CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Look at that death band down by Philly late today. Dynamics and everything else comes together there perfectly. Hopefully we can get that to sustain itself and move ne. NAM tries too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah I was noticing that on the echoes. It moving ene now, but hopefully the increased isentropic lift and backing flow will help. It may be a race. It's a race. Here's the RUC clown radar image for 50 minutes ago. This is kind of why it has to be taken with a grain of salt IMO. It might be nailing the heavier stuff on the coast, but we'll see how it does in a bit. The nam is the red headded step child of models this year, no offence to the red hair folks out there haha The NAM was the first model to split the system into two parts. In that regard it was fine, it just placed the first part 300-400 miles too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The nam is the red headded step child of models this year, no offence to the red hair folks out there haha it's definitely struggling right now. but none of the tools out there are perfect. they all have different things they are good at doing and different things they struggle with. they are way better than we give them credit for - it's just that we spend so much time looking at them we pick apart every detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think that jury had a mistrial. Looping the radar, is an ugly thing for NW. At least with this first batch. Anything that's going to make it above the CT border will likely come from round 2. Do you have sun breaking through up at your house Mike? 'Tis here. Still hoping we pull of a few inches but one thing models have been consistent on is the sharp cut off. I could see S. Orh co. getting 5-10" while up near Dave in Hubbarston there is only 4". We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow has picked up in intensity to a moderate leve for the last 15 minutes...pouring snow at times with great fluff factor and we are at 20.8 degrees.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 it's definitely struggling right now. but none of the tools out there are perfect. they all have different things they are good at doing and different things they struggle with. they are way better than we give them credit for - it's just that we spend so much time looking at them we pick apart every detail. No its not prefect, it signaled the change just got the details out of wack, hence my analogy, you still love it just need to smack it around from time to time to keep it in check, last year it did a decent job i dunno if its due to the pattern we are in, la nina? as matt said in his tech discussion last night i feel bad for the public, at least we are exposed to a variety of modeling on here and else were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BDR SNOW/FREEZING FOG 26/22 VIS .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is beginning to appear as though the NAM’s convective feedback issues are destroying its credibility for this particular system. Again, as I explained yesterday (and it is my hypothesis so take it as you need), the parameterization for convection in the NAM model is detecting instability spread out over a large® area. Comparing that circumstance to the big event that brought the 15-20” storm to the region a couple of weeks ago: That system had most of convective instability situated along a narrow axis that happened to collocate with the axis of best cyclogenesis potential. That is why the NAM handled that one embarrassingly well compared to the other models. Its convective schemes thus did not interfere with the cyclogenesis, and in fact, fed back into it because of that happenstance. In the present scenario, the instability is diffused; but the model is going to erupt convection and subsequently conserve latent heat fluxes, height falls, and vorticity genesis accordingly either way. This latter bi-product of convective physics interferes with the mechanics of proper cyclogenesis. It really all hearkens to the usage-fact: You have to know when to use which model. Some situations the NAM will perform better than the others; this is likewise true for the GGEM, *ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and even NOGAPS. Depending on what specific strengths and weaknesses exist as biases in each deterministic model types; then leveraging that understanding against the environmental conditions the given model is processing for, will provide a course of least regret in the art of forecasting. Bottom line, this storm was not the right storm for the NAM. In the best objective sense of it, the ECMWF is the best tool for this event because now-cast is proving that to be the case, for whatever native reasons why that model is best for this system. I put an asterisk around that list above because for most situations inside of 96 …certainly 72 hours, the ECMWF is tougher to beat than any of the other deterministic models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 We might be too far N, though out in BOS has a better chance than here with this front batch. The RUC actually developed the stuff further S into E MA later on this afternoon. It will be interesting to see how that develops. the chh 12z sounding had a lot of dry air in the mid-levels...it might end up being a lot of radar watching for a good chunk of SNE today without much going on. maybe RI/SE MA etc. get clipped with some of that stuff? still looks like the main show for SNE comes tonight when the real forcing arrives. that is a pretty darn potent upper air feature over the apps right now. while ideally you might want it to make a closer approach, still looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 No its not prefect, it signaled the change just got the details out of wack, hence my analogy, you still love it just need to smack it around from time to time to keep it in check, last year it did a decent job i dunno if its due to the pattern we are in, la nina? as matt said in his tech discussion last night i feel bad for the public, at least we are exposed to a variety of modeling on here and else were. I think it's all the little vortmax spinning around...some are fairly intense but really tiny. Triggers a lot of convective complexes which cause a lot of problems for the models. The RUC is gradually backing off from the guns blazing solution