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The Hudson Valley Thread Part 2


snywx

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Got some water in the cellar down at the Saugerties cottage yesterday, but it had already mostly drained out by 5 PM so not one of the worst. A lot of roads were closed earlier in the town and I had to traverse some areas of 6 inch water over a few back roads in the upper part of Saugerties and lower part of the Town of Catskill (Kaaterskill Creek) ...but I have seen worse certainly. Schools were closed though because of blocked roads early in the day.

Back home here in Knox.... still essentially 100% white ground and rather deep yet in the woods ...will measure later. We had some snow showers earlier leaving maybe a .2" dusting. That was the remains of the old deformation snows that left 2 to 4 inches in western NY yesterday.

One of the delivery options for the rain gauge is via " SpeeDee Delivery"

EDMrMcFeeley.jpg

I thought that guy McFeeley (holy smokes what a creepy name) retired in the 70's.... :lol:

I am going to order it.

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Today looks to be a fine day, looking ahead to the weekend we get skunked again. At least the grass is starting to turn green.:thumbsup:

Happy St. Patricks Day everyone, beware of the Plastic Paddies today!

Have a good day Rob!

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Snow tires back on the car? Told ya that by changing them I was guaranteeing more snow :weight_lift:

LOL I was cleaning out the garage and was going to put the snowblower away today. I left it out in the back yard and was going to drain the gas out. I looked at the forcast just before doing so.:snowman:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

324 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BLOCKING WITH REX BLOCK OVER

CENTRAL CANADA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...THUS LEAVING EASTERN

CANADA UNDER A POLAR VORTEX. A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO

NEGATIVE NAO.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS WELL FORECAST (LOW SPREAD) BY THE

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE

SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY

ROTATING AROUND THE VORTEX. THE FIRST OF THIS OCCURS LATE

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF EFS AND 12Z

GEFS...SPREAD IS LOW FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH THE REGION

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED "NORLUN" TROUGH FEATURED FOR

THURSDAY. THUS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PCPN STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTN

INTO THURSDAY.

P-TYPE IS CHALLENGING WITH GEFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST

ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW THURSDAY MORNING WITH QPF OF OVER A HALF INCH

BEING THE 30-50% RANGE. THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GEFS GIVES MINIMAL

WARNING LEVEL SNOW AT KSWF. FOR NOW...KEEPING IT MIX FOR COAST

WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE AS TEMPS/THICKNESSES ARE MARGINAL.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...PCPN SHOULD

END...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REQUIRES CARRYING LOW POPS INTO THURSDAY

EVENING. NW FLOW/COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. SOME

FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS.

TEMPS ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.-- End Changed Discussion --

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I certainly wouldn't have taken them off before March 20th. ;)

I don't use snow tires so doesn't matter... I got rid of most of the snow on the lawn, and still a handful of much diminished snow banks remaining. Most woods still have full snow cover.

So I have been raking stone back off the lawn - left by the many plowings. If we get more plowable snows, I'm doing a very basic minimal job because the sun will make fast work of a few inches left etc....not gonna put more gravel on the lawn after all my work.

.

So whadday'all think for the morning? Need the snow tires back on the car or hope for a quick warmup and still make it to work by 11?

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Buds on trees Check

Day Lilies coming up Check

Grass turning green Check

Heavy snow AM 30 foot visibility on I87 Check

:axe:

The 850's for later this week are oh so close to being a rain storm, we can always hope

Upton's snow map Check

http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php

18z NAM Check

http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kswf

Uptons AFD Check

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

446 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IMPACTS CWA DIRECTLY FROM EARLY

WED MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BASED ON DETAILED ANALYSIS OF

ENSEMBLES/GLOBAL/OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH 12Z

GFS FOR OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT

NAM/WRF HOWEVER...WITH MAYBE A 75 TO 25 PERCENT SPLIT IN THE TWO

SOLUTIONS. NAM IS DEEPER...SLOWER WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND

SFC LOW.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA TUESDAY.

ALOFT...RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO UPSTREAM UPPER MID WEST TROUGH.

THIS TROUGH TRAVERSES EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWERING

HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY...MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND

HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

DECENT MIXING DEPTH AND TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -4 AT H850 HPA WOULD

SUGGEST MAX TEMPS AROUND 50 OR IN THE 50S.

CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...WARM AIR

ADVECTION...ASSOCIATED LIFT AND PRECIP ENCROACHES ON THE AREA.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...UPPER 20S INTERIOR AND

MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.

SFC LOW QUICKLY MOVES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST FROM WED MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT WE SHOULD OBSERVE WINTRY PRECIP...WITH

BORDERLINE TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. AMPLE LIFT...AND CHILLY AIR

IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING YET CHALLENGING FORECAST.

IN SPITE OF THE LATE MARCH DATE...LATEST RUN OF THE NAM/WRF WOULD

SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE

IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...MAINLY SRN

CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...I CANNOT RULE OUT

WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE

LOW PASSES SOUTH. ADVISORY SNOWS FURTHER SOUTH...BUT MUCH LESS

LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. GFS WEAKER...WARMER AND QUICKER WITH

OVERALL SYSTEM...KEEPING AMOUNTS DOWN.

WARMER SFC TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PREVENT

SNOW FROM STICKING AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

TEMPS RISE LITTLE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP WEDNESDAY...WITH READINGS

LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE 30S.

BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TEMPS ALOFT COOL FURTHER...SO ANY

LINGERING PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT THAT TIME.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE THURSDAY...COULD SEE UP TO 6 INCHES OF

SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AS

YOU HEAD CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUM NEAR

THE COAST...NYC METRO.

ANY PRECIP TAPERS OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW SCOOTS

WELL OFFSHORE...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVING ACROSS

SE MASS BY THAT TIME.

&&

It will change. But as they say in Lotto " Hey, ya never know" :arrowhead:

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Yea, it has backed off big time. The 06z run only has .20 of QPF for KSWF.

It looks like the NAM is pushing the higher QPF to our south and west. Did you get anything on the ground yesterday? i heard that there wasn't much on the east side of the county. I had 2" IMBY that was still around last night but is mostly gone this morning.

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It looks like the NAM is pushing the higher QPF to our south and west. Did you get anything on the ground yesterday? i heard that there wasn't much on the east side of the county. I had 2" IMBY that was still around last night but is mostly gone this morning.

It pretty much ended at the west side of the airport at Stewart. It was a nice drive along 84 yesterday seeing the white.

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It looks like the NAM is pushing the higher QPF to our south and west. Did you get anything on the ground yesterday? i heard that there wasn't much on the east side of the county. I had 2" IMBY that was still around last night but is mostly gone this morning.

I noticed it as well when I was driving on 17 towards the thruway.. Once I hit Chester there was barely a half an inch while up in Middletown 3-4" was widespread..

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I noticed it as well when I was driving on 17 towards the thruway.. Once I hit Chester there was barely a half an inch while up in Middletown 3-4" was widespread..

Ditto that. I was in New Hampton in the morning and there was a noticable difference between there and Goshen. Then last evening I still had solid snow cover, about an inch, and I drove to Washingtonville where there was nothing. That little bit of snowcover did wonders for the fog, wasn't a fun ride home even thought I know the roads like the back of my hand. :axe:

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