40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BOX map gives me 7"....I'd take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm thinking the Euro might not even run today...too ashamed. Maybe just take a day off and reflect... Sitting, alone in the corner. Does not play well with others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StallionRx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow seems to have tapered way back in Fairfield. I95 N looks pretty slow, with 95S moving a bit quicker but still slow. Looks like we got 2-2.5 inches or so from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Rain/ip/snow mix coming down at a good clip here. Should hit Phil soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Its amazing looking at radar how much the northern edge of the precip is shrinking. All of litchfield county seems to be dry. I find nothing amazing about it.. mostly annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTNoreaster Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow seems to have tapered way back in Fairfield. I95 N looks pretty slow, with 95S moving a bit quicker but still slow. Looks like we got 2-2.5 inches or so from this morning. Things have shut down here quickly in Shelton as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The water vapor loop really tells the story... the northern stream s/w is kicking in over MI/IL right now and it's sort of pinching off the northern part of this storm and preventing it from really amplifying and pulling north. I would not be surprised to see another tick east because of the interference with the s/w over the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Kind of figured it trimmed down some looking at the updated snowfall maps when I woke up a little bit ago. This still is going to be a pretty solid storm though, not going to complain. Actually, I think the .5" line went from HPN to HFD to BOS. Who knows what it means now, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So sorry to ask but what is the local consensus for SNE/NNE at this moment... HUGE bust potential. I don't like that the mesos are pretty disgusting here tonight ala Burbank syndrome of this moving more e than NE tonight. The cutoff is going to be ugly wherever it falls. I'm thinking the Euro might not even run today...too ashamed. Maybe just take a day off and reflect... It needs a vacation. We'll wait for verification time but this is the 2nd out of 3 major events this year that the Euro was taken to the woodshed by US modeling. Yes but remember at 500mb it'll have done the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Its amazing looking at radar how much the northern edge of the precip is shrinking. All of litchfield county seems to be dry. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0011&animate=true yes, but the clown radar also shows northward movement of higher intensity precip. Looks to me like a knife edge scenario - like a scaled down version of Feb 1983, where NYC had heavy snow all day (10+ accum) and north of the Sound had zero. The sequel to that one was great - the knife crossed the Sound at dusk and Windsor Locks reported 6" new within the 8-9PM hour. (I had a ringside seat in HVN, which eventually got 16"). Somehow I can't see this one ending up that way, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The water vapor loop really tells the story... the northern stream s/w is kicking in over MI/IL right now and it's sort of pinching off the northern part of this storm and preventing it from really amplifying and pulling north. I would not be surprised to see another tick east because of the interference with the s/w over the Great Lakes. Yea, that kicker blows. I agree, Scott....I think the gradient will be sharper....hopefully close to I 495, then 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 In my view it looks like a general 6-10 incher across most of SNE. Sharp drop up to the NH border and just a little up the coast of NH and ME. Brookline should be beautiful tonight. Thank you Mark. Always lovely imby (and everyone else's) with fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So this thing's a turd? Storm fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm thinking the Euro might not even run today...too ashamed. Maybe just take a day off and reflect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yea, that kicker blows. I agree, Scott....I think the gradient will be sharper....hopefully close to I 495, then 128. I'm worries based on the water vapor that we could really get shafted in HFD and BOS while areas just south get hit hard. The kicker is really causing big issues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow seems to have tapered way back in Fairfield. I95 N looks pretty slow, with 95S moving a bit quicker but still slow. Looks like we got 2-2.5 inches or so from this morning. just wait 5 minutes you'll have another 2-2.5" once the next band rolls through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 weenie flakes finally falling here... sorry for the imby, but it looks like I may be in the sweet spot for whatever happens with this cluster f of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 just went out to shovel 2.7 as of 1145 after a 30 min lull of flurries steady light snow has resumed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm worries based on the water vapor that we could really get shafted in HFD and BOS while areas just south get hit hard. The kicker is really causing big issues here. That kicker is an agent of climo, as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HVN-PVD-PYM looks like a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polski Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 First few extremely fine flakes here 5 mi W of Newburyport, praise Ullr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Remember when we were sweating the r/s line? This has been a tough year for modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The water vapor loop really tells the story... the northern stream s/w is kicking in over MI/IL right now and it's sort of pinching off the northern part of this storm and preventing it from really amplifying and pulling north. I would not be surprised to see another tick east because of the interference with the s/w over the Great Lakes. Albany addressed this feature and its potential effects on the southern stream in their early AM AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sun peeking out again here in GC. Meanwhile, it's the warmest it's been in a week. Up to 26.4/22. Interesting that the storm will be moving east into the colder air. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Remember when we were sweating the r/s line? This has been a tough year for modeling. Northern stream playing havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 just went out to shovel 2.7 as of 1145 after a 30 min lull of flurries steady light snow has resumed Wait...you shovel with only 3 inches on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snowing pretty well here. Hoping that the pingers stay on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yea, that kicker blows. I agree, Scott....I think the gradient will be sharper....hopefully close to I 495, then 128. It's going to be a nasty gradient and JMHO could be anywhere from Cape Cod to Will. I fear the reaper even down here in later runs. Why? Because there's hints of another little meso low forming offshore (convective complex at the NE end of the line...it moves from a position at the sw end of the line) as the big band tries to push up tonight which would pinch off moisture and then we'd be stuck yet again with waiting for the CCB. Right now the ARW/NMM say don't worry about it, just something to keep an eye on. ARW/NMM in the new run are better, it's a solid hit. That's a big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 gotta also think that at some point it’s not going to snow anymore. In terms of shear entertainment value from the weather and following this stuff, it would really be unfortunate if we found ourselves in one of those patterns that's dodgy like this – hopefully this is the only one that pulls this crap. As to this: starting to wonder if we get nothing from this NW of BOS-HFD and it all busts SE… No hunch or anything, but sat/rad trends are disheartening at the moment. Clearly the NAM's escaping a wave ENE along the baroclinic axis idea wasn't so bad. There is a big disconnect that has evolved between it and the U/L, such that the latter has less to work with now. Nowcast is not instilling much hope in this at the moment. But the current trajectory on vapor imagery tends to match the expectation of a compact U/L moving ENE rather than NE, and that may take even the advisory area out of the running, and may require reducing much of the warn area of a yawner. We'll chekc back in around 5 but for the time being... what a jip job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Northern stream playing havoc. Cold solutions (at least for us) are winning this year. Even for last week's 1/18 event it was colder and snowier than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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