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The Hudson Valley Thread Part 2

snywx

By snywx,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

what a dissapointment.... man... please Upton.. just drop all the warnings and advisories completely... I don't think any zone is getting any accumulation. Radar looks horrible.. it's all headed out to sea..

Yeah this storm was an utter fail....to think the Euro 2 days ago had NYC metro receiving in excess of 1.5" QPF. I've had .2" precipitation and am almost done, maybe one burst of snow from the banding near DC right now. Three days ago, the 12z Euro and 12z GFS were in agreement on a major Nor'easter affecting all of the East Coast with heavy snow and high winds: as it stands now, the Poconos are getting nothing, Albany is getting almost nothing, most of Vermont is seeing light accumulations with the only decent totals likely to be in the extreme Southern Greens. There will be a small zone of 8-12" snows from ORH to Downeast Maine, but that's hardly impressive. Upton was advertising 65mph winds and posting winter storm warnings, and this has basically turned into a few showers, almost an exact repeat of the 3/24 storm which looked promising until it decided to track 300 miles south of guidance and never develop a CCB.

In the end, wave interference cost us the storm; we just had too much of a split in the second piece of energy, and that final shortwave over the Northern Plains never really phased into the trough, which meant that the mid-levels don't tighten up until they approach Maine. Last night's 0z GFS showed a tightly closed 700mb low just NE of NYC; tonight's 0z run, to the contrary, doesn't have a closed contour at H7 until the Gulf of Maine. In the last three days, the models gradually backed away from the second storm really developing anew in the Mid Atlantic; the NAM was basically right in the idea that you'd just have a weak storm meandering off the coast gradually reinvigorated by the 2nd and 3rd shortwaves.

It's too bad, as this was probably the last chance for accumulating snowfall (and maybe even flakes in urban areas!)...and we blew it. We had a great set-up with a +PNA ridge axis centered over Boise ID, a blocking ridge near Hudson Bay, and a decent antecedent airmass considering the time of year. Beautiful pattern for an intense Nor'easter and we end up with a piece of garbage wave well off the coast. Disgusting.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted

A year ago today I had a high of 71, which would be the lowest high temp of the following week, what a difference a year makes. I need .40 to get to 60" of snow on the season, doesn't look like it's going to happen, oh well. This past season had a great 6 week or so stretch too bad it didn't last longer, it had the makings of a memorable overall winter for me.

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TJay

TJay

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what a dissapointment.... man... please Upton.. just drop all the warnings and advisories completely... I don't think any zone is getting any accumulation. Radar looks horrible.. it's all headed out to sea..

I don't envy Upton having to make these calls when guidance indicates a big event but reasonableness suggests a low percentage of verifying. The snow is mod to heavy now but only slightly accumulating on non-paved surfaces. Bring on spring Jay.

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TJay

TJay

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A year ago today I had a high of 71, which would be the lowest high temp of the following week, what a difference a year makes. I need .40 to get to 60" of snow on the season, doesn't look like it's going to happen, oh well. This past season had a great 6 week or so stretch too bad it didn't last longer, it had the makings of a memorable overall winter for me.

Hey Rob, go in to work late to get your readings before it melts :P , I think you'll hit it this morning.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

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Hey Rob, go in to work late to get your readings before it melts :P , I think you'll hit it this morning.

LOL. I don't think it would have mattered much as the microclimate IMBY isn't a great one for snowfall. For example I just had a little slush near my wipers on my car, that's it but as I drove from my house, 385' close to the Wallkill, up the hill in the park which reachs around 540' I could see a noticable difference.

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TJay

TJay

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LOL. I don't think it would have mattered much as the microclimate IMBY isn't a great one for snowfall. For example I just had a little slush near my wipers on my car, that's it but as I drove from my house, 385' close to the Wallkill, up the hill in the park which reachs around 540' I could see a noticable difference.

As soon as the snow rate backed off around 8AM whatever snow fell started melting fast.

50's for temps over the weekend and change for Tstorms on tuesday, I'll take it. :P

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nzucker

nzucker

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Posted

A year ago today I had a high of 71, which would be the lowest high temp of the following week, what a difference a year makes. I need .40 to get to 60" of snow on the season, doesn't look like it's going to happen, oh well. This past season had a great 6 week or so stretch too bad it didn't last longer, it had the makings of a memorable overall winter for me.

I beat you too...69.5" on the season here only 7 miles from NYC.

But agreed, this season sort of crapped out after a great start in Dec/Jan. Not much snow to speak of in the second half.

