TJay Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The NAM quite much lighter with the QPF in recent runs, which is a bit odd. I'll take it. Main precip load is south of us for the last 3 or 4 runs. surface temps borderline except after sunset. maybe we'll luck out with a few inches on the grass and nothing on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It looks like the NAM is pushing the higher QPF to our south and west. Did you get anything on the ground yesterday? i heard that there wasn't much on the east side of the county. I had 2" IMBY that was still around last night but is mostly gone this morning. Yes, little on the east side from what I seen, South Rockland had about 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 I saw this in the NYC thread, it looks like it nails us 12z RGEM http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Honestly... I think Orange County is gonna jackpot with this one.. 6-8" may not be out of the question especially for areas above 500'.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Honestly... I think Orange County is gonna jackpot with this one.. 6-8" may not be out of the question especially for areas above 500'.. Honestly....I think snywx is gonna jackpot with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Honestly....I think snywx is gonna jackpot with this one... Please I hope not.. Its time for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Please I hope not.. Its time for spring It will be interesting to see the difference between your 850' elevation and my 385'. I want spring too but it will be hot and humid before we know it, and that's my least favorite weather. If life (or the weather in this case) is throwing you lemons I say make lemonade....and throw in a splash of vodka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Please I hope not.. Its time for spring can you take one for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 can you take one for the team. Umm I guess I can do it just this one time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 It will be interesting to see the difference between your 850' elevation and my 385'. I want spring too but it will be hot and humid before we know it, and that's my least favorite weather. If life (or the weather in this case) is throwing you lemons I say make lemonade....and throw in a splash of vodka One good thing about tomrrow is that im already off from work ... Will def. provide updates throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 18z GFS... MGJ-- 1.57" all snow SWF-- 1.38" all snow 18z NAM... MGJ-- .91" all snow SWF-- .86" all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Ouch. It will be interesting to watch it all play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z GFS... MGJ-- 1.57" all snow SWF-- 1.38" all snow 18z NAM... MGJ-- .91" all snow SWF-- .86" all snow 18z GFS for KSWF 11.9" of snow http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kswf 18z NAM for KSWF 10.4" of snow http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kswf I tried to run KMGJ on the link and it did not come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Upton for mby Wednesday: Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 35. East wind between 3 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 26. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. I'm still thinking a few inches on grass. Mostly because I am wishcasting but the temps are still marginal during the day and evening and we don't usually do good with QPF when storms bowl due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z GFS for KSWF 11.9" of snow http://www.meteor.ia...=gfsm&site=kswf 18z NAM for KSWF 10.4" of snow http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kswf I tried to run KMGJ on the link and it did not come up. I dont think bufkit works for MGJ.. Only SWF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I dont think bufkit works for MGJ.. Only SWF.. Ok thanks, I ran KPOU and they came in with a bit less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I already had 1" IMBY when I left 30 minutes ago, roads just wet though. There was a noticable amount less in Goshen with much lighter snow but it has just picked up in intensity in Goshen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Elevation is making a slight impact right now.. About 3" or so here while on the eastern side of Middletown I eyeballed alittle less than 2".. Temp of 30* Lgt Snow falling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I already had 1" IMBY when I left 30 minutes ago, roads just wet though. There was a noticable amount less in Goshen with much lighter snow but it has just picked up in intensity in Goshen now. It was quite heavy in Goshen from 7am to around 8am then backed off to almost nothing. Nothing but some isolated snow showers on radar now either all the way back to KBGM. Coming in this morning it was snow to around Tuxedo, temp there 33F and sleet. Suffern 34F and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Not much snow overnight in Orange, Putnam, and upper Westchester. Judging from the obs, the heavier precip stayed south in Jersey and the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 the temps have remained fairly steady this morning 29F, and remain below the forecasted high temp of 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 the temps have remained fairly steady this morning 29F, and remain below the forecasted high temp of 35. Yeah never made it above freezing here.. Current temp is 29.7* Have had lgt snow all day but hasnt amounted to much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah never made it above freezing here.. Current temp is 29.7* Have had lgt snow all day but hasnt amounted to much.. I expect the warning should be downgraded soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bm555 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I expect the warning should be downgraded soon Upton just updated and has our area 6-8". Isn't the snow supposed to intensify from the coastal and without the sun angle it should accumulate. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Upton just updated and has our area 6-8". Isn't the snow supposed to intensify from the coastal and without the sun angle it should accumulate. http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php Yeah I seen the update. Problem is there isn't a lot of qpf as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah I seen the update. Problem is there isn't a lot of qpf as of now That update cut back the totals by a couple of inches for most of Orange County. I'm not surprised and I think most of us knew that this storm had bust potential, at least for the higher end accumulations. The radar is not impressive but we'll see what happens this evening. I laugh at all the schools that closed and had early dismissal, what a waste. Earlier this afternoon it was easily bright enough outside for sunglasses even with the snow falling, a good example of the difference between a mid winter snowstorm and and a late season/spring snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Snow has picked up in intensity out this way... Roads are now becoming snow covered once again.. Temp also has dropped to 28.7* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Snow has picked up in intensity out this way... Roads are now becoming snow covered once again.. Temp also has dropped to 28.7* I noticed that here too, right after I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 I noticed that here too, right after I posted I think we are all gonna be in for a surprise if that convection out in W PA & OH can make it in here.. BTW.. Flakes are huge right now! lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 That update cut back the totals by a couple of inches for most of Orange County. I'm not surprised and I think most of us knew that this storm had bust potential, at least for the higher end accumulations. The radar is not impressive but we'll see what happens this evening. I laugh at all the schools that closed and had early dismissal, what a waste. Earlier this afternoon it was easily bright enough outside for sunglasses even with the snow falling, a good example of the difference between a mid winter snowstorm and and a late season/spring snowstorm. Yeah, my kids were let go at 10:30am. Its crazy around Pittsburg now, two Tornado warnings, lots of t-storms and mesocyclones, a nice MCS. If that comes thru later tonight I can see us hitting Uptons totals but it likely will slide south of us if it holds together. Otherwise there is nothing to speak of out there now. Maybe it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think we are all gonna be in for a surprise if that convection out in W PA & OH can make it in here.. BTW.. Flakes are huge right now! lol.. That's what could be interesting, about 2" on the grass here at home with light snow now, it wasn't doing anything about 15 minutes ago. I heard heard some sleet pings on he windshield on the drive home and some sleet pellets on my deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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