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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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freezing drizzle/snowgrains/ip mix here.

everything coated in a thin film of ice with 4 inches of fresh fluff underneath.

OKX nailed this, had this going to a light mix this morning around 4pm and that is exactly what happened.

Tonight is going to be wild, winds really picking up here out of the NE now.

31

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painfull

It's slowly turning the corner. This is going to be pretty epic tonight but think about what this would have been if the Euro was right, and we didn't have the mid level drying?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110126&endTime=-1&duration=6

If this bowling-balls its way across SNE, I imagine it could look very... special.

It's going to just a matter of where.

What time will the snow commence again from round 2?

We should see banding begin to develop right over SNE in the next 1-2 hours...as the entire complex to the SW spins up.

Dropping again now

It's only 32/33 here so there's not a ton of worry back there. I'm on the fence here though.

Well like I was saying this morning, the banding was good based on the mid level lows for ern mass. QPF said one thing, but we've seen it time and time again where people like mpm get all upset at the GFS giving them 0.3" qpf and then he gets 10". Lets not count the chickens before they hatch, but so far..I feel pretty good for eastern mas, even ctrl areas.

Very honest statement. I agree, we will have to see how it plays out in the next 3-5 hours.

Wow, I just saw the 18z GFS...amazing. The RUC might have scored a coup, but we'll know for sure in a few hours.

You should text that to CT Blizz/Vim Toot or whatever...

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nose of warmer 850's up into SE coastal CT Ext. S. RI ext. south Bristol/ plymouth and S shore Cape cod 0C + on spc meso map

certainly possible. that's also just the RUC analysis though so it's going to smooth it out and also it tends to run too warm. my point though was unless guidance is completely off, the main thump of precip later tonight will not be an issue for him...nor for most everyone in the thread really.

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certainly possible. that's also just the RUC analysis though so it's going to smooth it out and also it tends to run too warm. my point though was unless guidance is completely off, the main thump of precip later tonight will not be an issue for him...nor for most everyone in the thread really.

The RUC has backed down considerably on temps. 4 hours ago it would have had the 2c line pushing up over/near us...it's now init'ing below 0c.

There's absolutely no doubt it my mind the M/L rolled east more than ENE or NE for a few hours. I think we're seeing some of that play out on the RUC as it's tugging the precip shield steadily southeast with the m/l. I do wonder a little about the 18z runs now beyond the RGEM.

For those not familiar...this is the 18z runs forecast for 22z, versus the init of the 22z.

Note PA/NY/WV

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It's slowly turning the corner. This is going to be pretty epic tonight but think about what this would have been if the Euro was right, and we didn't have the mid level drying?

http://www.rap.ucar....e=-1&duration=6

It's going to just a matter of where.

We should see banding begin to develop right over SNE in the next 1-2 hours...as the entire complex to the SW spins up.

It's only 32/33 here so there's not a ton of worry back there. I'm on the fence here though.

Very honest statement. I agree, we will have to see how it plays out in the next 3-5 hours.

You should text that to CT Blizz/Vim Toot or whatever...

Can't wait to meet you Saturday at the GTG if the snowstorm isn't too bad. Glad the ski trip was cancelled!! Should be fun

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