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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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Everyone's been saying the RUC is awful outside of 6 hours... but this winter it has done ok. The RUC is almost always further NW than other guidance, especially with coastal lows, however this season it has been correct because a lot of these storms have come in a bit further NW than progged. Its sort of like the blind mouse finding the cheese... same with JB and all those forecasters that love to hype and say snow will be further NW than modeled. This is the winter where they are correct, lol.

Will had a nice outline for it and I agree. It can do weird things sometimes when we are beyond 6-8 hrs. However, if it is very persistent with a certain feature and this carries into the 6-8hr time frame, then perhaps one should take notice. It has done well at times this winter.

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It is funny though that some storms people just bash and bash the RUC if it starts showing something that goes against the collective desire. It starts showing something perceived as "good" and folks start posting it like its the EURO.

Forget the models... it has wanted to snow in SNE this winter. Just like it wanted to snow in the mid-Atlantic last winter. It will continue to snow where it wants to snow, so I don't think any of you that have been getting routinely hit have anything to worry about.

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Everyone's been saying the RUC is awful outside of 6 hours... but this winter it has done ok. The RUC is almost always further NW than other guidance, especially with coastal lows, however this season it has been correct because a lot of these storms have come in a bit further NW than progged. Its sort of like the blind mouse finding the cheese... same with JB and all those forecasters that love to hype and say snow will be further NW than modeled. This is the winter where they are correct, lol.

The RUC is fine. It's probably overdoing it, but either way the premise is the same, the first pulse, a dry slot (not here, I mean from NE to Sw....the dry slot is destroyed by the piece coming up from the Sw later), then the second pulse developing in the carolinas now as the m/l wraps NE. The more precip/moisture left in place from piece 1 even if it's mostly under .25"....awesome for tonight.

In the end, a compromise was in order...the first batch didn't get totally blasted out to sea, and although the NAM/RUC are probably each partially right the big deal is that a lot more moisture is left in place for tonight when the best dynamics descend on the innocent victims of SNE/ESE CNE.

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Not what I wanted to hear. The onset looks way earlier than I expected.

Same here. I have a commute home from Framingham to Worcester at 5pm, looking dicey.

I actually woke up this morning not very concerned at all about this storm, but looking at the latest trends and radar makes me go, what the NAM is going on here!?

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Will had a nice outline for it and I agree. It can do weird things sometimes when we are beyond 6-8 hrs. However, if it is very persistent with a certain feature and this carries into the 6-8hr time frame, then perhaps one should take notice. It has done well at times this winter.

Very true. There's some subtle signs in the new run that it's compromising SE...but in the end I think the general outcome of the potential dry slot to our south being pointed more NW than right at us is a great thing. The UK etc last night had it pointed dead south of RI/E CT...that's where they setup the pivot point. Being tucked west a little to me means we see more moisture left.

The NAM has a qpf gradient from hell.

THAT I think is the first thing it's gotten right.

Hopefully that area is BOS to HFD

I think you get hit pretty hard tonight Kev. 6-12, and have to watch the banding.

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Nice bump up in total QPF too.

nam_p24_024m.gif

Tight gradient to the NW, though.

Still nervous here in Boston (I can't help it).

RUC says it starts earlier than previously anticipated as the nearer batch of precip works its way in... but I don't see that happening.

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Very true. There's some subtle signs in the new run that it's compromising SE...but in the end I think the general outcome of the potential dry slot to our south being pointed more NW than right at us is a great thing. The UK etc last night had it pointed dead south of RI/E CT...that's where they setup the pivot point. Being tucked west a little to me means we see more moisture left.

THAT I think is the first thing it's gotten right.

I think you get hit pretty hard tonight Kev. 6-12, and have to watch the banding.

What do you think about daylight today in CT? Just lighter stuff? looks to me like it's coming faster and heaver than thought

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Based on latest RUC storm will overperform. How far north that inflow gets is key. Boston points S&E looking mighty fine. Nowcast FTW

The RUC can be downright terrible at times...

If precip works into eastern Mass by 1 PM, I'll return its phone calls.

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Will had a nice outline for it and I agree. It can do weird things sometimes when we are beyond 6-8 hrs. However, if it is very persistent with a certain feature and this carries into the 6-8hr time frame, then perhaps one should take notice. It has done well at times this winter.

Oh yeah, trust me I know because I've been on the NW fringe of a lot of these systems and the RUC has been more correct than not in depicting the NW edge. It really nailed the big blizzard (for SNE) because no models showed us getting 10" up here, except Mr. RUC.

It was pretty awful though in the "failed" HECS earlier in the year.

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JFK reporting 1/4 +SN

and LGA

As soon as I saw the snow covered roads this morning I KNEW the forecasts of mixing were going to be a BUST haha. It's been snowing hard here and this is the same thing that happened with Dec 2003. The only difference is this storm isnt supposed to last as long. Its snowing clear down to ACY and its pretty clear there wont be any mixing.

The radiational cooling helped us out; we were down in the mid 20s this morning. The two storms this reminds me of are actually Dec 2003 and Apr 1996-- we got a lot of radiational cooling before that one started too and that enabled us to start as snow instead of a mix, giving us a head start on accumulations. We already have over an inch on the ground.

BTW Philly people are reporting 2-3 inches per hour. We dont have quite those rates here, but all the roads have been snowcovered this morning and we have over an inch of new snow on the ground. I hope the really heavy stuff makes it all the way up here and then to you! :)

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Not for northern, Mass and SNH. Probably just a few inches. But I'll take it. Hopefully we'll get something from the clipper this weekend and we still have Feb and March to go. 33" so far this season. Not even half our seasonal average.

Will's in charge of the nowcast but....

We should see a super tight gradient tonight and like so many other storms someone is going to get nailed on the western edge. Further east Bob looks great...NAM ticked NW of the RGEM jackpot last night.

It's going to get absolutely wild tonight in SNE.

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What do you think about daylight today in CT? Just lighter stuff? looks to me like it's coming faster and heaver than thought

Big caveat as I'm doing a few different things and didn't really look that closely at CT...

Looks to me like it's starting to swing more east as it comes further north. The RUC would have most of CT in accumulating snows, the NAM none. Probably a compromise with snow/snow showers overspreading the state from south to north as the day goes on. I don't know how far north it gets, but maybe the southern 1/2 or better yet SE 1/3 or 1/2...going to have a tight gradient. I don't really know Kev but I think it could scrape the coast pretty hard.

Following the heavier echoes they are moving much more east than north but the band as a whole is lifting north. I guess it depends on ground truth right now/what's falling but I could easily see a dusting to a couple of inches (3, 4?) in CT from this first band, over through parts of RI SE MA and the Cape...think we're too warm here though.

Being honest....it's a real tight call for me/you today on this first batch.

I just don't know...would want to see the radar over the next hour or two not shunt east otherwise it could spread up over a lot of us.

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