Radders Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looking at the 12Z NAM, we seem to be on the brink of more frozen precip vs. frz rain... 850s run just north of our area across the top of Dutchess Co. Hoping for a slight jog to the south now, and we are still 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So what's the thinking for Tues-Thurs? Looks to me like a mid morning start on Tuesday and it's all white then it breaks for a bit and goes to sleet for an ung*dly long time before it goes back to a bit of white at the end. I for one will be surprised if anyplace above central Westchester goes above freezing for the lower couple thousand feet. Whatever happens I have a feeling my ride home from work in the city on Tuesday is gonna SUKKKKK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Heh, simultaneous post and Radders was in the process of answering my question as I was typing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Heh, simultaneous post and Radders was in the process of answering my question as I was typing it. Yeah, just saw your post the second after I posted!! I think it could be a really close call, especially for areas north of I84.. Models tend to overdo the surge of warmer 850s - I remember this on 2/26 last year.. It could go either way, but I would not be surprised at all, if this trends colder aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah 84 is certainly the "high country" break but after 15 years living here I've noticed the the real weather break is right around Mt Kisco>Yorktown. Either way it looks like another day or two off from school for the kiddies and an unreasonable amount of time with a shovel in the hands of the more "mature" of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyR Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've gotta think that, until the pattern changes, this storm is gonna snow where it has been snowing all season. That Canadian PV isn't gonna give up any ground, so I think by the time this shakes out, the snow/non-snow line doesn't get much further north than White Plains, and somebody between Albany and WP is gonna get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've gotta think that, until the pattern changes, this storm is gonna snow where it has been snowing all season. That Canadian PV isn't gonna give up any ground, so I think by the time this shakes out, the snow/non-snow line doesn't get much further north than White Plains, and somebody between Albany and WP is gonna get smoked. I'm concerned with the NAM showing a 3-4" front end of snow and another 1" of ZR. Could have power issues. Surface temps. don't go above freezing thru the event. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can one of you guys explain to me about "heights." I sorta understand that the prime snowgrowth region is around 700mb but everybody is always worried about 850's. These numbers correlate to a particular altitude I take it but do they also have a relation to atmospheric pressures or.....? What altitude do these numbers correlate to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The lower HV and City may do pretty well Tuesday from that waa bout.... I also am supposed to be down there Tuesday and joping that will get cancelled. Looks like I may be able to beat it in the AM, but things will deteriorate rapidly. For me it is a 160 mile drive. ..leave at 5 AM maybe. So what's the thinking for Tues-Thurs? Looks to me like a mid morning start on Tuesday and it's all white then it breaks for a bit and goes to sleet for an ung*dly long time before it goes back to a bit of white at the end. I for one will be surprised if anyplace above central Westchester goes above freezing for the lower couple thousand feet. Whatever happens I have a feeling my ride home from work in the city on Tuesday is gonna SUKKKKK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Actually this event has a very Jan/Feb 1994-ish look about it. Those events were sw flow WAA and the line between ice storms in the city and snowstorms in the HV was very tight in several events. Basically wait and see if what falls..... Yeah, just saw your post the second after I posted!! I think it could be a really close call, especially for areas north of I84.. Models tend to overdo the surge of warmer 850s - I remember this on 2/26 last year.. It could go either way, but I would not be surprised at all, if this trends colder aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 850 MB will flucutuate, but 5000 feet is a general average. For this kind of event you may get the warm wedge up around 5500-7000 in the sleet zones so 850 could be marginally under 0C and still yield sleet. As it actually gets into the accuracy range of the models I'll take the time to look at the soundings...not gonna bother much yet. Can one of you guys explain to me about "heights." I sorta understand that the prime snowgrowth region is around 700mb but everybody is always worried about 850's. These numbers correlate to a particular altitude I take it but do they also have a relation to atmospheric pressures or.....? What altitude do these numbers correlate to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Actually this event has a very Jan/Feb 1994-ish look about it. Those events were sw flow WAA and the line between ice storms in the city and snowstorms in the HV was very tight in several events. Basically wait and see if what falls..... OKX thoughts. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1111 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH...WOULD EXPECT THE ONLY IMPACT TO BE CLOUD COVER. WHILE A STRAY SNOW SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...ASSESS THE PROBABILITY AT UNDER 15%...HENCE A DRY FORECAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...RUNNING A RAD WARMER THAN FORECAST...SO BUMPED UP HIGHS BY BLENDING IN A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WITH THE RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL TO MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLES THE DEPARTING HIGH TO THE NORTH. IT SEEMS TO WASH THE HIGH OUT TOO QUICKLY AS THE HIGH QUICKLY DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF AND GLOBAL GEM ALL HAVE THE HIGH NORTH OF THE REGION...STRETCHED OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR DAMMING TO OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ALL SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COLDER MAV/GFS NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. ON TUESDAY HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S...HOWEVER LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It won't happen, but the 18Z NAM is a weenie wet dream for the Hudson Valley.. 