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NYC Area January 26-27 Bomb Discussion and OBS Part 3


earthlight

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<br />Nice lightning & thunder about 10 minutes ago while clearing some ice.  Trees iced over, moderate sleet in progress.  Winds are also picking up what a great night<br /><br /><img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/Snowman.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':snowman:' /><br />
<br /><br /><br />

80/20 Snow-Sleet Mix here...hopefully I avoided any significant changeover...

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mcd0051.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0618 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NJ...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...MUCH OF

CT...RI AND SERN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 270018Z - 270545Z

AS OF 00Z MIXED PRECIP TYPES OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND

SNOW WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ...LONG ISLAND

/INCLUDING NYC METRO/...CT...RI AND MA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD

TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PIVOT

NEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR ONE

INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM CNTRL NJ NEWD TO SERN MA.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SFC FREEZING LINE WAS FROM NEAR

PYM IN MA SWD ALONG THE CT SHORE TO NEAR PHL. FREEZING RAIN WAS

BEING REPORTED AT MANY LOCATIONS ON LONG ISLAND WITH INTERMITTENT

SNOW AND RAIN REPORTS ELSEWHERE. THE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE

THE DE/MD AND SRN NJ COASTS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA THE BACK SIDE OF

THE DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL ALLOW TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL

SNOW BY AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL FURTHER BE

SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED ASCENT ATTRIBUTED TO A FRONTOGENETIC BAND

BETWEEN 850-700 MB EVIDENT IN 23Z MESOANALYSIS.

ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MODEST ELEVATED CAPE

THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF

TIME TONIGHT.

EXPECT ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FROM CNTRL NJ THROUGH THE

NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AREA AS WELL AS MUCH OF CT AND INTO RI

STARTING AROUND 02Z TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND 09Z. HEAVIER SNOW WILL

SHIFT EWD INTO MA AROUND 05Z-06Z TONIGHT.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 01/27/2011

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