hooralph Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 4.9" is my first and last call for BOS It's an overperformer, except where the gradient is getting sharper and falling faster than Jay Cutler's stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The remnants are not impressive here in Stratford - light snow, can't even crack moderate so far though we may in a few minutes. Westport/Fairfield looks to get heavy stuff for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 mod snow now impressive bands developing to the sw and moving more ne instead of ene earlier in the day.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Jackpot Block Island! Congrats to a 10 square mile land mass and the 1,000 or so people that may live there. Even better congrats to the fish in the proximaty. . . . Seriously, good for them. Not too sure how often they get a good dumping down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well, that coupled with the concerns expressed by others should have given me pause in the end......but I did a terrible job here and Messenger was outstanding. sure...but it actually took two relatively odd things for this to trend slightly southeast and not northwest in the past 48 hours. You have a lead shortwave convective thingy hurting downstream ridging and a faster and stronger kicker than modeled a few days ago. Even then, the models missed on the snow this morning and early this afternoon for southern areas in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 4.9" is my first and last call for BOS It's an overperformer, except where the gradient is getting sharper and falling faster than Jay Cutler's stock. Why are you taking our Christmas tree, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 28F and thumping at home. I just got home and yes, it's thumping pretty good. About an inch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 went from fat flakes to fine small flakes in RI, temps must have lowered slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I just think people shouldn't be verifying or dismissing the forecasts of any meteorologist until the event has happened. Forecasts aren't verified on model output, they're verified based on what happens outside the window. You can see on WV imagery that the Great Lakes shortwave is clearly phasing into the southern stream trough, so we'll see how far west the storm gets. It already seems to be tracking on the western edge of guidance, plenty of room for more shifts as this is a very dynamic system. Not saying that SNE will get the brunt of it, but people should just wait instead of pretending the 12z ECM is god. No one called for 5" here this morning, but as soon as I saw radar breaking out down South, I knew we were going to get pounded despite the GFS and NAM showing the banding dying out in VA. There was a clear SW-NE movement on radar with the WAA snows, and they are giving NY/CT a good show right now, more than expected. I also stuck to an 8-14" forecast for my area despite people telling me it was too much and models backing down on QPF. I wouldn't be surprised if we get towards the top end of that given what's happening in WV/PA/VA right now. fair enough, i agree nowcasting is more important in the leadup right before the event.....but computers are defintely needed beyond that. pattern recongition is of course crucial, but its very regional based. i base all my forecasts up here mostly on pattern recogniction, and i verify almost always..... but that can fail outside my region, you just get to know your own area very well and how it does in different setups. i'm going to end up moving back to new england someday (through work) so thats part of the reason i spend a lot of time in here, since there is so much local knowledge here.....just learning. good luck with your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I just got home and yes, it's thumping pretty good. About an inch already. keep me updated on Attleboro,Seekonk, got to drive back from work in Cranston at some point, debating on 295 or driving through PVD, what you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The remnants are not impressive here in Stratford - light snow, can't even crack moderate so far though we may in a few minutes. Westport/Fairfield looks to get heavy stuff for a bit. It was light now moderate, give it a few mintues you are always about ten minutes upstream of my location, check our radar to the sw as well, more banding setting up, this is all gravy. Most modeling gives our area another .75 tonight, no reason upton does not verify with the 8-16, they certainly have the hot hand lately. Ihave a feeling this gets further north and all of sne gets in on the action at least 6"+.............. Looking at any global right now is purely a waste of time, none of them had us snowing all day, none of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 mod snow now impressive bands developing to the sw and moving more ne instead of ene earlier in the day.............. Was just looking at the DOT cam near you...lookin good...I think things get interesting from here on to tonite, this looks like its about to explode on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 . . . Slow falling, light snow. I'd say we've got an accumulation rate of about 1" per 24 hours going on out there. Not much to write home about. you must be in woodstock, dude its moderate here now after a heavy burst nearly 1 3/4 down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What an ugly RAD......23.8\21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 keep me updated on Attleboro,Seekonk, got to drive back from work in Cranston at some point, debating on 295 or driving through PVD, what you think? I came home via 295. Not bad. I don't think it'll really make much difference which way you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Heavy snow is now transitioning to a snow/sleet mix with rising visibilities in Newport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It looks like that cutoff from the HFD-Bos line NW means business. I have a hard time extrapolating radar based on my experience and seeing anything heavy getting north of that line, especially with system #2 now moving almost due east...it may even keep precip south of where #1 is experiencing mod/heavy snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 fair enough, i agree nowcasting is more important in the leadup right before the event.....but computers are defintely needed beyond that. pattern recongition is of course crucial, but its very regional based. i base all my forecasts up here mostly on pattern recogniction, and i verify almost always..... but that can fail outside my region, you just get to know your own area very well and how it does in different setups. good luck with your call. Thanks... I wasn't saying to eliminate computer modeling, obviously, since it's such a huge help in the medium range/long range. But sometimes individual storms just need to be forecasted by a human who can use experience, rather than equations, to judge what is going to happen. I also know that Miller As tend to overperform