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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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Well, that coupled with the concerns expressed by others should have given me pause in the end......but I did a terrible job here and Messenger was outstanding.

sure...but it actually took two relatively odd things for this to trend slightly southeast and not northwest in the past 48 hours. You have a lead shortwave convective thingy hurting downstream ridging and a faster and stronger kicker than modeled a few days ago. Even then, the models missed on the snow this morning and early this afternoon for southern areas in New England.

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I just think people shouldn't be verifying or dismissing the forecasts of any meteorologist until the event has happened. Forecasts aren't verified on model output, they're verified based on what happens outside the window. You can see on WV imagery that the Great Lakes shortwave is clearly phasing into the southern stream trough, so we'll see how far west the storm gets. It already seems to be tracking on the western edge of guidance, plenty of room for more shifts as this is a very dynamic system. Not saying that SNE will get the brunt of it, but people should just wait instead of pretending the 12z ECM is god.

No one called for 5" here this morning, but as soon as I saw radar breaking out down South, I knew we were going to get pounded despite the GFS and NAM showing the banding dying out in VA. There was a clear SW-NE movement on radar with the WAA snows, and they are giving NY/CT a good show right now, more than expected. I also stuck to an 8-14" forecast for my area despite people telling me it was too much and models backing down on QPF. I wouldn't be surprised if we get towards the top end of that given what's happening in WV/PA/VA right now.

fair enough, i agree nowcasting is more important in the leadup right before the event.....but computers are defintely needed beyond that.

pattern recongition is of course crucial, but its very regional based.

i base all my forecasts up here mostly on pattern recogniction, and i verify almost always..... but that can fail outside my region, you just get to know your own area very well and how it does in different setups.

i'm going to end up moving back to new england someday (through work) so thats part of the reason i spend a lot of time in here, since there is so much local knowledge here.....just learning.

good luck with your call. :snowman:

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The remnants are not impressive here in Stratford - light snow, can't even crack moderate so far though we may in a few minutes. Westport/Fairfield looks to get heavy stuff for a bit.

It was light now moderate, give it a few mintues you are always about ten minutes upstream of my location, check our radar to the sw as well, more banding setting up, this is all gravy.

Most modeling gives our area another .75 tonight, no reason upton does not verify with the 8-16, they certainly have the hot hand lately.

Ihave a feeling this gets further north and all of sne gets in on the action at least 6"+..............

Looking at any global right now is purely a waste of time, none of them had us snowing all day, none of them.

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It looks like that cutoff from the HFD-Bos line NW means business. I have a hard time extrapolating radar based on my experience and seeing anything heavy getting north of that line, especially with system #2 now moving almost due east...it may even keep precip south of where #1 is experiencing mod/heavy snows...

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fair enough, i agree nowcasting is more important in the leadup right before the event.....but computers are defintely needed beyond that.

pattern recongition is of course crucial, but its very regional based.

i base all my forecasts up here mostly on pattern recogniction, and i verify almost always..... but that can fail outside my region, you just get to know your own area very well and how it does in different setups.

good luck with your call. :snowman:

Thanks... I wasn't saying to eliminate computer modeling, obviously, since it's such a huge help in the medium range/long range. But sometimes individual storms just need to be forecasted by a human who can use experience, rather than equations, to judge what is going to happen.

I also know that Miller As tend to overperform here, so it was easy to be bullish. That goes back to what you say about knowing what set-ups work for you, although there's always surprises in weather. I shouldn't have any trouble verifying since it's snowing very hard again, must be approaching 5" on the day with the CCB still to come..

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28F and thumping at home.

My digital deal is SLOW to update, it's saying 32.9 but I think it's off by about .5/1 degree usually. I bought it for $3 at Lowe's on closeout... :) I'm guessing it's 32 on the nose as it's accumulating even on roads.

