IrishRob17 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm surprised that we have a Watch already, and for 5-10". It's possible but I have a feeling that we could end up more wet than wet, unless your up at 1000' and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm surprised that we have a Watch already, and for 5-10". It's possible but I have a feeling that we could end up more wet than wet, unless your up at 1000' and above. Watch it work out where we have a 1/2 of slush on the grassy surfaces and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Watch it work out where we have a 1/2 of slush on the grassy surfaces and that's it. or maybe not In think that anything is still possible of todays 12z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 or maybe not In think that anything is still possible of todays 12z's 12z Euro looks pretty good for us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 For the NAM inside of 40 hours to be east and drier than the MECS the GFS shows is a concern. To get a MECS in early spring you'd need "... the moon in the Seventh House And Jupiter aligned with Mars, Then peace will guide the planets And love will steer the stars" Seriously its going to be fun to track this and see it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 For the NAM inside of 40 hours to be east and drier than the MECS the GFS shows is a concern. To get a MECS in early spring you'd need "... the moon in the Seventh House And Jupiter aligned with Mars, Then peace will guide the planets And love will steer the stars" Seriously its going to be fun to track this and see it play out. At the least it should be enough to push me over 60" for the season, I'm just a couple tenths short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 From the NYC board I asked about KPOU for the 12z Euro: KPOU total qpf 1.53 850's below 0 the entire time. Surface temps 33-35 degrees. Looking good for at least 6'', probably more like 8''. Higher elevations are going to see some impressive totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Higher elevations are going to see some impressive totals. This much seems to be a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 For the NAM inside of 40 hours to be east and drier than the MECS the GFS shows is a concern. To get a MECS in early spring you'd need "... the moon in the Seventh House And Jupiter aligned with Mars, Then peace will guide the planets And love will steer the stars" Seriously its going to be fun to track this and see it play out. NAM caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 NAM caves NAM has def. shifted west & I dont think its done... Playin catch up to every other model.. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 So I guess most of us aren't all that excited about this storm if I was basing that on the activity in this thread I keep going back and forth on it, maybe I'll get more into it later today. Luckily we don't look to be the bullseye which is fine by me because this is going to be a wet snow for sure that could do alot of damage, hopefully my cleaned up yard will still be that way on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 So I guess most of us aren't all that excited about this storm if I was basing that on the activity in this thread I keep going back and forth on it, maybe I'll get more into it later today. Luckily we don't look to be the bullseye which is fine by me because this is going to be a wet snow for sure that could do alot of damage, hopefully my cleaned up yard will still be that way on Saturday. GFS & NAM has drastically cut qpf for the region. This whole season has been a d*** tease for us. lol Oh well... Bring on the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 Latest Upton snowmap.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Latest Upton snowmap.. http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php Interesting, they bumped up snow totals for most of Orange County. I can't lie though, I hope to wake up to everything blastered in white tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 So I guess most of us aren't all that excited about this storm if I was basing that on the activity in this thread I keep going back and forth on it, maybe I'll get more into it later today. Luckily we don't look to be the bullseye which is fine by me because this is going to be a wet snow for sure that could do alot of damage, hopefully my cleaned up yard will still be that way on Saturday. That sums up my feelings as well.. With forecasted low IMBY is 32F, tomorrows high is 39F. Its going to be tuff for snow to accum once the sun comes up tomorrow unless those temps are lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 That sums up my feelings as well.. With forecasted low IMBY is 32F, tomorrows high is 39F. Its going to be tuff for snow to accum once the sun comes up tomorrow unless those temps are lower. If its gonna stick its gonna have to come down fast and furious tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If its gonna stick its gonna have to come down fast and furious tonight. The 12Z NAM is starting to back off again. Lower precip and further east with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 12Z NAM is starting to back off again. Lower precip and further east with the low. Same with the 12Z GFS... The 12z NAM came in with .73'' of liquid here in Poughkeepsie (less west, more east)...the temps will be marginal at the surface and hovering around 32-34 during the duration of the storm. It's warm right now at 43 so it will be quite a difficult task to get snow to stick on the roads until it starts snowing at 1''+ an hour (that doesn't mean it will be sticking at that rate) which I do think will happen later in the night. However, .73'' of liquid does not mean 6'' of snow...in fact, I'm thinking more like 3-6'' at