here, so it was easy to be bullish. That goes back to what you say about knowing what set-ups work for you, although there's always surprises in weather. I shouldn't have any trouble verifying since it's snowing very hard again, must be approaching 5" on the day with the CCB still to come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What an ugly RAD......23.8\21 I wonder if BOX drops the advisory up here. Seems unwarranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Was just looking at the DOT cam near you...lookin good...I think things get interesting from here on to tonite, this looks like its about to explode on radar gigantic dendrites now, just massive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow....why is the HV of NY torching so badly....is it sunny out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Congrats to a 10 square mile land mass and the 1,000 or so people that may live there. Even better congrats to the fish in the proximaty. . . . Seriously, good for them. Not too sure how often they get a good dumping down there. dude we are golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 28F and thumping at home. My digital deal is SLOW to update, it's saying 32.9 but I think it's off by about .5/1 degree usually. I bought it for $3 at Lowe's on closeout... I'm guessing it's 32 on the nose as it's accumulating even on roads. I just think people shouldn't be verifying or dismissing the forecasts of any meteorologist until the event has happened. Forecasts aren't verified on model output, they're verified based on what happens outside the window. You can see on WV imagery that the Great Lakes shortwave is clearly phasing into the southern stream trough, so we'll see how far west the storm gets. It already seems to be tracking on the western edge of guidance, plenty of room for more shifts as this is a very dynamic system. Not saying that SNE will get the brunt of it, but people should just wait instead of pretending the 12z ECM is god. No one called for 5" here this morning, but as soon as I saw radar breaking out down South, I knew we were going to get pounded despite the GFS and NAM showing the banding dying out in VA. There was a clear SW-NE movement on radar with the WAA snows, and they are giving NY/CT a good show right now, more than expected. I also stuck to an 8-14" forecast for my area despite people telling me it was too much and models backing down on QPF. I wouldn't be surprised if we get towards the top end of that given what's happening in WV/PA/VA right now. There's going to be a death band later that could give someone over a foot just in it. Where is the million dollar question. Everything else that you talk about was pretty well predicted or least within reason. Just because it's NW with the first pulse, doesn't mean much with the second as they're two different systems. The first one being further north may actually mean the m/l dug more and when it turns ENE tracks further south. I really can't see the shift SE, on ncep and definitely on twisterdata, it actually has been expanding the precip. shield quite a bit the past few runs! Just an observation and I could totally be wrong here! Earlier today it had the SLP nearing ACK, it's SE of that now. In general all it's doing is coming towards the ARW/NMM type deal but further NW which is the trend to watch. It was a pretty bold call, but it may work out. He saw the nrn stream as a kicker and as something that would prevent the expansive shield of snow northward. He upped the totals a bit since yesterday, but the way things look now..he'll probably end up verifying the best. I left things in limbo because this storm could pull a few things on us. We'll see what this does. Pretty strong banding signal still. Huge banding signal, going to be epic for someone providing it doesnt skip e. I guess hes picked up a few things over his 40 years of forecasting weather in NE. I used to watch him when we used to vacation in Maine when when I was 10, so hes been around awhile. He's gotten screwed by WBZ more times than I can count. He should be their lead forecaster if he wants it, thats no knock on the others at the station but 30-40 years in this market he deserved much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I wonder if BOX drops the advisory up here. Seems unwarranted. It should be an ADV and not a warning, here.....imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't think PVD has reported anything more than light snow all winter SPECI KPVD 261813Z 02007KT 1/2SM R05/2600V3500FT -SN BR VV004 M02/M03 A2994 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 P0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The remnants are not impressive here in Stratford - light snow, can't even crack moderate so far though we may in a few minutes. Westport/Fairfield looks to get heavy stuff for a bit. looks to pick back up again for you soon. what a crazy 30-hour period along the shoreline eh? First yesterday's overperformer. Then today's early arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 In the last 45 minutes, the temperature dropped to 23 from 25. Flakes are a lot smaller but plentiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 what a horrible forecast by the models. funny thing is...down here the forecasts of 1" QPF down here may end up being right...but only because of the models busting on this first round of precip which should make up for them overdoing the CCB totals for tonight. Yeap on all counts. We will end up near 4 here and we can squeeze out 6-8 tonight. It was light now moderate, give it a few mintues you are always about ten minutes upstream of my location, check our radar to the sw as well, more banding setting up, this is all gravy. Most modeling gives our area another .75 tonight, no reason upton does not verify with the 8-16, they certainly have the hot hand lately. Ihave a feeling this gets further north and all of sne gets in on the action at least 6"+.............. Looking at any global right now is purely a waste of time, none of them had us snowing all day, none of them. I should start calling this the bonus round instead of round one. Moderate is here for me and heavy looks to be moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It should be an ADV and not a warning, here.....imo. Its too soon to take down once its been up....they will likely wait until more obvious trends occur later in the afternoon to shift it if need be. It would look awfully silly to downgrade it to an advisory only to have to re-issue the warning should it become apparent you are going to get clocked for awhile by the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looks to pick back up again for you soon. what a crazy 30-hour period along the shoreline eh? First yesterday's overperformer. Then today's early arrival. And it has! You got that right. It is truly rare for me to wake up to surprise snow, let alone 2 days in a row. It makes you feel like a kid again when you did not follow the models closely or there were more frequent busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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