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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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That sharp qpf cutoff could very well be real. I'm willing to bet that the deformation band sets up right where that gradient is, and snowfall drops off pretty quickly beyond that.

Agreed. Cautiously optimistic HFD/BOS get an impressive thump but I'm worried it may be more HVN-PYM

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Im trying to enlighten you that you are waiting for a trend to a plowable snowfall that is just not going to happen for us this time around. Your posts have been very imby. Start rooting for some SNE places to get buried now.

It wasn't that I wasn't rooting for them, just reviewing over the trends for NH and ME, that have apparently gone downhill. The heaviest snow line looks just NW of Boston down to Plymouth and over to Hartford, CT to me.

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Im trying to enlighten you that you are waiting for a trend to a plowable snowfall that is just not going to happen for us this time around. Your posts have been very imby. Start rooting for some SNE places to get buried now.

imby means in my backyard

yeah we are fooked on this one, but hey its a good winter and sne still has a shot at some heavy snow! That's a good thing. We'll get ours.....

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Agreed. Cautiously optimistic HFD/BOS get an impressive thump but I'm worried it may be more HVN-PYM

i HAVE HAD A REAL BAD FEELING ABOUT THIS STORM FOR TWO DAYS NOW FOR THE HFD/SPFD AREA

AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BIG DIFFERNCE BETWEEN THE TWO CITIES IF PROGS ARE TO BE BELIEVED.

I THINK YOU MIGHT BE RIGHT WITH THE NEW HAVEN/PLYMOUTH HEAVY SNOW

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Burbank calling for a bust

What impresses me to this moment still and the reason I stuck up for Barry was how he flat out said essentially "I see the euro, I like the euro, here's why it's wrong"...now like all "verifications" there's a bunch of parts to it. I'm not sure he said much about the two part theme versus it just be surpressed south but in the end it doesnt matter for a huge portion of his viewing area to the west.

WSW now up down here. nice to see.

That's usually when things start to go south for us :)

Agreed. Cautiously optimistic HFD/BOS get an impressive thump but I'm worried it may be more HVN-PYM

Burbank is worried too. I'm probably going to ride a combo of the ARW/NMM/MM5 when they become available. At this range I think they'll do the best and my guess is they are even more SE but have an intense band somewhere near bob-me-phil

I think I'm gonna get Dec 2003ed.

What was that?

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Where to actually locate that 6-12" band was the toughest part. Everything else, easy. I choose to place it a bit NW of guidance just because of some of the most respected members here are having a tough time believing the storm will take a hard right turn east like modeled on some of todays runs. Also, it seems like some of the models are picking up on areas getting a bit more then modeled previously to today because of the current advance of precip already into CT at this time. This shows me the RUC might have some idea what is going on. Also, the GFS came in RUC like at 12z making me believe that is the perfect stripe of 6-12" at the current time.

122kktd.jpg

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Probably both of us...but we might end up doing well too. I'm hoping the band ends up a tick NW of where qpf is modeled like it has all year.

Crazy uncle is pretty amped up at 12z, so we'll see.

I'd rather sit here, than fiighting off rain.....looks like I really will have to try for the ski MRG band. lol

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1112 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE

TRI-STATE AREA...

CTZ005>012-270515-

/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110127T1100Z/

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-

NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-

SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-

1112 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST

THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...9 TO 13 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH

ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.

* TIMING...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN DURING MID

TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATE TODAY INTO

TONIGHT.

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I'd rather sit here, than fiighting off rain.....looks like I really will have to try for the ski MRG band. lol

Part of me feels you'll be ok, but you could be close to the line. It's not out of the question to envision that band forming and moving over you for a few hours before going se.

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Moderate to heavy snow. Excellent dendrites. About .75 new. Visibility 1/4 to 1/2 mile.

Really gorgeous this morning before the snow started. The overnight ice fog had lightly rimed all the branches and conifer needles, giving the impression of a living lithograph against the monochrome sky. Made me remember why I love winter so much.

Really have no idea what will happen from here on out. Hearing lots of confusion from coworkers, etc, and don't blame them. Having a 16 inch snowpack to fall back on makes the nowcasting fun and stress free.

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Where to actually locate that 6-12" band was the toughest part. Everything else, easy. I choose to place it a bit NW of guidance just because of some of the most respected members here are having a tough time believing the storm will take a hard right turn east like modeled on some of todays runs. Also, it seems like some of the models are picking up on areas getting a bit more then modeled previously to today because of the current advance of precip already into CT at this time. This shows me the RUC might have some idea what is going on. Also, the GFS came in RUC like at 12z making me believe that is the perfect stripe of 6-12" at the current time.

122kktd.jpg

Too generous for us up nath and not generous enough towards the Cape in my not in the least bit informed by science or meteorology opinion. That would be IMNILBIBSMO

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