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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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Its too soon to take down once its been up....they will likely wait until more obvious trends occur later in the afternoon to shift it if need be. It would look awfully silly to downgrade it to an advisory only to have to re-issue the warning should it become apparent you are going to get clocked for awhile by the CCB.

I understand the politics at play, but what I mean was that in a perfect world, it would be an ADV.

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went from fat flakes to fine small flakes in RI, temps must have lowered slightly.

Just noticed the same thing.

RI EMA is asking businesses to let their employees out early. It seems too late for that.

People are probably better off waiting for the EOD and head home once roads have been cleared.

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Yeap on all counts. We will end up near 4 here and we can squeeze out 6-8 tonight.

I should start calling this the bonus round instead of round one. Moderate is here for me and heavy looks to be moving in.

Technically both are right...it is round 1...was modeled well for the past day or two...models just had it only affecting PA/NJ/NYC/LI. The fact that it was modeled to miss us also makes it a bonus.

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looks to pick back up again for you soon. what a crazy 30-hour period along the shoreline eh? First yesterday's overperformer. Then today's early arrival.

Today looks just like yesterday, perfect dendrites, what a wonderland, this mornings ice fog look was breathtaking. Perfect dendrites slowly parachuting down.

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Next week could easily be nothing, followed by a torch....that looked like an epic winter wouldn't quite appear to be so epic.

but next week could just easily transition to the coastal storm that was expected today.....meh on the models from my end at this range.

and every winter has its ups and down, including epic ones....see my 2008 story.

question, what date was your personal + historical snow depth records set?

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I just got home and yes, it's thumping pretty good. About an inch already.

an here i am sitting at exit 18 of of 495, with nothing but weenie flakes...wishing the snow could put me in a better mood...had to say goodbye to Brown Bunny this morning...cancer...BAH!!! at least she is not suffering... :(

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I just think people shouldn't be verifying or dismissing the forecasts of any meteorologist until the event has happened. Forecasts aren't verified on model output, they're verified based on what happens outside the window. You can see on WV imagery that the Great Lakes shortwave is clearly phasing into the southern stream trough, so we'll see how far west the storm gets. It already seems to be tracking on the western edge of guidance, plenty of room for more shifts as this is a very dynamic system. Not saying that SNE will get the brunt of it, but people should just wait instead of pretending the 12z ECM is god.

No one called for 5" here this morning, but as soon as I saw radar breaking out down South, I knew we were going to get pounded despite the GFS and NAM showing the banding dying out in VA. There was a clear SW-NE movement on radar with the WAA snows, and they are giving NY/CT a good show right now, more than expected. I also stuck to an 8-14" forecast for my area despite people telling me it was too much and models backing down on QPF. I wouldn't be surprised if we get towards the top end of that given what's happening in WV/PA/VA right now.

Not it's not. But OK. Do you even know what a phase is or would look like on WV? Moreover, the GL s/w is right were it was modeled to be.

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