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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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Here's what the 12z RUC is doing. It does not look unreasonable at least where I focused along the extreme coastal areas over towards me. (Ie I'm not speaking of Will's area, or you guys up further north..thats someone elses place to tackle.)

That actually looks pretty good... so look for just over .5" QPF through 7pm in NYC area and along coastal sections of SNE.

RUC means a nice 4-7" snowfall in coastal areas today as well as NYC area (provided its cold enough through the column for snow), with 2-5" north of the coastal sections. That's not unreasonable by any means.

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accumulating snow already in SW CT...and radar looking good to bring that snow into at least the southern 1/3 of CT. NAM hasn't had a clue on this. Anything received through this afternoon is just gravy on top of what the NAM has for total QPF. Then the question is whether its too far S & E with the CCB that moves up later on.

I'm thinking 2-4" for extreme NW CT, 4-8" for much of the state...8-14" east of the valley.

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wow what a nowcasting event!!! how exciting!

I think southern CT is going to get rocked today... they may get 7-12+ out of this.

I'm thinking like 5-10 for HFD/TOL?

First guesses here tho haven't looked at much

i think thats a perfect forecast.. exactly what i forecasted.. 7-15" with most spots in between 7-12" .. i work in a gym and teach classes so i announced this to like 50 ppl.. and they were like no the news said 4-6" lol i said we'll see who's right.. i was really nervous until seeing the ruc be so consistent and radar confirming the rucs snowing hard on this area this morning

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That actually looks pretty good... so look for just over .5" QPF through 7pm in NYC area and along coastal sections of SNE.

RUC means a nice 4-7" snowfall in coastal areas today as well as NYC area (provided its cold enough through the column for snow), with 2-5" north of the coastal sections. That's not unreasonable by any means.

haven't seen the RUC. Is that all before the CCB comes through tonight?

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Looking at Radar and models, I'd definitely want to be SE of I-84 through CT. Inside of I-90 out to exit 9 (Sturbridge) and down I-84 looks golden... NW of that the jury is still out.

I think that jury had a mistrial.

Looping the radar, is an ugly thing for NW. At least with this first batch. Anything that's going to make it above the CT border will likely come from round 2.

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accumulating snow already in SW CT...and radar looking good to bring that snow into at least the southern 1/3 of CT. NAM hasn't had a clue on this. Anything received through this afternoon is just gravy on top of what the NAM has for total QPF. Then the question is whether its too far S & E with the CCB that moves up later on.

I'm thinking 2-4" for extreme NW CT, 4-8" for much of the state...8-14" east of the valley.

I should add as a caveat...coastal sections could easily be in the 8-14" total if this first batch puts down more than 1 or 2 inches.

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Props to cweat on the 2 parter kind of idea. That's where we're heading now. Also looking at the euro from last night... way for them to totally back off. Ugh.

The key will be keeping this moisture around...that's where the dry models fell flat. They were shunting it too far ESE so we had to rely 100% on the developing comma head. Instead at the very least we'll have plenty of moisture left around to act on so the deal is sealed for tonight already, lock it up as Kevin says. In the end it was a true compromise, we did not get the wrapped up consolidated storm, but we also didn't get the first pulse out by 150 miles like the earlier NAM etc.

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To me, the NW edge looks to be making no further progress here http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

At the same time almost the center of the leftover spin is moving NE off Jersey. If you look at the west milford crosshairs west of NY, precip is struggling to get much further than that.

Also, http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes

Looks like it's not making much more progress north of Peekskill/Pou pointing towards Willimantic and maybe boston as the edge. Note the heavier echoes south of LI are not making any progress onto land or I should say are just barely...one has run right along the LI shore for some time.

The big deal will be...does this suddenly lift north in response to digging features in the next 3-4 hours? As it is right now, it wouldn't make it all that much further north barring that sudden wrapping.

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The echoes should gain more latitude the further we get into the afternoon as the flow backs more in the upper levels. Right now the steering current is more ENE but will begin to turn more NE and NNE later in the afternoon....you can see that is the direction of the movement down in S NJ and MD...more NE/NNE and then it starts to turn more ENE near NYC and into CT.

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The key will be keeping this moisture around...that's where the dry models fell flat. They were shunting it too far ESE so we had to rely 100% on the developing comma head. Instead at the very least we'll have plenty of moisture left around to act on so the deal is sealed for tonight already, lock it up as Kevin says. In the end it was a true compromise, we did not get the wrapped up consolidated storm, but we also didn't get the first pulse out by 150 miles like the earlier NAM etc.

--

To me, the NW edge looks to be making no further progress here http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

At the same time almost the center of the leftover spin is moving NE off Jersey. If you look at the west milford crosshairs west of NY, precip is struggling to get much further than that.

Also, http://radar.weather...id=okx&loop=yes

Looks like it's not making much more progress north of Peekskill/Pou pointing towards Willimantic and maybe boston as the edge. Note the heavier echoes south of LI are not making any progress onto land or I should say are just barely...one has run right along the LI shore for some time.

The big deal will be...does this suddenly lift north in response to digging features in the next 3-4 hours? As it is right now, it wouldn't make it all that much further north barring that sudden wrapping.

I'm only expecting 1-2" here from the first batch... but I expect big surprises in S CT from it. Like 3-6" on top of the CCB tonight!!

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The echoes should gain more latitude the further we get into the afternoon as the flow backs more in the upper levels. Right now the steering current is more ENE but will begin to turn more NE and NNE later in the afternoon....you can see that is the direction of the movement down in S NJ and MD...more NE/NNE and then it starts to turn more ENE near NYC and into CT.

Good call. I was wondering if this was just wishful thinking on my part as I looked at regional radar loops, but your support of that idea makes me feel less crazy haha.

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I should add as a caveat...coastal sections could easily be in the 8-14" total if this first batch puts down more than 1 or 2 inches.

and it will in the southern half of the state at least.. this snow is wasting no time only been snowing for 15-20 minutes and the ground is covered probably a quarter inch flakes are perfect size.. wow

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The echoes should gain more latitude the further we get into the afternoon as the flow backs more in the upper levels. Right now the steering current is more ENE but will begin to turn more NE and NNE later in the afternoon....you can see that is the direction of the movement down in S NJ and MD...more NE/NNE and then it starts to turn more ENE near NYC and into CT.

Yeah I was noticing that on the echoes. It moving ene now, but hopefully the increased isentropic lift and backing flow will help. It may be a race.

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Flakes have been pretty small, but thanks to the cold they are sticking quite well. Minor accumulation so far in Greenwich after about an hour of light snow. If only we could get those nice big puffy flakes we had a few days ago that have been so elusive this winter. About to get into some 30-35 dBZ echoes. Radar looking a bit ragged over NJ after this batch goes through NYC metro and into SW CT/Long Island Sound.

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Yeah I was noticing that on the echoes. It moving ene now, but hopefully the increased isentropic lift and backing flow will help. It may be a race.

We might be too far N, though out in BOS has a better chance than here with this front batch.

The RUC actually developed the stuff further S into E MA later on this afternoon. It will be interesting to see how that develops.

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