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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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12z nam pounds a ton of omega right in the heart of the SGZ down this way overnight tonight. verbatim the model is probably a 9 to 14" job for parts of SE MA/Cape

I think it looks pretty good on the NAM, the GFS scares me a little despite QPF output.

I have a hard time buying this stuff moving much north of Hartford. Seems like a S CT, S RI, SE Mass special to me.

I'd agree a breakoff band could still occur though.

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What concerns me with the GFS is the best lift at 700 stays offshore. I don't worry about it so much as it's a global and IMO the globals in general have been behind the times with this system, but it's a red flag.

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I'm still trying to figure out after starting more amplified with a surface low slightly more tucked in it gets shoved east at 18 hours. The northern stream shortwave doesn't appear stronger. At hour 18...the surface low is actually slightly further east than the 06z and 00z runs.

The movement of the mid-level features between 12h and 18h on the GFS looks a little extreme to me, but who knows, this has been a quirky system. I would think it wouldn't literally move almost straight E.

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The movement of the mid-level features between 12h and 18h on the GFS looks a little extreme to me, but who knows, this has been a quirky system. I would think it wouldn't literally move almost straight E.

I think the GFS is probably a bit too extreme with the NW cutoff based on where the CCB will set up but I don't know.

I'm a little concerned we could really get the shaft in HFD/ORH while areas near HVN cash in big.

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i'm genuinely curious to know the new start time...i'm thinking i may need to call my father at work and tell him he needs to leave earlier than normal...he works in cambridge and his commute would be cambridge to the mass pike, to 128, to 109, and on normal days the commute is an absolute nightmare...

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I think the GFS is probably a bit too extreme with the NW cutoff based on where the CCB will set up but I don't know.

I'm a little concerned we could really get the shaft in HFD/ORH while areas near HVN cash in big.

The hope I'm hanging onto is that this system performs similar to the last few storms; namely that the ccb sets up further west than modeled. Atleast twice this season models have shown ORH in the jackpot, yet in reality western CT and the Berkshires cashed in more than us (not that I'm complaining because we've done VERY well here). We shall see...

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I have 1.5 inches down here in Branford and same amounts with friends and family calling in with some as high as 2 inches already on the ground ,left to get the kids at school at 10 just a dusting then,m by the time i got back over an inch with poor visibility.

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intense virga in Boston. This tight QPF gradient creates huge bust up or down potential with this system.

I'm not that worried about the GFS, but even the RGEM has an ultra extreme cutoff and it shifted east this run. I think increasingly this is going to be an epic banding situation with a lot of frustration/subsidence on the NW side. I think it's time for the higher res models.

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The w/v shows the begin of the next band getting ready to go...note the drying spot in NC. That's an epic dryslot off the east coast, amazing that the globals had such a miserable time. Then again the NAM couldnt figure out how far north the precip would get so...

The RUC is backing steadily away from the earlier robust solutions each run (further north you go)

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Burbank calling for a bust

t’s a topsy-turvy morning because it is warmer at the observatory at the summit of Mt.Washington than it is in most of the region closer to sea level. At 8am, it was 16 degrees with a visibility of 120 miles on the top of the rock pile while most of the suburbs had frosted cars with temperatures in the single numbers with poor visibility in spots due to fog. This temperature inversion was created under premium radiational cooling conditions during the night when it was clear and calm with enhancement by a deep snow cover. Just prior to daybreak, areas of low clouds formed plus a shield of high cloudiness streamed in from the approaching storm. The region of low pressure to the south of us is split into two pieces. A glance at the composite satellite/radar loop reveals a very interesting portrait of the system. The initial impulse is blossoming northeastward and heavy snow is breaking out over New Jersey into NYC to southwestern CT. This shield of precipitation should expand across southern Connecticut and southern Rhode Island by late morning or so with some of that area perhaps receiving 1 to 3 inches through early to mid-afternoon. There is a slight risk it will blossom up to near the Mass Pike during the afternoon with less than an inch. On Cape Cod and the immediate South Coast, some mixing or a change to rain is probable. This first wave will shift offshore this evening leading us to discuss part two. This feature is an upper level low pressure system over Tennessee this morning and it is the master key to the forecast. Currently, it is tracking almost due east. If it continued on this trajectory, little or none of its precipitation would make it into New England. I expect a gradual turning of the system to slightly north of due east later today then more east-northeast tonight then more northeasterly tomorrow morning. The precise timing of this turning will be paramount to accurately predicting the amount of snow that will penetrate into New England. At this time, It appears that sufficient dynamics will pinwheel into the region to provide a spell of moderate to heavy snow for the Boston area southward from near 11pm to about 4-5am. As a result, I am sticking with my expected snowfall totals from the past couple days. The final snowfall amounts will range from nothing more than a dusting up to 3 inches across southern York County in Maine, extreme southern NH into extreme northern MA into western MA up into extreme southeastern VT. The 3 up to 6 inch ribbon should run across central and southern Essex County, central and southern Middlesex County into Suffolk County and northern Norfolk County. The immediate Boston area is in line for 5 possibly 6 inches. The 6″+ belt extends south of Boston to just east of the Cape Cod Canal across most of Rhode Island. Within that belt, there will be areas of 8 to 9 inches possible in Plymouth County and Bristol County into southern Rhode Island. I am also revising the numbers higher into at least the 3 to 6 onch range for much of the Cape. It is entirely possible that the 6+ belt may be shifted onto at least the inner Cape. Lower amounts are likely on the outer Cape and Nantucket due to some rainfall and mixing for part of the storm. The disorganized zone of low pressure will replaced by the final deepening storm off Delmarva this evening which will track east-northeastward well south of New England.

Every storm contains a surprise so the surprise that I think that we need to be prepared for is the possibility that the amounts will be lowered further north and west of Boston and raised even more on Cape Cod. That is where potential failure may exist. In any event, the storm is a done deal by dawn and some sunshine returns tomorrow. There is a risk of some splashover at the usual shore roads about an hour or so either side of the 5Am high tide tomorrow as the northeasterly wind increases to 15-35 mph late tonight and backs to northerly closer to dawn. There could be a foot or more storm surge to add onto the scheduled 10.4 foot tide.

Looking ahead, a couple disturbances will pass through in the next few days. The first perturbation would only crank out some clouds with a slight risk of a flurry on Friday followed by the second one producing a little bit of light snow or flurries later Saturday afternoon or night. Temperatures max out around 30-33 through Saturday with colder 20s Sunday and Monday. Morning flurries along the coast will exit leaving sunshine for Sunday and Monday. The next storm is timed to arrive later Tuesday as snow but the arrival of milder air would cause a switch to rainfall Tuesday night. That scenario is speculative at this time.

If new data warrants any revision of the above discussion, I will post some midday musings early this afternoon otherwise Todd Gutner has the next chapter later in the day.

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