Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 thanks. i think you might be done with the sleet option. maybe you mix some this evening when this initial slug of moisture lifts through and things quiet down or whatnot, but this is (imo) predominantly snow now for most of the upper cape etc. Phil what do you think that was earlier? I'm using NOAA's radar so it lags but flakes changed then fog, then sleet/snow over to sleet. radar showed it drying from NW to SE in a few quick frames...then it all lifted north and we're back to all snow. Surface temps dropped the entire time. Going to measure right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You can see the inflow very nicely! http://rap.ucar.edu/...e=-1&duration=1 seems like it is trending a little better than expected for WNE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dom I'm feeling really confident we see some type of deformation band up our way per the ruc... teens just to our north.. 30s to our south.. that screams convergence We'll see. Really liking the look of the radar upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Strange to see box with only winter weather advisory for one county in NH? nothing to the east or west. looks odd especially with what nam is saying?!! This storm is really playing games with everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 they added thunder- snow to the forcast for tonight with the possibiliy of up to 10 more inches. fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have never seen such a roller coaster of emotions so close to the event and with no full conclusion as of yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 light snow! this is looking good now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thank you. My wxtap image did not work. This tells the story very very well http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html Take your picks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Accuweather teenager forum is great for that. This is a little too adult. If you really want her interested in WX science send her to the University Of Illinois online tutorials. Chat rooms are not places for kids. HOLY huge aggregates again Thanks Ginx. This forum isn't a chat room though. Here's the chat room: Am Wx chat This is a serious weather forum. That it's filled with adults doesn't require the puerile tone some adopt when weenie talk begins. The weenie icon is not a penis. It's a hot dog in a bun. I do appreciate your info. Thanks again. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 did this system slow down? it really looks like it moving pretty slugish to me on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thank you. My wxtap image did not work. I only wish I knew how to post it loop wise. seems like it is trending a little better than expected for WNE.. It's definitely been getting better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Phil what do you think that was earlier? I'm using NOAA's radar so it lags but flakes changed then fog, then sleet/snow over to sleet. radar showed it drying from NW to SE in a few quick frames...then it all lifted north and we're back to all snow. Surface temps dropped the entire time. Going to measure right now. Get your boots on big daddy is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gotta say, the upstream radar is pretty damn impressive. Filling in very nicely in NE PA as well. Going to be an interesting afternoon. Wonder if that heavy dBZ in MD is sleet reflection or convection. Impressive if the latter. Both, actually. Lots of reports of thundersleet around DCA in the MidAtl thread. Seems the changeover to snow is working through that area now. Fun to read the elation in the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That it's filled with adults doesn't require the puerile tone some adopt when weenie talk begins. Similarly, that you're here does not require that it alter its ways to meet your demands. I think it's time we put this particular side discussion to rest, especially with the storm looking suddenly more promising than it did earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The ARW/NMM illustrations were just that...illustrations. It's not looking for something to go wrong, it's looking at all the possibilities. So we're coming at it from the same viewpoint what do you see that's changed for tonight that isn't the 18z NAM? I'm not following the other threads.... Thanks! Talking mainly about the current surface depiction, WV, Radar, trajectory, etc. rather than the models - although it doesnt hurt to have the most recent model show a good solution. Check the current 3 hr surface pressure drops off the mid atl, just about perfect IMO - rapid intensification and consolidation of the energy in the system should yield a really good result for much of the area (and intensification supported by the lightning strikes and convective look to the radar in that area). Plus as others have pointed out, the northern wave seems to be hitting a brick wall (although that battle is not yet decided imo and something to keep watching). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If you look closely on radar you can see a little line of precip from Buffalo extending to Burlington, moving along this axis and slowly dropping southeast. The storm itself centered off the delmarva is racing this line and that will dictate where exactly the sharp cutoff is and who ends up in the heaviest precip bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks Ginx. This forum isn't a chat room though. Here's the chat room: Am Wx chat This is a serious weather forum. That it's filled with adults doesn't require the puerile tone some adopt when weenie talk begins. The weenie icon is not a penis. It's a hot dog in a bun. I do appreciate your info. Thanks again. Vim Toot! Not that it matters, but for once I support what Toot is saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Both, actually. Lots of reports of thundersleet around DCA in the MidAtl thread. Seems the changeover to snow is working through that area now. Fun to read the elation in the posts. Thundersleet...that sounds awful yet intriguing at the same time . Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Phil what do you think that was earlier? I'm using NOAA's radar so it lags but flakes changed then fog, then sleet/snow over to sleet. radar showed it drying from NW to SE in a few quick frames...then it all lifted north and we're back to all snow. Surface temps dropped the entire time. Going to measure right now. i can't say for sure. soundings are certainly marginal. there are probably pockets of warmer air tucked in here and there...as evidence by the thickness values we are seeing modeled. if you lose the heavier precip it can flip and then flip back. there was also some strong echoes coming in SW of you at that time so maybe some kind of weird temporary weakening to the ENE of it for a brief time. who knows. regardless i think overall the big thump later on should be predominantly snow. monster flakes here. HUGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 3.1. heading out to do first cleanup, still huge aggregates, snow blowing off roof every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Uh nah , letting it go Just massive aggregates. Burl and Ives right now, that scene this moring with the ice fog and snow was spectacular. LOL. I'm sure Mr. Ives approves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not that it matters, but for once I support what Toot is saying... Thanks. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 2 inches down in Woonsocket, and huge aggregates coming down. I had graupel on my car when I left work in Franklin, but it's all snow here at home. Stopped off for provisions (Harpoon Chocolate Stout - it's f'n delicious - buy it if you see it!), and TAN just upped me back up to 10.1. They canceled a boring meeting I was supposed to go to this afternoon, so I am home sipping my stout and watching all the beauty. Life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some of this is old but it is a damn fun/good read from Upton: BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS MOST OF THE WARNINGAREA...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NY/NJ METRO...NORTHERN HALF OF LI AND SOUTHERN CONN. THIS FIRST HIT OF SNOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. POSSIBLE CAUSE FOR POOR MODEL HANDLING OF THIS WAS DUE TO PROLIFIC CONVECTION OVER THE GULF INTERRUPTING MODEL HANDLING OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED. A BRIEF RESPITE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN (FZRA INTERIOR) CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THIS WAA FORCING. BUT ALREADY PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN NJ AHEAD OF AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH VERY HEAVY AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS VIRGINIA/MD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PVA/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. SO SECOND HALF OF STORM ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPPER JET AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PIVOTING NE FROM CAROLINA TO SE OF LI BY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS ENE FROM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK DURING THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG PVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS UPPER ENERGY AND GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED BACK BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ANY MIXED PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO THE SNOW IN RESPONSE TO STRONG VERTICAL MOTION. HEAVY SNOW BANDING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA DUE TO THE STRONG DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY NOSING IN ALOFT...WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF THUNDERSNOW THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. FAR NW ZONES WILL BE ON NW PERIPHERY...SO LOOKING FOR A SHORTER PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW. HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OPEN WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST SE OF THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CONN. WILL MENTION NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...BUT DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL NOT UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thundersleet...that sounds awful yet intriguing at the same time . Thanks. If sleet is like kissing your sister... is that like being raped by your sister's friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Come on guys, why shouldn't this be a place for a 10-year old? This is probably one of, if not the best place to go to if you want to learn about the weather/science. If I knew weather boards existed when I was 10 I would have been on them every second of my free time. All I'm going to say on this so this doesn;t get any more OT than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 FWIW, snowing pretty hard at State College PA, while the NAM had virtually nothing for them. Gotta watch the nw side of these systems as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Someone named Mica Vim Toot is telling me to stop with the penis jokes? What did I miss? I figured that was your drag name. Mark, I get the sense that you are going to embarrass yourself at the GTG. And others. Vim Toot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If sleet is like kissing your sister... is that like being raped by your sister's friend? Yeah, probably something like that. Not an ideal situation, but yet not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOL - those hvy radar returns are monstrous pancake size flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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