Picked up another inch through the day today... Mostly on car tops , trees, grassy surfaces.. At about 3pm I took a drive about a mile to about 1050' and there was widespread 3-4" .... Once below 600' no sign of any snowfall.. Elevation dependent to say the least.. Smh

Close, but no cigar.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

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I beat you too...69.5" on the season here only 7 miles from NYC.

But agreed, this season sort of crapped out after a great start in Dec/Jan. Not much snow to speak of in the second half.

I'm pretty sure everyone on the Internet knows who much snow youve had. You should have enjoyed the past two years because theres a reason our seasonal averages are higher up this way.

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nzucker

nzucker

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I'm pretty sure everyone on the Internet knows who much snow youve had. You should have enjoyed the past two years because theres a reason our seasonal averages are higher up this way.

Definitely, I'm only ribbing you guys....I'm sure we'll have another 01-02 where we get 7" at some point. Looking to move up north anyway.

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  • 2 weeks later...
IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted

It's starting off overcast and 45F here. I guess some people in the HV could push 80 today for the first time today.

52 here and overcast. Hopefully we can get some late day strong boomers before marine influence gets to them.

We need the overcast to breakup, the sooner the better for both to have a chance.

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historynerd

historynerd

Posted
Posted

We need the overcast to breakup, the sooner the better for both to have a chance.

It's starting to look better(ish):

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/207214_10150559063105195_221849125194_18602272_6537260_n.jpg

CAPE values for Albany...DCAPE is 482 J/kg...that's good for severe development BUT

We have a major cap on the atmosphere right now with pretty substantial inversion up top: http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/216948_217125678301731_147822285232071_1006976_2825987_n.jpg

If we can get the cap to lift or break, which I think we will with this sun and strong SW winds we'll see some substantial severe weather.

Dr. Forbes raised my TorCon to 3 or 4...that's high for this area.

In addition, from NWS Upton:

SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND ENTER THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME THIS EVENING...WITH MUCAPE 500-800 J/KG...BUT WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND H5 WINDS 80 KT...SO STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL BE IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT HAVE MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH TSTMS AS FAR EAST AS NASSAU/FAIRFIELD COUNTIES...IN AND CLOSE TO WARMEST AIR IN WARM SECTOR. LIKELY/CAT POP FORECAST FOR MOST INLAND SECTIONS...BUT ONLY CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND.

and NWS Albany:

AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST...SO SOME PERIODS OF SUN EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN WESTERN NY/PA COULD KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AS IS...BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES GET A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH A DECENT THERMAL AND MOISTURE LOW LEVEL BOUNDAY PROVIDING FORCING...SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted

I've already cut an area. Heard we had some tstorms early this morning around 3am. I slept right thru them.

I slept thru them too. There's been no need for me to cut anything yet, did you fertilize this spring? I'm trying something a little different this season, I haven't fertilized and don't plan to until summer although i did overseed. I fertilized last fall so the lawn got a feeding but the grass tends to grow rather well in spring anyway so I'm trying to avoid having to mow twice a week from May into June.

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TJay

TJay

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I slept thru them too. There's been no need for me to cut anything yet, did you fertilize this spring? I'm trying something a little different this season, I haven't fertilized and don't plan to until summer although i did overseed. I fertilized last fall so the lawn got a feeding but the grass tends to grow rather well in spring anyway so I'm trying to avoid having to mow twice a week from May into June.

I fertilized mid late Oct last year. I have not hit it yet I was waiting for forsythia and lilac to bloom. Lilic has and forsythia is out in Rockland so it should be out in Orange very soon. I'm going to hit it with a half dose this weekend and toss some seed down.

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Logan11

Logan11

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Forsythia is out in Saugerties where we have the cottage.... None here yet in the hills.

I fertilized mid late Oct last year. I have not hit it yet I was waiting for forsythia and lilac to bloom. Lilic has and forsythia is out in Rockland so it should be out in Orange very soon. I'm going to hit it with a half dose this weekend and toss some seed down.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted

Hudson Valley people ...if you have a season snowfall # and feel like sharing.....go to the SNE snowfall map thread over on the NE side. It looks like they could use more #s from the HV north of NYC and right up to ALB and GFL....

My final here was 102". ALB was 87" I believe.

I just posted my 60" total over there.

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TJay

TJay

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I wound up putting some seed down Sunday afternoon and no fert.

This thread is dead lol. Its hard to get excited about cloudy with rain/showers everyday :arrowhead: GFS is not indicating any major changes to the regime either - its a good spring to be a frog.

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