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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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AWT the NW trend the final 12 hours has recommenced..and I think we'll find the Euro actually had the right idea yesterday..before the last 2 runs today and last nite

Ever since I woke up to beautiful snowy looking clouds this morning I've felt that this thing was heading in a good direction, current low per meso <998 already and moving NE. 8-14" first and final call for BOS - ORH to Kevin and down to Plymouth, Northern edge kissing Ray.

Definitely was down last night due to the 0z disaster on the models but optimistic!

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And I thought I was clueless before. Just looked at the NAM and threw my hands up! I don't get it!

It's okay. This one confused the **** out of me, too. And I usually at least pretend I have a handle on things.

I'm just going to watch radar and look outside for the rest of the evening.

If it snows... great.

If not so much... fine.

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18z nam isn't so terrible.

If it weren't the NAM I'd go back to 6-12 for will/jerry/kev/ray.....but it seems to overcorrect in the off hour runs.

The GFS is likely to come NW too, but the race is on. Clear drying associated with the kicker now into OH and about to bump up against the m/l for the first time.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110126&endTime=-1&duration=6

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Back after a late night / busy morning...

This may be a weeniexaggeration, but here in Boston I think we're approach a snowfall rate of 1" / 36 hrs! Anyone else wanna verify?

I hope this SNE winter does not parallel the Patriots season... every game you just know we're gonna win just like we all knew it's gonna snow here cuz it just wants to this winter. . . Until the Patriots didn't show up to the Jets game, and yesterday the SNE juju just evaporated.

18Z RUC promising a nice CCB swipe across C to E Mass tonight..

18Z ETA salvaging hope of something decent tonight...

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Ever since I woke up to beautiful snowy looking clouds this morning I've felt that this thing was heading in a good direction, current low per meso <998 already and moving NE. 8-14" first and final call for BOS - ORH to Kevin and down to Plymouth, Northern edge kissing Ray.

Definitely was down last night due to the 0z disaster on the models but optimistic!

In another winter this would have shat the bed...but in a snowy winter..every snow event tends to overproduce.. I'm not sure what the reasoning is..or even if there is one..other than the weenie phrase snow breeds snow.

I like 8-12 with lolli's to 16 maybe in NW RI

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I saved you the time...since I've done it before I know what needs to be done to quickly to clean it up and do the seasonal averages. Here's what I get for Top 10 at BDR since 1948-49

1995-1996: 79.7"

1977-1978: 67.6"

1966-1967: 62.1"

1993-1994: 60.0"

2004-2005: 57.0"

1964-1965: 55.8"

1948-1949: 54.3"

1960-1961: 53.9"

2008-2009: 52.1"

1957-1958: 51.5"

So maybe still a little ways to go to break into top 10 down that way? Either way...we're on pace to get there.

Hey thanks again! Yeah for them a ways to go as they come in to today with 41.2, but tonight could very well throw BDR into the top 10. 60 seems well within reach for the season if not 70.

Struggling to hold on to flurries here. This is our lull.

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For the first time since 9 am the snow has completely stopped. Stoked to see the nam and some in house wrf's spread the love for all of sne, sucks reporting snow when many are not seeing it, things should absolutely rock tonight, good luck to all!:weight_lift::snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

Good man many many nights I spent on here reading the reports from North of me, happy they were getting blitzed, get the feeling from some posters that feeling is not mutual. Back down to normal flakes but good snow growth just not pancakes here.

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It started about 5 minutes ago. Still in the light flurry stage.

We've been getting some good sized flakes here over the course of the past 20 minutes or so...the intensity is on the light to moderate side at times so it's not really accumulating quickly but hopefully BDL can squeak out a good 1/2'' within the next 90 min.

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Paul, The scary part is by the looks of the radar trends and convection potential, the 18z NAM may be under doing it here!

We've been getting some good sized flakes here over the course of the past 20 minutes or so...the intensity is on the light to moderate side at times so it's not really accumulating quickly but hopefully BDL can squeak out a good 1/2'' within the next 90 min.

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If it weren't the NAM I'd go back to 6-12 for will/jerry/kev/ray.....but it seems to overcorrect in the off hour runs.

The GFS is likely to come NW too, but the race is on. Clear drying associated with the kicker now into OH and about to bump up against the m/l for the first time.

http://www.rap.ucar....e=-1&duration=6

yup ....we just need to hope the nam can produce a decent 12 hour forecast for once.

confidence is skyyy high lol.

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if you believe the NAM, BOS down through the cape will probably have borderline blizzard conditions at times overnight. 925 winds really crank just as the core of the comma head is pushing over the region. that would probably be S/S+ with G 30 to 40 knots. LOL.

Yeah...something ain't right if you and I are included in that. The latent heat release from Ray's workout at the gym is going to draw the low NW and we'll flip to rain.

Good man many many nights I spent on here reading the reports from North of me, happy they were getting blitzed, get the feeling from some posters that feeling is not mutual. Back down to normal flakes but good snow growth just not pancakes here.

Quite common. I enjoy every storm, if later tonight some are on the outside looking in they'll be gone/grapes.

Getting windy here all snow again. Radar showed a burst of dry air and with that came the mix, washed out with the heavier stuff.

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In another winter this would have shat the bed...but in a snowy winter..every snow event tends to overproduce.. I'm not sure what the reasoning is..or even if there is one..other than the weenie phrase snow breeds snow.

I like 8-12 with lolli's to 16 maybe in NW RI

this has been a snowy winter here, but this event sure as hell wont over-produce up here.

every storm over-produces in one area, and under-produces in another.

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