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PHL CWA Jan 26/27 Obs and Discussion thread..part II


NJHurricane

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How exactly does Convection affect model interpretation?

On a related note, I just did an analysis of the past 12 RUC runs all valid for 10am today. As I suspected almost every update brought temps at 700 and 850 down a touch. Winds out of the south/ southwest were lighter each run too. Just a subtle shift run after run right before the moment of impact that ended up resulting in a big change with sensible weather. Very hard to catch and very frustrating.

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Still snowing lightly outside of my workplace in Lansdale, PA as of 11:45 AM. In the past hour, had some moderate snow and even a brief heavier burst of snow. Looks like we're at about 5" of snow for the event, and we may tack on another half inch (per radar) before this event ends in the next hour or so.

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Haha nope still exact opposites. No other model shows THAT big of a cutoff that the ARW is advertising. I dont buy it.

ALSO, the ARW had 0 precip for us until the second batch, uhhh most of us got 2-5 inches lol....Model was way off, hard to buy it.

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Still snowing lightly outside of my workplace in Lansdale, PA as of 11:45 AM. In the past hour, had some moderate snow and even a brief heavier burst of snow. Looks like we're at about 5" of snow for the event, and we may tack on another half inch (per radar) before this event ends in the next hour or so.

Hey working neighbor.. I'm in Lansdale area also John but no window at my desk :( ... I keep walking over to windows :snowman:

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thats a lot closer to the coast, than most modeling has indicated, my question is the models screwed the pooch on the NW extent of qpf, is there a repeat in store for the ULL

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It looks like it is digging a lot more, and when the two phase, I can just imagine the KABOOM and the intensification, should be a sight for sore eyes as the day progresses.

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Not seeing the SLP misplacement some are citing. See best frontogenesis ENE of the NC/VA border, and SLP lobing that way. 9hr forecast from both NAM and GFS put the low placement 75-100 miles east of MD/DEL border, so think things are evolving correctly, maybe 25 miles or so further west but I don't see how that is of much consequence.

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Not seeing the SLP misplacement some are citing. See best frontogenesis ENE of the NC/VA border, and SLP lobing that way. 9hr forecast from both NAM and GFS put the low placement 75-100 miles east of MD/DEL border, so think things are evolving correctly, maybe 25 miles or so further west but I don't see how that is of much consequence.

Considering that many of us in this thread are riding an awfully steep gradient, you might say every mile counts. ;)

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looks like 5 inches here in drexel hill. Melting down the core to see the qpf

Hey Tombo I am hearing that the storm will track closer than thought this is being said by some people in this thread does that mean more rain for the Philly area and immidiate SJ areas?

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Considering that many of us in this thread are riding an awfully steep gradient, you might say every mile counts. ;)

I feel that storm track is slightly irrelevant here. Bigger issue IMO is temperatures aloft, which are getting mussed up by the amount of time the low/trough at H7 is spending to our west. Once temps get below freezing there and the heavy precip moves in, I see surface flow as essentially irrelevant.

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