1.5+ qpf and NO MIXING! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM is showing 16.5" of snow for KPOU with no mixing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 yeah 15-18" areawide for the HV.. lol Hey you never know! The way this winter is going i wouldnt doubt it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can one of you guys explain to me about "heights." I sorta understand that the prime snowgrowth region is around 700mb but everybody is always worried about 850's. These numbers correlate to a particular altitude I take it but do they also have a relation to atmospheric pressures or.....? What altitude do these numbers correlate to? 850 MB will fluctuate, but 5000 feet is a general average. For this kind of event you may get the warm wedge up around 5500-7000 in the sleet zones so 850 could be marginally under 0C and still yield sleet. As it actually gets into the accuracy range of the models I'll take the time to look at the soundings...not gonna bother much yet. Feels kinda weird to quote myself So if 850 is ~5k what approximate altitude difference is there for each 50mb difference? Does the altitude go up/down consistently per 50mb? Obviously the question relates to how to read soundings but there are so many other tools available when these things are better understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18Z GFS takes a step towards the NAM.. 850s now cut across Northern Putnam/Southern Dutchess... Definitely colder than 12Z.. Can't deny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18Z GFS takes a step towards the NAM.. 850s now cut across Northern Putnam/Southern Dutchess... Definitely colder than 12Z.. Can't deny that. GFS QPF output almost supports the NAM's suspiciously high totals, too. I'm liking the most recent model developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS QPF output almost supports the NAM's suspiciously high totals, too. I'm liking the most recent model developments. Me too... Although I am very cautious about them, but as I previously posted this morning, it would not surprise me at all, if the guidance trended colder as we head towards the event.. It would also not surprise me if they didn't! We are really on the fence with this one.. Fingers crossed... There are definitely some subtle differences with the High Pressure positioning, helping to shunt the low a little further south and increase the CAD across the area.. I have always been a bit suspicious of the surface low driving into the confluence that is being produced by the PV over E Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That new snowfall map that KALB puts out (see the storm thread) has 9" to 10" across southern Dutchess and 12" around the northern end of that county. 16" here. ...but I'll believe when I see it! Me too... Although I am very cautious about them, but as I previously posted this morning, it would not surprise me at all, if the guidance trended colder as we head towards the event.. It would also not surprise me if they didn't! We are really on the fence with this one.. Fingers crossed... There are definitely some subtle differences with the High Pressure positioning, helping to shunt the low a little further south and increase the CAD across the area.. I have always been a bit suspicious of the surface low driving into the confluence that is being produced by the PV over E Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0Z Nam KSWF all levels are below 32F except for hour 54 at which time the only level above 32 is 800mb, 0.5C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0Z Nam KSWF all levels are below 32F except for hour 54 at which time the only level above 32 is 800mb, 0.5C Liking the trends... We are still very close to sleet, but at least it is trending away from an ice storm with freezing rain.. That would be a horrendous situation for the area. NAM prints out between 8-12 inches for our area (north of 84) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z NAM Bufkit SWF-- 8.8" POU-- 10.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z NAM Bufkit SWF-- 8.8" POU-- 10.2" Snywx- how does it look my way in Monroe? Hopefully this one works out good for us here in the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just took a peek at the 0Z GFS data. It looks strange, 2M temps never get above 20F except for 12Z. Its 0Z init temp for KSWF is 4.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just took a peek at the 0Z GFS data. It looks strange, 2M temps never get above 20F except for 12Z. Its 0Z init temp for KSWF is 4.1 The 850s on the GFS kinda jump around all over the place... Not sure what to think other than it would definitely mean some pingers for most of the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anybody have soundings for the HV? I'm sold on a bunch of snow tomorrow but just don't know what to think for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anybody have soundings for the HV? I'm sold on a bunch of snow tomorrow but just don't know what to think for Wednesday. Here are the 6Z NAM bufkit for POU And here is the 6Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The 850s on the GFS kinda jump around all over the place... Not sure what to think other than it would definitely mean some pingers for most of the HV. I rechecked the strange data data this morning from the same run. It looks much more reasonable now I guess the website I used had issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.