particularly the further NW you go. Still going to be an issue near the heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The RUC is too promising for me to believe it. I'm tossing it out. Money's on the dresser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RUC has heavy snow into SW CT by 16z. LOL I'm going to have that soon enough... WTH I don't pay much attention last night since I figure I have till about then today, what is this?! SN and rapidly accumulating, too! 12z NAM had no precip for NNJ and NYC thru 18z accumulating snow already in SW CT...and radar looking good to bring that snow into at least the southern 1/3 of CT. NAM hasn't had a clue on this. Anything received through this afternoon is just gravy on top of what the NAM has for total QPF. Then the question is whether its too far S & E with the CCB that moves up later on. I'm thinking 2-4" for extreme NW CT, 4-8" for much of the state...8-14" east of the valley. I am glad you added the caveat, we are rocking and whoa! SW CT WINTER, CAN I HEAR IT AGAIN?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The northern edge just keeps getting cut off and its partly sunny up here and 9 degrees. I mentioned yesterday that this reminds me of Jan '96 in that areas south of me were getting 12+", while I was experiencing heavy heavy virga. I think that may be the case again tonight. my 4" call for CON looks like it could bust way high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sn- in Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Do you have sun breaking through up at your house Mike? 'Tis here. Still hoping we pull of a few inches but one thing models have been consistent on is the sharp cut off. I could see S. Orh co. getting 5-10" while up near Dave in Hubbarston there is only 4". We shall see... Yup......have had a few peeks of the sun, Chris. I'm pretty certain the BOX forecast map is pretty good out here. The sharp gradient is something that's really been consistent of late. Alas, we're on the wrong side of it. I'll continue to peek at the ALY discussion to see if they think things could get better. But, their call for 2" in northern Berkshire is pretty consistent with the 3 or so BOX has painted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOL I'm going to have that soon enough... WTH I don't pay much attention last night since I figure I have till about then today, what is this?! SN and rapidly accumulating, too! I am glad you added the caveat, we are rocking and whoa! SW CT WINTER, CAN I HEAR IT AGAIN?! How's your mixed bag, kitchen sink. ip/zr, slop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RUC still wants to bring stuff into most of SNE by 21z. Not convinced of that yet, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 How's your mixed bag, kitchen sink. ip/zr, slop? Roads and all pavement, which were black as we got about freezing yesterday/for how long and sunny, are already totally covered. You know this...but for everyone else. Working towards the first inch. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yup......have had a few peeks of the sun, Chris. I'm pretty certain the BOX forecast map is pretty good out here. The sharp gradient is something that's really been consistent of late. Alas, we're on the wrong side of it. I'll continue to peek at the ALY discussion to see if they think things could get better. But, their call for 2" in northern Berkshire is pretty consistent with the 3 or so BOX has painted here. Thinking now 2" hard to get for you...will continue to fly with it for now but I am taking ALB down to D-1" with Noon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM FTW??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RUC still wants to bring stuff into most of SNE by 21z. Not convinced of that yet, but we'll see. William, I said we're tossing the RUC. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yup......have had a few peeks of the sun, Chris. I'm pretty certain the BOX forecast map is pretty good out here. The sharp gradient is something that's really been consistent of late. Alas, we're on the wrong side of it. I'll continue to peek at the ALY discussion to see if they think things could get better. But, their call for 2" in northern Berkshire is pretty consistent with the 3 or so BOX has painted here. Yup, I'm good with whatever we get. Although I would be disappointed if it was much under 3-4" which is not impossible. Now Pete and Kev can see why your model worries and qpf fetish are valid! - lol. We'll make up for it with the next swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am shocked to see this from OKX. I think they may get burned on that, but they've been outstanding all year, so who knows WILL BE CONVERTING WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's a race. Here's the RUC clown radar image for 50 minutes ago. This is kind of why it has to be taken with a grain of salt IMO. It might be nailing the heavier stuff on the coast, but we'll see how it does in a bit. The NAM was the first model to split the system into two parts. In that regard it was fine, it just placed the first part 300-400 miles too far east Remember that is composite radar which matches reality pretty well - just too dry aloft for the green stuff to make it down in boston and surrounding eastern areas. I'd think the depiction out to 3 hours and beyond would bring the precip into boston, and hopefully heavy enough to cool off any BL issues down south around you. We'll see, hoping for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 William, I said we're tossing the RUC. Thank you. Normally I would too, but it actually was the only model to get it right this morning to our SW. This afternoon's potential not withstanding, I think you'll be fine in BOS for this storm. I'm a lot more worried where I am...could see 3-5" while 15 miles SE of me sees 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 S+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StallionRx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snowing pretty hard in Fairfield... Street is completely snow covered and a temp of 23 I95 seems to have slowed waaaay down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Measured - have 1/2-3/4" down. SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snowing in Old Lyme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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