IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Low if -2 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I've been taking a 'weather vacation' this week, not paying much attention to things. This morning every forecast I seen called for sunny skies Sat and Sun and warmer temps in the high 30's/lower 40's This is on the NWS page (I didnt look at their forecast before) - this is kind of a strange turn of events for me Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Light southwest wind. Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Calm wind becoming west between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night: A chance of flurries before 7pm, then a slight chance of light snow after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind between 3 and 11 mph. Sunday: A chance of snow before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow between 11am and noon, then a chance of rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Light wind becoming west between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow before 11pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Well poop The gutters and downspouts melted out before I had a chance to shovel the ice away from the house and now they're dumping water into the snowpack near/against the house. I was hoping we'd get a super fast melt out so the basement would stay dry. Unfortunately it's getting damp in some of the corners already I hate spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 My wife, as well as others, thought I was nuts a couple of weeks ago after I dug various channels through the snowpack starting at the downspouts. Now she gets what I was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 13" snowpack in my yard this morning, wonder what it will be down to on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 13" snowpack in my yard this morning, wonder what it will be down to on Saturday? I hope its gone by me but thats not going to happen. Its out lived its usefullnessI - ts been murder trying to walk the dogs on it the last three weeks since it became iced over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I hope its gone by me but thats not going to happen. Its out lived its usefullnessI - ts been murder trying to walk the dogs on it the last three weeks since it became iced over. I can't argue with you, I'm not a big fan of late winter snows. Once we get into March I'd rather be raking than shoveling. I took a walk with the family on Sunday around midday before the sun broke out and I was amazed at how strong the snowpack was, I was able to stand on top of it in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I can't argue with you, I'm not a big fan of late winter snows. Once we get into March I'd rather be raking than shoveling. I took a walk with the family on Sunday around midday before the sun broke out and I was amazed at how strong the snowpack was, I was able to stand on top of it in most spots. Yes it is very strong. I guess no one seen the meteor fireball monday by us, I read a story that showed its track, came right over Orange Co in the early afternoon, they estimated it was the size of a SUV. That would have been great to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yes it is very strong. I guess no one seen the meteor fireball monday by us, I read a story that showed its track, came right over Orange Co in the early afternoon, they estimated it was the size of a SUV. That would have been great to see. Is that why I had a high of 57 on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Is that why I had a high of 57 on Monday? The snow pack is taking a hit, I am seeing it recede from tree trunks and starting to pull back from the edges along wallways.. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The snow pack is taking a hit, I am seeing it recede from tree trunks and starting to pull back from the edges along wallways.. Bring it! Agree, I have to shovel a path in the back yard (north side) of the house. The dogs have been slipping on the ice for a few weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Agree, I have to shovel a path in the back yard (north side) of the house. The dogs have been slipping on the ice for a few weeks now. yes, I shouldn't have said snowpack,If it was still snow it wouldn't be a problem - its an icepack. Its a hazard to walk on, one of my labs crashed thru the ice pack monday morning and twisted her front left leg and mess up the dew claw on that leg as well. I cannot wait for this junk to melt. Temps in the 50's and above freezing nights will help alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I've been working on my driveway all week. A couple of weeks ago it was the ice but this week it's the water and creating channels for it to run off so the driveway dries out and I stop driving through, and sometimes sinking, in mud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 What a gorgeous day today was. Hi of 60.7 after a low of 31.5. Roof snow almost gone..tomorrow should take care of the rest. I am getting spoiled now....wishing for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is that why I had a high of 57 on Monday? Craig Allen posted this fireball pic on his facebook page http://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=10150105642147720&set=a.277572317719.142174.230609267719&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Just north of me-a line of thunderstorms are coming through. My friend in New Paltz says he's got some good lightening going on. I didn't see that anywhere in the forecast-but I do work in a windowless cave-so I may have missed that update. Winds are going to be the main issue tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Craig Allen posted this fireball pic on his facebook page http://www.facebook....9267719 Cool pic. What perfect timing to be outside with a camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 00z NAM came in with 0.74 of QPF for the 1st wave Sun night Monday. Looks to be all frozen. Run for KSWF. