rossi Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HM says all the 18z models are junk. None compare vs reality. Said watch sat/radar going forward. Which HM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 18z models aren't even out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HM says all the 18z models are junk. None compare vs reality. Said watch sat/radar going forward. amazing considering none of the 18Z models are out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 HM says all the 18z models are junk. None compare vs reality. Said watch sat/radar going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 amazing considering none of the 18Z models are out yet He meant to say all HIS forecasts are junk and to watch the radar/sat images going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well the RUC is out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0050.html Lets roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...CNTRL/NRN MD...MUCH OF DE...SERN PA...MUCH OF NJ...NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261919Z - 270115Z SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD INTO NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...AND CNTRL/NRN MD DURING THE 21-00Z TIME PERIOD...WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR PROBABLE...AND LOCALLY EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS DE...SERN PA...MUCH OF NJ...THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND BY 00-03Z. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AT 18Z IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...OFFSHORE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD A POSITION S-SE OF LONG ISLAND BY 03Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG AND S OF A LINE FROM NRN VA TO CNTRL NJ WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET/. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CAA OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE PRIMARY SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TRANSLATES NEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALIGNED FROM NERN VA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AIDING IN INTENSE UVV/S THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...AND CNTRL/NRN MD BY 21-00Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...STRONG ASCENT ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS DE...SERN PA...NJ...AND EVENTUALLY THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND. ..GARNER.. 01/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...CNTRL/NRN MD...MUCH OF DE...SERN PA...MUCH OF NJ...NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261919Z - 270115Z SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD INTO NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...AND CNTRL/NRN MD DURING THE 21-00Z TIME PERIOD...WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR PROBABLE...AND LOCALLY EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS DE...SERN PA...MUCH OF NJ...THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND BY 00-03Z. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AT 18Z IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...OFFSHORE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD A POSITION S-SE OF LONG ISLAND BY 03Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG AND S OF A LINE FROM NRN VA TO CNTRL NJ WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET/. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CAA OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE PRIMARY SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TRANSLATES NEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALIGNED FROM NERN VA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AIDING IN INTENSE UVV/S THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...AND CNTRL/NRN MD BY 21-00Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...STRONG ASCENT ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS DE...SERN PA...NJ...AND EVENTUALLY THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND. ..GARNER.. 01/26/2011 Looking at radar/obs I would be VERY surprised if the heavy CCB/Deform precip misses up to the SE. If anything I would be more worried about some of the precip being wasted as rain/sleet at the start. Anything could still happen but I think NW Jersey is probably ok with round #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anybody have 2pm measurements? Let's try and get a thread roundup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I had 3" at 2PM south central LI. Very light mixed precip atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anybody have 2pm measurements? Let's try and get a thread roundup 5.0" in Somerset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Up in white plains now but before I left my house in bronxville I measured 5.6 inches. Its snowing at a moderate clip here in white plains Wow. I've been busy all day and haven't followed the accumulations to the south. Up in Putnam roads and car surfaces are wet with just a dusting on snowcovered ground. 31.4F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like just some drizzle / flurries right now as some warm air aloft makes a bid to spoil the party... Definitely lightening up now, 31.6 F 3 mile visibility cant see anything falling outside, except a few flurries now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 5" on the nose in NE Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anybody have 2pm measurements? Let's try and get a thread roundup 4.25" here Really just light snow since the initial burst this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...CNTRL/NRN MD...MUCH OF DE...SERN PA...MUCH OF NJ...NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261919Z - 270115Z SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD INTO NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...AND CNTRL/NRN MD DURING THE 21-00Z TIME PERIOD...WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR PROBABLE...AND LOCALLY EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS DE...SERN PA...MUCH OF NJ...THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND BY 00-03Z. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AT 18Z IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...OFFSHORE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD A POSITION S-SE OF LONG ISLAND BY 03Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG AND S OF A LINE FROM NRN VA TO CNTRL NJ WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET/. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CAA OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE PRIMARY SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TRANSLATES NEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALIGNED FROM NERN VA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AIDING IN INTENSE UVV/S THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...AND CNTRL/NRN MD BY 21-00Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...STRONG ASCENT ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS DE...SERN PA...NJ...AND EVENTUALLY THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND. ..GARNER.. 01/26/2011 Flurries in Manhattan are now transiitioning to light snow once again. Gonna go out and measure soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 A little off topic, bit appears the ecm holds with a cutter next tue-wed. GGEm a coastal, GFS weak system. 2PM Monroe, NJ : 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Floral Park Nassau L.I. as of 2:30P- 2.3/4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anybody have 2pm measurements? Let's try and get a thread roundup 5 inches here in New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 A little off topic, bit appears the ecm holds with a cutter next tue-wed. GGEm a coastal, GFS weak system. 2PM Monroe, NJ : 4" However it does show some snow before a changeover based on QPF maps on the free site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Up in Putnam roads and car surfaces are wet with just a dusting on snowcovered ground. 31.4F. Where are you in Putnam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anybody have 2pm measurements? Let's try and get a thread roundup How much did you end up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 5 1/2" here hardly flurrying now awaiting round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anybody have 2pm measurements? Let's try and get a thread roundup 3.5" here Pack total of 17" and 48.5" on the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The RUC is almost always about 50 miles west of where things actually set up. I tried using this with the past storms and it did the same thing. You can almost say that whatever it shows will definitely be 30-50 miles east of what it depicts. 18Z a touch east of 17Z for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Definitely lightening up now, 31.6 F 3 mile visibility cant see anything falling outside, except a few flurries now and then. As soon as I typed that it started coming down harder lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The RUC will continue to move that band eastward until it ends up along the coast and over NYC. Don't keep watching it, it will just break your heart. Well the RUC is out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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