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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


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But the NAM had nearly 0 qpf in NYC/LI today through Mid Afternoon and they have at least 3 inches of wet snow/sleet here in Riverhead and could be close to .4" qpf fell with that stuff.

It has not been OTS for about 2-3 days now. But actually NAM pointed out the (what we thought was) convective feedback (that worked out). Amazing coup for them imho.

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If the euro didn't blink in it's most recent 12z and 0z runs, its track and ensembles leading up to this were nearly right on except for the extent to which it goes north. Not saying it did better or worse than the other models cause it clearly missed some major changes with the 2 precip shields etc etc. But gotta admit it and its ensembles was pegging benchmark or just inside with a consolidated stacked low for a solid 5 days straight (until it lost it) and that looks to be the most likely result here, am I wrong?

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Then again....if this happens as new NAM/GFS depict...perhaps Euro gets some cred back?

I was just about to post this to you; on the final possible run, the NAM and GFS actually pulled back towards the Euro.

The solution still has to verify (the standard, here, of course, is me getting enough snow to feel satisfied), but if it does, the Euro gets some credit in my opinion.

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I don't think you'd find many people that would agree with that..other than the NAM was right about splitting into 2 pieces.

Fact is none of the models did well..but I certainly wouldn't say the GFS /NAm were better than the Euro which showed a hit from the get go..just too much of a hit

I think the issue is Euro first signaled cold....but held the consolidated track up to the last second almost. So uneurolike.

I hate to use this but CMC next week is a nice snowstorm while Euro is a SWFE. I wonder if the truth is somewhere in the middle. Bottom line, shoveling's coming and this old man is happy.

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Ok I'm leaving this culinary establishment (McDonalds. ;) to head back west toward NYC..maybe get by there before it gets heavy. I'm trying to time this so I start north of NYC just after the worst rush hour..... I'll arrive home to starlight.... or a couple flurries.

I think the issue is Euro first signaled cold....but held the consolidated track up to the last second almost. So uneurolike.

I hate to use this but CMC next week is a nice snowstorm while Euro is a SWFE. I wonder if the truth is somewhere in the middle. Bottom line, shoveling's coming and this old man is happy.

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I think the issue is Euro first signaled cold....but held the consolidated track up to the last second almost. So uneurolike.

I hate to use this but CMC next week is a nice snowstorm while Euro is a SWFE. I wonder if the truth is somewhere in the middle. Bottom line, shoveling's coming and this old man is happy.

The EURO is a SWFE for NNE...it's just about all rain, here.

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I think I missed this before, good lord...that much MORE from OKX!?

CTZ005>012-NYZ078-079-177-271015-

/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110127T1100Z/

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-

NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-

SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-

413 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST

THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...9 TO 13 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH

ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS EAST AND ALONG THE COAST.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING

RAIN...BECOMING A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INTO

TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS DURING THE EVENING

COMMUTE AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW

FALLING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NEAR BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT

ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEASTERN LONG ISLAND.

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I am getting pumped for an all out snow assault tonight..Everything coming together perfectly it appears.. The Rev is chucking...Who's with me??!!

Can I be with you even though I am on the western edge of Essex county Mass? I can hope I get decent snow can't I?

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