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PHL CWA Jan 26/27 Obs and Discussion thread..part II


NJHurricane

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Interesting for sure. Let's check again in an hour to validate.

I will say this: I might just give up weather altogether if MBY goes from fringed to dry slotted. No chance it happens, but just thinking about it makes my stomach hurt.

lmao, honestly that idea went through my head too looking at the simulated radars over the past few days. Apparently this is supposed to cut off precip along southern PA and suck it all into the low bombing off the coast, giving us the shaft again. This system just seems to be a bag of tricks though.

I thought this first batch was done for but the light snow has been falling steady again here after a short break.

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This ULL is sick! It looks like it has a feeder band. I wonder if there are gusty winds in those squalls that will swing through the OBX.

That is seriously one of the most potent ULL's I have seen in a long time. Usually, a ULL swinging through after the main storm affects our area will bring only a little bit of snow (coating to at most 2"). Most areas that get snow from this ULL will pick up more than 2"...and some could get double-digit accumulations.

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light sleet/rain coming down in new brunswick

Same in the BM, maybe a few flakes. Couple thoughts. My experience is that the Euro is pretty awful on QPF close to events, others may disagree, but overall I'd skip any model that isn't at least meso this close. That mega band in Virginia has lots of lightning according to the Richmond area folks, though the dbz's are catching the sleet. This is all going too well. We're gonna get dryslotted. Or something.

Looking down the road 12z GFS has four snow threats in the next week (although the biggest is only 2.2,). And (drumroll please) 12z GFS has the first sub-zero forecast for KPHL of the year (-0.2 @ 168).

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