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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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gotta also think that at some point it’s not going to snow anymore. In terms of shear entertainment value from the weather and following this stuff, it would real unfortunate if we found ourselves in one of those patterns that's dodgy like this – hopefully this is the only one that pulls this crap.

As to this: starting to wonder if we get nothing from this NW of BOS-HFD and it all busts SE… No hunch or anything, but sat/rad trends are disheartening at the moment. Clearly the NAM's escaping a wave ENE along the baroclinic axis idea wasn't so bad. There is a big disconnect that has evolved between it and the U/L, such that the latter has less to work with now. Nowcast is not instilling much hope in this at the moment. But the current trajectory on vapor imagery tends to match the expectation of a compact U/L moving ENE rather than NE, and that may take even the advisory area out of the running, and may require reducing much of the warn area of a yawner.

We'll chekc back in around 5 but for the time being... what a jip job.

gyp.

and one more thing: It's oy vey...not oy vei. Get with the program.

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I'm worries based on the water vapor that we could really get shafted in HFD and BOS while areas just south get hit hard.

The kicker is really causing big issues here.

The trends certainly don't look very good for us, in fact I could see us being in the screwzone middle...high totals to our NE/SE then another nice area off to our SW.

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gotta also think that at some point it’s not going to snow anymore. In terms of shear entertainment value from the weather and following this stuff, it would real unfortunate if we found ourselves in one of those patterns that's dodgy like this – hopefully this is the only one that pulls this crap.

As to this: starting to wonder if we get nothing from this NW of BOS-HFD and it all busts SE… No hunch or anything, but sat/rad trends are disheartening at the moment. Clearly the NAM's escaping a wave ENE along the baroclinic axis idea wasn't so bad. There is a big disconnect that has evolved between it and the U/L, such that the latter has less to work with now. Nowcast is not instilling much hope in this at the moment. But the current trajectory on vapor imagery tends to match the expectation of a compact U/L moving ENE rather than NE, and that may take even the advisory area out of the running, and may require reducing much of the warn area of a yawner.

We'll chekc back in around 5 but for the time being... what a jip job.

The high res stuff agrees with you. It's going to be a few inches to nothing in a few miles/mile or two per them/the setup. Might change though.

IMO the NAM and to some extent the RGEM - no contest. They had the best idea, not perfect, but better. There is no question the idea of one big wrapped up storm (Euro/UK) was a total bust.

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It's going to be a nasty gradient and JMHO could be anywhere from Cape Cod to Will. I fear the reaper even down here in later runs.

Why?

Because there's hints of another little meso low forming offshore (convective complex at the NE end of the line...it moves from a position at the sw end of the line) as the big band tries to push up tonight which would pinch off moisture and then we'd be stuck yet again with waiting for the CCB. Right now the ARW/NMM say don't worry about it, just something to keep an eye on.

ARW/NMM in the new run are better, it's a solid hit. That's a big improvement.

That is about as painful a depiction as there is for me....."better"....it had better keep trending better or else I'd rather the gradient near you.

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Guys ARW and NMM.

I hate to say it think this time of mega cutoff is most realstic...whether it's where it's modeled here, SE 30 miles or NW 30 I don't know.

I do not like this other meso low/convective low forming on the main band that develops later today. If it's a real feature and any more intense it's going to do a number on precip totals, JMHO. If it's a phantom then we can shift this line NW.

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