Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 While the Euro continues to puke up awful solutions like every other model, the Ruc refuses to back down on bringing SNE a good snowfall! I think the RUC has been shifting SE though in time. Lol JB... Ha! so much for 4 days or Euro/Euro Ens. should the whiff verify. this doesn't mean that much but at least this wasn't a driving rainstorm..... Yep, and you remember what we talked about a week or so ago after I busted because I was anti-NAM after it had miserably forecast the inverted dusting here. People are going to continue to bust until we realize for the last year past results have no bearing on future performance of a particular model. They all have their moments on the horror show side, as well as the gold medal moments. As always seems to be the case no solution is close to perfect. The NAM had the right idea on a disjointed system but botched this first parts placement miserably. Ironically it could actually be why the second part sucks more for others as one part makes it further north but the entire m/l slides a little further south because it dug deeper to begin with, IMO. Riding the Euro and it's ensembles wasn't worth a thing. The way things are going it'll probably nail Tuesday. -- Temp dropped roads covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 How did Barry Burbank know? He's one of the best. Even if we still get a solid event, his forecast will end up being the closest out of the TV guys. But we'll wait until its over for verification. Bostonwx wonders why he even has a job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 While the Euro continues to puke up awful solutions like every other model, the Ruc refuses to back down on bringing SNE a good snowfall! Toss it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ORH 3-6", Kev 4-8", Ray 3-6", Weatha 4-8", Coastalwx home 5-10" Bob 6-12" Capecod04 6-12+, Me 4-8/5-10, Kev 4-8" banding is going to be wicked tonight, where that sets up who knows. Phil and I could be 12+ if we can hang on to snow. A lot of SE MA could get hit hard off cape tonight ...12+ if it doesn't get robbed SE. I will probably be changing this later today just dont think our changes are done. think that's a good call... but the ray 3-6 seems high......since there is supposed to be a sharp cut off 1-2 IMO. latitude looks to be a real hinderance in this one. looks like it could sneak up the NE shore of boston like lynn/ swamscott area esp close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 How did Barry Burbank know? He took some heat in here yesterday. He's a God today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 He's one of the best. Even if we still get a solid event, his forecast will end up being the closest out of the TV guys. But we'll wait until its over for verification. Bostonwx wonders why he even has a job. Hey I took that back. Def a new found respect for him. He's slacked the last few winters but man he really nailed this one for areas NW of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like a nice northward push on OKX radar in CT..Hopefully can get into that band soon before the snowbomb tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Already 1.25" here and snowing hard... this is nuts... could get 3" out of this first band some people getting 4" and we weren't supposed to get much at all. This is the definition of a nowcast event, I'm going to end up with around 5" from the first batch whereas the GFS and NAM showed nothing this morning...just a colossal failure by the models to pick up on the overrunning snows ahead of the coastal developing in the Mid-Atlantic. I wouldn't be too worried about what the 12z ECM shows with this storm...it's been all over the place, had NYC at 1.75" QPF a couple runs ago, reduced it to .75" QPF last night, those numbers will both turn out to be wrong. Widespread lightning strikes are being reported in the Mid-Atlantic, pressure falls are tucked into the coast, and heavy banding is breaking out from WV to SW PA...this looks west. It's all about radar and nowcasting at this point, just see where this storm goes. Even in 2011, computer models can't compete with the human mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 How did Barry Burbank know? I could tell you but then I'd have to kill you. He summed up what he was feeling very well Sunday. It wasnt any more than that, pattern recognition. He's seen it before. Although Harv was more aggressive his zero snows in vermont and most of NH was also telling. He didn't bend as quickly but he saw something too at that point. He was very light on the Gold Coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Its snowing even without returns on the base radar. Composite radar is more accurate at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Good lord at the CT/RI border. We're about to start on the unimpressive remnants of the western part here. What a rare failure by SW CT! You know, in relative terms. Condolences to all. Man, the Euro failed. I still can't believe what we were looking at 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is the definition of a nowcast event, I'm going to end up with around 5" from the first batch whereas the GFS and NAM showed nothing this morning...just a colossal failure by the models to pick up on the overrunning snows ahead of the coastal developing in the Mid-Atlantic. I wouldn't be too worried about what the 12z ECM shows with this storm...it's been all over the place, had NYC at 1.75" QPF a couple runs ago, reduced it to .75" QPF last night, those numbers will both turn out to be wrong. Widespread lightning strikes are being reported in the Mid-Atlantic, pressure falls are tucked into the coast, and heavy banding is breaking out from WV to SW PA...this looks west. It's all about radar and nowcasting at this point, just see where this storm goes. Even in 2011, computer models can't compete with the human mind. a little much, no? i mean, a lot of being a met (esp those TV guys) is about FOREcasting? did any human call for 5 inches at dobbs ferry last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The air is full of large flakes.. some of them are as large as quarters. Probably around 2"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Same here, I'm at 33 how about you? just ticked down to 32F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I still don't see why tonight's event couldn't be pretty impressive at least for SE areas...those are pretty ideal mid-level tracks IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 supercomputer lots of RAM RAM quitely apply describes what I believe one should do with this event. I should have known better....climo was a HUGE red flag...... 10"+ events and 3' snow depths don't grow on trees. I originally took this stance last week, but the steadfast ens support sold me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 just ticked down to 32F 28F and thumping at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Rakeage, 1.75 new, perfect dendrites, work closed, roads getting worse SECT in on the goods, heading my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RAM quitely apply describes what I believe one should do witht his event. I should have know better....climo was a HUGE red flag...... 10"+ events and 3' snow depths don't grow on trees. I originally took this stance last week, but the steadfast ens support sold me. meh..you really couldn't have known dude. There was some pretty decent agreement of an impressive events for you just a day or two ago. Who is going to not forecast a major snowstorm just because we had 2 impressive ones already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RAM