I just think people shouldn't be verifying or dismissing the forecasts of any meteorologist until the event has happened. Forecasts aren't verified on model output, they're verified based on what happens outside the window. You can see on WV imagery that the Great Lakes shortwave is clearly phasing into the southern stream trough, so we'll see how far west the storm gets. It already seems to be tracking on the western edge of guidance, plenty of room for more shifts as this is a very dynamic system. Not saying that SNE will get the brunt of it, but people should just wait instead of pretending the 12z ECM is god.

No one called for 5" here this morning, but as soon as I saw radar breaking out down South, I knew we were going to get pounded despite the GFS and NAM showing the banding dying out in VA. There was a clear SW-NE movement on radar with the WAA snows, and they are giving NY/CT a good show right now, more than expected. I also stuck to an 8-14" forecast for my area despite people telling me it was too much and models backing down on QPF. I wouldn't be surprised if we get towards the top end of that given what's happening in WV/PA/VA right now.

There's going to be a death band later that could give someone over a foot just in it. Where is the million dollar question. Everything else that you talk about was pretty well predicted or least within reason. Just because it's NW with the first pulse, doesn't mean much with the second as they're two different systems. The first one being further north may actually mean the m/l dug more and when it turns ENE tracks further south.

I really can't see the shift SE, on ncep and definitely on twisterdata, it actually has been expanding the precip. shield quite a bit the past few runs! Just an observation and I could totally be wrong here!

Earlier today it had the SLP nearing ACK, it's SE of that now. In general all it's doing is coming towards the ARW/NMM type deal but further NW which is the trend to watch.

It was a pretty bold call, but it may work out. He saw the nrn stream as a kicker and as something that would prevent the expansive shield of snow northward. He upped the totals a bit since yesterday, but the way things look now..he'll probably end up verifying the best. I left things in limbo because this storm could pull a few things on us. We'll see what this does. Pretty strong banding signal still.

Huge banding signal, going to be epic for someone providing it doesnt skip e.

I guess hes picked up a few things over his 40 years of forecasting weather in NE. I used to watch him when we used to vacation in Maine when when I was 10, so hes been around awhile.

He's gotten screwed by WBZ more times than I can count. He should be their lead forecaster if he wants it, thats no knock on the others at the station but 30-40 years in this market he deserved much better.

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The remnants are not impressive here in Stratford - light snow, can't even crack moderate so far though we may in a few minutes. Westport/Fairfield looks to get heavy stuff for a bit.

looks to pick back up again for you soon. what a crazy 30-hour period along the shoreline eh? First yesterday's overperformer. Then today's early arrival.

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what a horrible forecast by the models. funny thing is...down here the forecasts of 1" QPF down here may end up being right...but only because of the models busting on this first round of precip which should make up for them overdoing the CCB totals for tonight.

Yeap on all counts. We will end up near 4 here and we can squeeze out 6-8 tonight.

It was light now moderate, give it a few mintues you are always about ten minutes upstream of my location, check our radar to the sw as well, more banding setting up, this is all gravy.

Most modeling gives our area another .75 tonight, no reason upton does not verify with the 8-16, they certainly have the hot hand lately.

Ihave a feeling this gets further north and all of sne gets in on the action at least 6"+..............

Looking at any global right now is purely a waste of time, none of them had us snowing all day, none of them.

I should start calling this the bonus round instead of round one. Moderate is here for me and heavy looks to be moving in.

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It should be an ADV and not a warning, here.....imo.

Its too soon to take down once its been up....they will likely wait until more obvious trends occur later in the afternoon to shift it if need be. It would look awfully silly to downgrade it to an advisory only to have to re-issue the warning should it become apparent you are going to get clocked for awhile by the CCB.

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looks to pick back up again for you soon. what a crazy 30-hour period along the shoreline eh? First yesterday's overperformer. Then today's early arrival.

And it has!

You got that right. It is truly rare for me to wake up to surprise snow, let alone 2 days in a row. It makes you feel like a kid again when you did not follow the models closely or there were more frequent busts.

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