yesterday how the WAA precip to the north of the SLP can be significant and is often undergone. With liquid equivalents coming in between .3-.4 already, it looks like this was the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HRRR says 6" in 1 hr sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I remember mentioning yesterday how the WAA precip to the north of the SLP can be significant and is often undergone. With liquid equivalents coming in between .3-.4 already, it looks like this was the case. ...good call. Picked up around 4 here in central westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Heavy snow in Hauppauge again following about two hours of just flurries and some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ...good call. Picked up around 4 here in central westchester Nice agreement on measuring...I had 4.25" here in Dobbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 very light snizzle falling here in Clifton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 What exactly does HRRR mean and where did this holy model come from? It stands for "High Resolution Rapid Refresh" and it came from the snow gods. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/displayImage.cgi?image=hrrr_conus//2011012618/nclprd/cref_sfc_f06.png&width=861&model=hrrr&title=HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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