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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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JFK reporting 1/4 +SN

and LGA

Look at the 13z ruc people!!!

Will have you ever seen the RUC And other models this far off?? Its continuously hammered SNH points south with Probably a foot of snow... Jan 2000 you think?

Is there any hope for me up here?

I don't think well see as tight of gradient as modelled

.. ruc or bust

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wow what a nowcasting event!!! how exciting!

I think southern CT is going to get rocked today... they may get 7-12+ out of this.

I'm thinking like 5-10 for HFD/TOL?

First guesses here tho haven't looked at much

Looking at Radar and models, I'd definitely want to be SE of I-84 through CT. Inside of I-90 out to exit 9 (Sturbridge) and down I-84 looks golden... NW of that the jury is still out.

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How do you like this statement from NYC?

A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA

THROUGH 1 PM. THIS BAND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF

MILE...WITH SOME SPOTS FALLING BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. SNOWFALL

RATES IN THIS BAND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A HALF TO ONE INCH AN

HOUR. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH 1 PM.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING THIS

MORNING.

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Look at the 13z ruc people!!!

Will have you ever seen the RUC And other models this far off?? Its continuously hammered SNH points south with Probably a foot of snow... Jan 2000 you think?

Is there any hope for me up here?

I don't think well see as tight of gradient as modelled

.. ruc or bust

:weenie: for the Jan 2000 comment...

and I actually do think we will see as tight a gradient as modeled. This something where a SE side of a county gets a foot and the NW side gets 3".

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BOX

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO PATCHY FOG IMPROVING THIS MORNING. LOW

CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW

INCREASES. ALSO NOTING HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A STORM

SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST. NOTED SNOW MOVING UP THE COAST A BIT FASTER THAN

FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SPEED UP THE ONSET OF SNOW...

PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. HAVE LIGHT SNOW STARTING

BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY. THIS AS A

RESULT OF INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS

AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE H85 AIRMASS WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER

DRY...THE COLUMN HAS MOISTENED ENOUGH THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW

IS FALLING IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AT 9 AM. THERMAL PROFILES

REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE

SE COAST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM PLUS 2

TO PLUS 3 CELSIUS WITHIN THE LOWEST 200 FEET...COURTESY OF THE

ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXING IN DURING THE

START OF THIS EVENT.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

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:weenie: for the Jan 2000 comment...

and I actually do think we will see as tight a gradient as modeled. This something where a SE side of a county gets a foot and the NW side gets 3".

My big question on today, part 1...is how tight is the gradient? Is the RUC overblowing the northern extent and it's instead a super tight gradient?

Or not?

I'd like to see Will/Scott and others way in, nobody cares if we're right/wrong at this point on this part...is it coming or not?

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Ryan, what do you think about the Waterbury area in terms of snow amounts and conds. this morning into the aftn?

light snow already in nothern new haven county.. its coming for you and nothing to stop it according to radar.. i think something like 2-5' through the southern half of ct before the main event tonight..

some areas of pa and jersey are reporting 2-3"/hr and its all rotating up here and filling in to our south.. perfect scenario..it keeps on filling in and snows non stop until just after midnight.. with average intensity of an inch per hour that yields 15".. worst case the precip is really spotty after this and we only get 2-5" from the second part tonight..

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RUC has had a bit of a nw bias with most of our storms this winter.

No doubt that's part of the solutions we are seeing but how much?

OSU the NAM was pretty attrocious again.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110125&endTime=-1&duration=6

Off the DE coast...the dry edge of the dry punch. I don't know but my thought is we start to see some progression of the back edge now?

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