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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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thanks.

i think you might be done with the sleet option. maybe you mix some this evening when this initial slug of moisture lifts through and things quiet down or whatnot, but this is (imo) predominantly snow now for most of the upper cape etc.

Phil what do you think that was earlier? I'm using NOAA's radar so it lags but flakes changed then fog, then sleet/snow over to sleet. radar showed it drying from NW to SE in a few quick frames...then it all lifted north and we're back to all snow. Surface temps dropped the entire time.

Going to measure right now.

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Accuweather teenager forum is great for that. This is a little too adult. If you really want her interested in WX science send her to the University Of Illinois online tutorials. Chat rooms are not places for kids.

HOLY huge aggregates again

Thanks Ginx.

This forum isn't a chat room though. Here's the chat room: Am Wx chat

This is a serious weather forum. That it's filled with adults doesn't require the puerile tone some adopt when weenie talk begins.

The weenie icon is not a penis. It's a hot dog in a bun.

I do appreciate your info. Thanks again.

Vim Toot!

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Phil what do you think that was earlier? I'm using NOAA's radar so it lags but flakes changed then fog, then sleet/snow over to sleet. radar showed it drying from NW to SE in a few quick frames...then it all lifted north and we're back to all snow. Surface temps dropped the entire time.

Going to measure right now.

Get your boots on big daddy is coming

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Gotta say, the upstream radar is pretty damn impressive. Filling in very nicely in NE PA as well. Going to be an interesting afternoon.

Wonder if that heavy dBZ in MD is sleet reflection or convection. Impressive if the latter.

Both, actually. Lots of reports of thundersleet around DCA in the MidAtl thread. Seems the changeover to snow is working through that area now. Fun to read the elation in the posts.

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That it's filled with adults doesn't require the puerile tone some adopt when weenie talk begins.

Similarly, that you're here does not require that it alter its ways to meet your demands.

I think it's time we put this particular side discussion to rest, especially with the storm looking suddenly more promising than it did earlier.

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The ARW/NMM illustrations were just that...illustrations. It's not looking for something to go wrong, it's looking at all the possibilities.

So we're coming at it from the same viewpoint what do you see that's changed for tonight that isn't the 18z NAM? I'm not following the other threads....

Thanks!

Talking mainly about the current surface depiction, WV, Radar, trajectory, etc. rather than the models - although it doesnt hurt to have the most recent model show a good solution.

Check the current 3 hr surface pressure drops off the mid atl, just about perfect IMO - rapid intensification and consolidation of the energy in the system should yield a really good result for much of the area (and intensification supported by the lightning strikes and convective look to the radar in that area). Plus as others have pointed out, the northern wave seems to be hitting a brick wall (although that battle is not yet decided imo and something to keep watching).

post-1511-0-22905500-1296074842.gif

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If you look closely on radar you can see a little line of precip from Buffalo extending to Burlington, moving along this axis and slowly dropping southeast. The storm itself centered off the delmarva is racing this line and that will dictate where exactly the sharp cutoff is and who ends up in the heaviest precip bands. :)

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Thanks Ginx.

This forum isn't a chat room though. Here's the chat room: Am Wx chat

This is a serious weather forum. That it's filled with adults doesn't require the puerile tone some adopt when weenie talk begins.

The weenie icon is not a penis. It's a hot dog in a bun.

I do appreciate your info. Thanks again.

Vim Toot!

Not that it matters, but for once I support what Toot is saying...

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Both, actually. Lots of reports of thundersleet around DCA in the MidAtl thread. Seems the changeover to snow is working through that area now. Fun to read the elation in the posts.

Thundersleet...that sounds awful yet intriguing at the same time :lol:. Thanks.

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Phil what do you think that was earlier? I'm using NOAA's radar so it lags but flakes changed then fog, then sleet/snow over to sleet. radar showed it drying from NW to SE in a few quick frames...then it all lifted north and we're back to all snow. Surface temps dropped the entire time.

Going to measure right now.

i can't say for sure. soundings are certainly marginal. there are probably pockets of warmer air tucked in here and there...as evidence by the thickness values we are seeing modeled. if you lose the heavier precip it can flip and then flip back. there was also some strong echoes coming in SW of you at that time so maybe some kind of weird temporary weakening to the ENE of it for a brief time. who knows.

regardless i think overall the big thump later on should be predominantly snow.

monster flakes here. HUGE.

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2 inches down in Woonsocket, and huge aggregates coming down. I had graupel on my car when I left work in Franklin, but it's all snow here at home. Stopped off for provisions (Harpoon Chocolate Stout - it's f'n delicious - buy it if you see it!), and TAN just upped me back up to 10.1. They canceled a boring meeting I was supposed to go to this afternoon, so I am home sipping my stout and watching all the beauty. Life is good.

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Some of this is old but it is a damn fun/good read from Upton:

BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS MOST OF THE WARNING

AREA...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NY/NJ METRO...NORTHERN HALF OF

LI AND SOUTHERN CONN. THIS FIRST HIT OF SNOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE

AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. POSSIBLE CAUSE FOR POOR MODEL HANDLING OF THIS

WAS DUE TO PROLIFIC CONVECTION OVER THE GULF INTERRUPTING MODEL

HANDLING OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED.

A BRIEF RESPITE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN (FZRA

INTERIOR) CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THIS WAA FORCING. BUT

ALREADY PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND

SOUTHERN NJ AHEAD OF AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH VERY

HEAVY AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS VIRGINIA/MD ASSOCIATED

WITH STRONG PVA/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.

SO SECOND HALF OF STORM ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF

TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPPER JET AND A

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PIVOTING NE FROM CAROLINA TO SE OF LI BY AROUND

06Z TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT

TRACKS ENE FROM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK

DURING THIS TIME.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG PVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS UPPER ENERGY AND GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE

BEING WRAPPED BACK BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO RAPIDLY

DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

ANY MIXED PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO THE SNOW IN

RESPONSE TO STRONG VERTICAL MOTION.

HEAVY SNOW BANDING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA DUE TO THE

STRONG DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF

INSTABILITY NOSING IN ALOFT...WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF THUNDERSNOW

THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY THIS

EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. FAR

NW ZONES WILL BE ON NW PERIPHERY...SO LOOKING FOR A SHORTER PERIOD

OF MODERATE SNOW.

HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN

MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS

INTO THE OPEN WATERS.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED THIS

EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS

JUST SE OF THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN LI AND

SE CONN. WILL MENTION NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN

AREAS...BUT DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL WHERE THE

STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT

LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL NOT UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS.

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Come on guys, why shouldn't this be a place for a 10-year old? This is probably one of, if not the best place to go to if you want to learn about the weather/science. If I knew weather boards existed when I was 10 I would have been on them every second of my free time. All I'm going to say on this so this doesn;t get any more OT than it is.

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