quitely apply describes what I believe one should do witht his event. I should have know better....climo was a HUGE red flag...... 10"+ events and 3' snow depths don't grow on trees. I originally took this stance last week, but the steadfast ens support sold me. yeah you did say that a lot last week still youll tack on something im sure, and more snow in the future.....its a lot easier to take these events when you have a nice pack and good temps.......its funny dude, what you are experiencing now is what i feel most of the winter......just shrug it off, remind yourself its winter by looking outside, and move onto the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 a little much, no? i mean, a lot of being a met (esp those TV guys) is about FOREcasting? did any human call for 5 inches at dobbs ferry last night? I just think people shouldn't be verifying or dismissing the forecasts of any meteorologist until the event has happened. Forecasts aren't verified on model output, they're verified based on what happens outside the window. You can see on WV imagery that the Great Lakes shortwave is clearly phasing into the southern stream trough, so we'll see how far west the storm gets. It already seems to be tracking on the western edge of guidance, plenty of room for more shifts as this is a very dynamic system. Not saying that SNE will get the brunt of it, but people should just wait instead of pretending the 12z ECM is god. No one called for 5" here this morning, but as soon as I saw radar breaking out down South, I knew we were going to get pounded despite the GFS and NAM showing the banding dying out in VA. There was a clear SW-NE movement on radar with the WAA snows, and they are giving NY/CT a good show right now, more than expected. I also stuck to an 8-14" forecast for my area despite people telling me it was too much and models backing down on QPF. I wouldn't be surprised if we get towards the top end of that given what's happening in WV/PA/VA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think the RUC has been shifting SE though in time. Ha! Yep, and you remember what we talked about a week or so ago after I busted because I was anti-NAM after it had miserably forecast the inverted dusting here. People are going to continue to bust until we realize for the last year past results have no bearing on future performance of a particular model. They all have their moments on the horror show side, as well as the gold medal moments. As always seems to be the case no solution is close to perfect. The NAM had the right idea on a disjointed system but botched this first parts placement miserably. Ironically it could actually be why the second part sucks more for others as one part makes it further north but the entire m/l slides a little further south because it dug deeper to begin with, IMO. Riding the Euro and it's ensembles wasn't worth a thing. The way things are going it'll probably nail Tuesday. -- Temp dropped roads covered. I really can't see the shift SE, on ncep and definitely on twisterdata, it actually has been expanding the precip. shield quite a bit the past few runs! Just an observation and I could totally be wrong here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I still don't see why tonight's event couldn't be pretty impressive at least for SE areas...those are pretty ideal mid-level tracks IMO. Agreed. Plus I think it's never a bad sign when this morning's WAA ending up quite a bit further NW than modeled even last night. I like areas of 12" are definitely doable GON-SFZ-Marshfield on SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 meh..you really couldn't have known dude. There was some pretty decent agreement of an impressive events for you just a day or two ago. Who is going to not forecast a major snowstorm just because we had 2 impressive ones already? Well, that coupled with the concerns expressed by others should have given me pause in the end......but I did a terrible job here and Messenger was outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well we have some LIGHT flurries we ended up with JUST under 2" we didn't get into any good bands. I swear we get stuck with low end during all the extras and fun. Looks like we might into some more banding soon and then hopefully we don't get whiffed tonight, not sure what the latest deal on the W. CT...Until there waiting and seeing and listening to people gripe about the crappy weather while I am loving every flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I could tell you but then I'd have to kill you. He summed up what he was feeling very well Sunday. It wasnt any more than that, pattern recognition. He's seen it before. Although Harv was more aggressive his zero snows in vermont and most of NH was also telling. He didn't bend as quickly but he saw something too at that point. He was very light on the Gold Coast too. It was a pretty bold call, but it may work out. He saw the nrn stream as a kicker and as something that would prevent the expansive shield of snow northward. He upped the totals a bit since yesterday, but the way things look now..he'll probably end up verifying the best. I left things in limbo because this storm could pull a few things on us. We'll see what this does. Pretty strong banding signal still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I just think people shouldn't be verifying or dismissing the forecasts of any meteorologist until the event has happened. Forecasts aren't verified on model output, they're verified based on what happens outside the window. You can see on WV imagery that the Great Lakes shortwave is clearly phasing into the southern stream trough, so we'll see how far west the storm gets. It already seems to be tracking on the western edge of guidance, plenty of room for more shifts as this is a very dynamic system. Not saying that SNE will get the brunt of it, but people should just wait instead of pretending the 12z ECM is god. No one called for 5" here this morning, but as soon as I saw radar breaking out down South, I knew we were going to get pounded despite the GFS and NAM showing the banding dying out in VA. There was a clear SW-NE movement on radar with the WAA snows, and they are giving NY/CT a good show right now, more than expected. I also stuck to an 8-14" forecast for my area despite people telling me it was too much and models backing down on QPF. I wouldn't be surprised if we get towards the top end of that given what's happening in WV/PA/VA right now. Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 How did Barry Burbank know? I guess hes picked up a few things over his 40 years of forecasting weather in NE. I used to watch him when we used to vacation in Maine when when I was 10, so hes been around awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 what a horrible forecast by the models. funny thing is...down here the forecasts of 1" QPF down here may end up being right...but only because of the models busting on this first round of precip which should make up for them overdoing the CCB totals for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yeah you did say that a lot last week still youll tack on something im sure, and more snow in the future.....its a lot easier to take these events when you have a nice pack and good temps.......its funny dude, what you are experiencing now is what i feel most of the winter......just shrug it off, remind yourself its winter by looking outside, and move onto the next. Next week could easily be nothing, followed by a torch....that looked like an epic winter wouldn't quite appear to be so epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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