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PHL CWA Jan 26/27 Obs and Discussion thread..part II


NJHurricane

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I spent the last 45 minutes outside to experience the latest band coming through Delaware Co. Here's a photo, taken at 10:25.

It went from medium-sized flakes to big, ~1" flakes, then to small flakes with sleet mixing in (still mostly snow, though).

Though the radar indicates that precip has completely cleared my area, there's still light snow coming down.

swarthmore012611_1025am.jpg

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New GFS says another 6" for TTN... new NAM says another 12"... of course the NAM did horrible in its own first 6 hours while the GFS was at least a bit better... in any case, 8-16" is a perfectly reasonable forecast for the storm total now :axe:

Yeah GFS not as bullish. NAM would put down a foot of snow in 3-4 hours.

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6" on the dot in VIllanova. Unbelievable.

I said that this storm had far more GOM moisture then anything we had this year, and I also made a post that the 0Z GFS had the low closer to the coast at 18hrs. and now this from NY thread.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WHOLESALE UPDATE TO NEAR TERMS GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH QUICKER

DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIP. LIKELY CAUSE FOR POOR MODEL HANDLING

WAS DUE TO PROLIFIC CONVECTION OVER THE GULF...INTERRUPTING MODEL

HANDLING OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED.

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I said that this storm had far more GOM moisture then anything we had this year, and I also made a post that the 0Z GFS had the low closer to the coast at 18hrs. and now this from NY thread.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WHOLESALE UPDATE TO NEAR TERMS GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH QUICKER

DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIP. LIKELY CAUSE FOR POOR MODEL HANDLING

WAS DUE TO PROLIFIC CONVECTION OVER THE GULF...INTERRUPTING MODEL

HANDLING OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED.

Yea it's amazing. If models can't get this opening band down, who knows how badly tonight can busy in the right or wrong direction! (Hopefully the right one :scooter:)

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I said that this storm had far more GOM moisture then anything we had this year, and I also made a post that the 0Z GFS had the low closer to the coast at 18hrs. and now this from NY thread.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WHOLESALE UPDATE TO NEAR TERMS GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH QUICKER

DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIP. LIKELY CAUSE FOR POOR MODEL HANDLING

WAS DUE TO PROLIFIC CONVECTION OVER THE GULF...INTERRUPTING MODEL

HANDLING OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED.

Don't forget about the balloon. wink.gif

First plow truck of the day just came down the street. Heavy snow still coming down. I keep waiting for the lull to hit so I can go out and shovel before round #2 gets under way.

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