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NYC Area January 26-27 Bomb Discussion and OBS Part 3


earthlight

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Posted this in the other thread for Philly - but will post it here for New Yorkers :)

We picked up a dusting from this system over here in southern IL - parts of west KY received six to seven inches. Very narrow area. Looks nice this afternoon as I look off to the east on radar.

I uploaded some views from GREarth of your storm

Playing around with some of its capabilities. Thought some of you might like to see what it can do.

I also repositioned my GREarth online radar to cover your area for this afternoon with its precipitation typing algorithm

http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_grearth2.htm

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Napping on/off now, but I don't think we've mixed at all in Manhattan yet, and we currently have light-ish snow with some fat flakes coming down. Maybe 4" or so so far, but I have to go out and measure. Regardless, definitely overperformed so far, and I still feel good about upping my call to 8-16" with 10-12" most likely (although I'm beginning to be nervous that even a foot could be low if the deform band nails NYC as the RUC is showing).

Also, we've passed 40" for the winter and could potentially pass 50" if NYC gets 12"+. :snowman:

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NW shift. Can't believe NW Jersey actually has a shot. It's all good though. We have around 15" on the ground (12" old snow and about 3" new from today) and come Friday morning we should have 20+ on the ground with cold air in place, a clipper swinging through Sat and another "Potential" snow treat next week. what a winter. Snow lover's paradise.

http://www.twisterda...REF_SURFACE.png

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Both NAM and GFS indicate blizzard criteria being met for the eastern third of Suffolk County, LI tonight between around 8PM and midnight. A lot will depend on how well the deformation band holds together as it pushes east toward LI.

Already gusting to 27 kt at Atlantic City, 35 kt at Wildwood, NJ, 33 kt in Salisbury, MD, and 39 kt in Wallops Island, VA.

Keep in mind that both the NAM and GFS are already 2-3 mb too high on pressures over coastal NE NC/SE VA at 18z. On the other hand, the GFS is verifying too high on winds over eastern LI right now.

RUC indicates 40 kt gusts over the Twin Forks tonight!

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Both NAM and GFS indicate blizzard criteria being met for the eastern third of Suffolk County, LI tonight between around 8PM and midnight. A lot will depend on how well the deformation band holds together as it pushes east toward LI.

Already gusting to 27 kt at Atlantic City, 35 kt at Wildwood, NJ, 33 kt in Salisbury, MD, and 39 kt in Wallops Island, VA.

Keep in mind that both the NAM and GFS are already 2-3 mb too high on pressures over coastal NE NC/SE VA at 18z.

I think the three consecutive hour part of the criteria would make it tough to reach especially given the speed of this storm.

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I wouldn't call it 2 storms, just a break in the action or in some cases the precip may never totally shut off before the 2nd round later on. Same thing happened in Dec 95, Dec 03, where we had a burst of snow, break in the action/light precip and then heavy thump

They keep referring to this as 2 storms on TWC. Is that technically correct? As the radar fills in, I can't help but wonder if this is just one big beast coming together. :hug:

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HM says all the 18z models are junk. None compare vs reality. Said watch sat/radar going forward.

Models are just one piece of the puzzle. Cannot totally disregard them but it is true much more weight is to be given to real time data such as radar, surface condtions, water vapor etc.

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