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 00z NAM came in with 0.74 of QPF for the 1st wave Sun night Monday. Looks to be all frozen. Run for KSWF. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KSWF.txt no mas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Just north of me-a line of thunderstorms are coming through. My friend in New Paltz says he's got some good lightening going on. I didn't see that anywhere in the forecast-but I do work in a windowless cave-so I may have missed that update. Winds are going to be the main issue tonight into tomorrow. I seen reports of tstorms in south Jersey too. Feb surprise for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 no mas lol I hear ya.. lol 12z GFS is printing out .71" all frozen for MGJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Lost power here 10 mins ago.. Wind is ridiculous right now! Gotta be > 60 mph right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 My power flickered once but I've been ok, howling winds all day though. After 25 degrees above normal yesterday Old Man Winter sure is socking us in the mouth now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I hear ya.. lol 12z GFS is printing out .71" all frozen for MGJ.. 0Z Nam backed off to .53 for SWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 0Z Nam backed off to .53 for SWF 0z NAM gives MGJ .62" all frozen 0z GFS gives MGJ .54" all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 0z NAM gives MGJ .62" all frozen 0z GFS gives MGJ .54" all frozen Just ran a SmartModel output for Middletown, NY. Looking at a 7-8" Snowfall event for that area on the 21st, with the heaviest precip around 11-17Z, hinting to a 2-3 hour block of 1"+ snowfall rate per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Well I still have 100% snowcover. There's a patch on the front lawn over the septic system that always melts off early but otherwise 4-10" cover solid as a rock. This is the longest I've had snowcover in the 15 years I've lived in this house. Some refreshing this week and this stuff is pretty well assured of lasting into mid March unless there's another multi day torch with high dewpoints. I'm hoping that when it does warm up it's outrageously warm so this stuff melts off quickly while the ground is still frozen underneath and the basement stays dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Well I still have 100% snowcover. There's a patch on the front lawn over the septic system that always melts off early but otherwise 4-10" cover solid as a rock. This is the longest I've had snowcover in the 15 years I've lived in this house. Some refreshing this week and this stuff is pretty well assured of lasting into mid March unless there's another multi day torch with high dewpoints. I'm hoping that when it does warm up it's outrageously warm so this stuff melts off quickly while the ground is still frozen underneath and the basement stays dry. I have bare spots where the wind had blown the snow but I still have 8.5" at the snow stake with lots of twigs and small branches melted into the snow pack. Since it's not all going to melt so I can rake yet I guess I'm glad to get a new layer on there to cover up all of the junk, for lack of a better term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z NAM Bufkit gives SWF 7.6" of snow.. Ill believe it when I see it... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z NAM Bufkit gives SWF 7.6" of snow.. Ill believe it when I see it... lol Nam always comes in a bit wet, we'll see. Gives us 0.4" on the second wave. http://www.meteor.ia...l=nam&site=kswf Looks like OKX is hanging with the NAM. (a section of their short term forcast) AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1028 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 THE NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH ECMWF/GEM/SREF TRACKING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF LI LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LESS THAN IDEAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SOME OF THESE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HAS BEEN WOBBLING WITH ITS TRACK THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH A SOLUTION OVER THE AREA WITH THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A NUDGE FURTHER SOUTH THAN OPERATIONAL. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/ECMWF/SREF SOLUTIONS...WITH A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A MAINLY A SNOW EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...WAA LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THEN MODELS DEPICTING A 70 KT WSW LLJ AND TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE...DEVELOPING A MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC SNOWS ACROSS WESTERN PA THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION IS HOW WELL THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AS ENERGY TRANSITIONS OVER THE APPALACHIANS WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE THE QPF QUESTIONS LIE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 OF AN INCH QPF...HIGHEST AGAIN ACROSS FAR NW SECTIONS. BEST SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR NE NJ...AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AS WELL WITH COLDER TEMPS AND ELEVATION. BASED ON CURRENT QPF FORECAST...A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IF HEAVIER QPF DEPICTED IN GFS/NAM MATERIALIZES...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR A WATCH. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA...LESS CERTAINTY EXIST IN TERMS OF SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS(SOUTH) AND QPF(EAST). A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS BEING ACROSS NYC/LI WITH LOWER SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE WILL RE-EVALUATE NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH AFTERNOON FCST UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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