most based on the 12z NAM. The 6Z GFS came in with about .75'' for the northern area. Again, probably around 2-6'', 3-6''. Albany NWS is very optimistic with totals- here is their map: I am surprised to see that they think 6-7'' is possible here in southern Ulster and Dutchess given the temperatures and qpf but that's fine. Upton has as follows: Again, even more optimistic. Maybe they are seeing something I am not but the valley does not play the "perfect boundary line" when it comes to snow accumulations this time of year. Warm air will make it difficult for the snow to change to and begin sticking. I'm thinking, unless temperatures start dropping, it will start as rain for us up here and then change over around 9 or 10pm...maybe later. The fact is even 3'' of the heavy wet snow we're getting will weigh trees and powerlines down. Throw in a couple gusts of 30mph and I think we may see some power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Same with the 12Z GFS... The 12z NAM came in with .73'' of liquid here in Poughkeepsie (less west, more east)...the temps will be marginal at the surface and hovering around 32-34 during the duration of the storm. It's warm right now at 43 so it will be quite a difficult task to get snow to stick on the roads until it starts snowing at 1''+ an hour (that doesn't mean it will be sticking at that rate) which I do think will happen later in the night. However, .73'' of liquid does not mean 6'' of snow...in fact, I'm thinking more like 3-6'' at most based on the 12z NAM. The 6Z GFS came in with about .75'' for the northern area. Again, probably around 2-6'', 3-6''. Albany NWS is very optimistic with totals- here is their map: I am surprised to see that they think 6-7'' is possible here in southern Ulster and Dutchess given the temperatures and qpf but that's fine. Upton has as follows: Again, even more optimistic. Maybe they are seeing something I am not but the valley does not play the "perfect boundary line" when it comes to snow accumulations this time of year. Warm air will make it difficult for the snow to change to and begin sticking. I'm thinking, unless temperatures start dropping, it will start as rain for us up here and then change over around 9 or 10pm...maybe later. The fact is even 3'' of the heavy wet snow we're getting will weigh trees and powerlines down. Throw in a couple gusts of 30mph and I think we may see some power outages. I think there will be downward adjustments coming this afternoon especialy west of the Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Nice post, Historynerd, we're on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Nice post, Historynerd, we're on the same page. Thanks man...I'm usually posting on the ABC7 Weather Chat but I check in here occasionally when things are slow because those city folk are cranky that they're not getting snow, lol. I do agree, though, if the 18z's come in dry we may be talking about 1-3'' rather than 3-6''...Albany just reissued my WSW for 5-12'' so they're keeping the hope. I just don't know...I think we're on the low end of 3-6'' right now, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like models are making their usual late southeast shift...we'll see if it holds. 6z NAM last night looked great, now 12z is mostly east of here although still .5 to up to 1" of liquid in southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like models are making their usual late southeast shift...we'll see if it holds. 6z NAM last night looked great, now 12z is mostly east of here although still .5 to up to 1" of liquid in southern areas. Yeah today’s 0Z NAM caved from its east and flat solution it’s had all along and immediately started making easterly and flatter corrections on subsequent runs today. I read in another thread the 12Z euro is now east of the BM with less than .25 precip for nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 stupid models that we pay millions of taxpayer dollars to develop and they can't get it right And we're supposed to forecast hurricanes with these? We're better off licking our finger and seeing which way the wind is blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 stupid models that we pay millions of taxpayer dollars to develop and they can't get it right And we're supposed to forecast hurricanes with these? We're better off licking our finger and seeing which way the wind is blowing. Yeah, they really dropped the ball again but I'm not disappointed, now when this happens in the heart of winter that is a different story for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah, they really dropped the ball again but I'm not disappointed, now when this happens in the heart of winter that is a different story for sure! Something went terribly wrong this season. I mean it wasnt just one model this season... Its 90% of them failing miserably. Do we still have poor sampling areas out west or up in Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Something went terribly wrong this season. I mean it wasnt just one model this season... Its 90% of them failing miserably. Do we still have poor sampling areas out west or up in Canada? I remember reading an article over the winter that mentioned this was the main problem with the models this season since the northern stream was the main driving force this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 I remember reading an article over the winter that mentioned this was the main problem with the models this season since the northern stream was the main driving force this year. Makes sense.. For a couple of the big ones this yr most models didnt have a clue till inside 30hrs or so.. Pretty amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think that's about it for this season. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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