Radders Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It what direction does in run from there over this way? East to west... After the heaviest precip, it does lift north and we will have some icing... The question is, how much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro update on weekend and beyond: Moderate hit for the area this weekend - looks like all snow.. Tough to know how much falls given the precip maps that i have aren't great and the first storm is getting in the way, but probably around 0.5. We then get another disturbance move through from the great lakes on Monday (some light snow), then a cutter on weds, followed by arctic cold.. Plenty of potential here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks Rad for all the info, looks like the Euro and GFS are pretty much on the same page as far as how much precip for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RUC and NAM trends from the last several runs are keep showing more and more cold air draining in across the HV. should be quite a fun morning tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RUC and NAM trends from the last several runs are keep showing more and more cold air draining in across the HV. should be quite a fun morning tomorrow... Hey Quincy, I saw in the other thread that snywx suggested you stop by over here. Glad to see that you did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I love hiking that Schunemunk Ridge. I was actually caught in a snowstorm on there in April 1994.....fun day. We have 5 inches up here...down to a very light fine snow now. 14F. Snow coming down pretty good now here in Orange County, 4.5"-5" so far. The snow has become a rods/graupel/flake mix. Interesting to note reporting station 1500' in elevation on Schunnemunk Mountain has dropped a few degrees to 14* in the past hour. http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYNEWWI5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, not good, Tom. I've been busy this morning, the change because they see more ice coming than any with round 2 I'm guessing? Rob I haven't had a chance to look at anything but I assume the mid levels warmed faster then they thought, we switched to IP and freezing dizzle around 10'ish with some flakes now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro update on weekend and beyond: Moderate hit for the area this weekend - looks like all snow.. Tough to know how much falls given the precip maps that i have aren't great and the first storm is getting in the way, but probably around 0.5. We then get another disturbance move through from the great lakes on Monday (some light snow), then a cutter on weds, followed by arctic cold.. Plenty of potential here.. I read somewhere this morning that JB declaired winter over in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm working from home today, I was taking my Wife to work, I was backing out and slipped off the edge of the driveway and in to the 4 foot ditch that runs alongside it. The pilot was on a 30 degree angle the left side in the ditch and the right side on the driveway and the driveway unknown to me had an inch of ice an long the side under light snow cover. What a PIA it was getting out. 4WD FTW. I had 3.7 of snow this morning. Just sleet and freezing dizzle since. 19F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm working from home today, I was taking my Wife to work, I was backing out and slipped off the edge of the driveway and in to the 4 foot ditch that runs alongside it. The pilot was on a 30 degree angle the left side in the ditch and the right side on the driveway and the driveway unknown to me had an inch of ice an long the side under light snow cover. What a PIA it was getting out. 4WD FTW. I had 3.7 of snow this morning. Just sleet and freezing dizzle since. 19F Glad to hear that you got it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's totally saturated out there. Whatever this next one does when it gets here the front end is gonna thump. I know better than to hope that because it's 20* it'll be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 tiny little ice crystals falling out of the sky right now.... hear's to hoping for another front end thump of 3-5 inches before the inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyR Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Very light freezing drizzle all the way from Catskill to Pleasant Valley on my drive home from work. Just enough to start encasing my car in ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 21Z RUC says yuck for Orange, Rockland, on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Glad to hear that you got it out. The ice came from one of the gutter drain pipes. Talk about unintended consequences. I cleared as much snow and ice off the roof Saturday as I could. Sunday was sunny and in the 20’s so the gutters must have started working for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 A few flurries and 13F here now.. 5.2" fell today. Very light freezing drizzle all the way from Catskill to Pleasant Valley on my drive home from work. Just enough to start encasing my car in ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 4.5" fell today.. Hoping to get away with a front-end thump.. Definitely going to be doing battle with the 850s and warm nose tonight/tomorrow morning before all goes IP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Is everybody else under freezing mist? I'm working on over four hours of this stuff now. At least it's not accreting here ... yet. I just don't know what to make of what's coming. It looks like we have about 4 to as many as 8 hours of 850's around +1 or so. I can't tell how thick the warm layer is so I'm not sure how badly it's gonna affect us (LHV from central Westchester to lower Dutchess). 700 looks fantastic for good snow growth. I know I said I was going to give up on models for a while but I can't help it especially as (I think) I'm understanding what I'm reading better. Visually it appears that the storm is running into a cold wall but the N-S depth of the ice that's falling right now has me worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Is everybody else under freezing mist? I'm working on over four hours of this stuff now. At least it's not accreting here ... yet. I just don't know what to make of what's coming. It looks like we have about 4 to as many as 8 hours of 850's around +1 or so. I can't tell how thick the warm layer is so I'm not sure how badly it's gonna affect us (LHV from central Westchester to lower Dutchess). 700 looks fantastic for good snow growth. I know I said I was going to give up on models for a while but I can't help it especially as (I think) I'm understanding what I'm reading better. Visually it appears that the storm is running into a cold wall but the N-S depth of the ice that's falling right now has me worried. Going by the 23Z RUC, we need the qpf to come in quickly and hard between 11pm and 6am.. This window is our best shot at accumulating snow where 850s stay close to zero in our area.. After 5am/6am tomorrow, it's looks very dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Going by the 23Z RUC, we need the qpf to come in quickly and hard between 11pm and 6am.. This window is our best shot at accumulating snow where 850s stay close to zero in our area.. After 5am/6am tomorrow, it's looks very dicey. I would take the front end thump to cut down on the ice. I can see the sheen on the trees now. Temp just made a huge jump up now to19.2, it has been at 19.0 for the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The freezing mist in the HV is a low level feature though I'd say. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will fall when the heavier echoes move in. Maybe you'll get lucky and the intensity of the precip. will overcome the warm wedge and fall as snow or a snow/sleet mixture for awhile. I would take the front end thump to cut down on the ice. I can see the sheen on the trees now. Temp just made a huge jump up now 19.2 it has been at 19.0 for the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anyone know if the SREF over does precip? The lastest run pounds the area with, about three times the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The freezing mist in the HV is a low level feature though I'd say. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will fall when the heavier echoes move in. Maybe you'll get lucky and the intensity of the precip. will overcome the warm wedge and fall as snow or a snow/sleet mixture for awhile. Thanks, Don't need the extra ice. Winds are to pick up wed night. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 641 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLY COMPLEX SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WED... WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE INTERIOR...AND FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN AND POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES FOR COASTAL AREAS. LOW PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK NE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO WESTERN NY BY WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT AND MAKE A RUN AT NYC WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND POSITIONING OF THE LOW...WHERE THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THE GEFS AND EVEN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK AMONG THE MODELS. SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM LATE TONIGHT...AND AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION...WILL GENERALLY EXPECT FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE. H8 TEMPS WILL WARM TO 0-2C ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO 2-4C FOR THE SOUTH. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR NOT WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 20S...THIS SETS UP FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT. ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THESE AREAS...AS UP TO 1/2" ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... GENERALLY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NYC...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4" ARE EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 IN SOME SPOTS ON LONG ISLAND. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN WED MORNING ACROSS NYC/COASTAL NJ/LONG ISLAND AROUND 9AM...AND THEN AROUND NOON FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CT. WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE DAY...SO WILL REMOVE FROM FCST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN THE REGION...COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WED. FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NW CT...TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL ON WED. SO ALL PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND NO PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS...WALKWAYS... TREES AND POWER LINES. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES CAN BE EXPECTED TO FALL...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. EVEN AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY AND NOT THE ICE STORM WARNING SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS...AS 1/4" OF ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY WED EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY AS SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST. WITH STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THIS INTENSE SYSTEM...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE LOCAL AREA WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO THE 20S...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A RAPID FREEZE OF ANY LIQUID ON UNTREATED AND POSSIBLY EVEN TREATED SURFACES. TRAVEL WED NIGHT COULD BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Thanks, Don't need the extra ice. Winds are to pick up wed night. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 641 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 Its going to be a long day tomorrow. Still 19F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Its going to be a long day tomorrow. Still 19F here Yuppers. A stay at home day tomorrow. As OKX mentioned in their AFD The clustering of the models are taking a slower track where the NAM is quicker. The SREF's you posted could have more QPF due to the slower speed. We'll see what the 00z runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yuppers. A stay at home day tomorrow. As OKX mentioned in their AFD The clustering of the models are taking a slower track where the NAM is quicker. The SEEFS you posted could have more QPF due to the speed. Wanna tell me boss we can stay home too? Central Hudson had called my Mom's last night-she's 87-and was told to make plans in case the power goes out. Hope not to have a repeat of last Feb with the power outages. Still just the misty stuff around right now-would really rather it stay snow than the ice business. It's going to be a mess either way-stay safe on the roads in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Wanna tell me boss we can stay home too? Central Hudson had called my Mom's last night-she's 87-and was told to make plans in case the power goes out. Hope not to have a repeat of last Feb with the power outages. Still just the misty stuff around right now-would really rather it stay snow than the ice business. It's going to be a mess either way-stay safe on the roads in the morning. Stay safe too. Hope they put a State of emerg. up for tomorrow. Then you boss would have to comply (if he has a heart). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 just took a look outside to see what the echos over me are, and it looks like light snow right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Stay safe too. Hope they put a State of emerg. up for tomorrow. Then you boss would have to comply (if he has a heart). Ha! I wish! I work for a durable medical goods company and we supply oxygen. We are considered medical-so state of emergencies-we go in. But I drive a Chevy Silverado 2500HD 4x4-snow doesn't stop me. I was just outside-still misting around-it's like it's waiting to roar overnight. Already two districts-Beacon and Pawling have closed for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 .The school districts are so easy in the HV right up to Albany... ..though tomorrow will be justified. The kids here had school today all day through 5 to 6 inches of snowfall. They got them in when there was only a couple inches accumulation and then it had lightened after noon so no the buses ran normally going home. Tomorrow I'm sure will be a snow day. Ha! I wish! I work for a durable medical goods company and we supply oxygen. We are considered medical-so state of emergencies-we go in. But I drive a Chevy Silverado 2500HD 4x4-snow doesn't stop me. I was just outside-still misting around-it's like it's waiting to roar overnight. Already two districts-Beacon and Pawling have closed for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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