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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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The water vapor loop really tells the story... the northern stream s/w is kicking in over MI/IL right now and it's sort of pinching off the northern part of this storm and preventing it from really amplifying and pulling north. I would not be surprised to see another tick east because of the interference with the s/w over the Great Lakes.

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Kind of figured it trimmed down some looking at the updated snowfall maps when I woke up a little bit ago.

This still is going to be a pretty solid storm though, not going to complain.

Actually, I think the .5" line went from HPN to HFD to BOS. Who knows what it means now, though.

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So sorry to ask but what is the local consensus for SNE/NNE at this moment...

HUGE bust potential. I don't like that the mesos are pretty disgusting here tonight ala Burbank syndrome of this moving more e than NE tonight. The cutoff is going to be ugly wherever it falls.

I'm thinking the Euro might not even run today...too ashamed. Maybe just take a day off and reflect...

It needs a vacation.

We'll wait for verification time but this is the 2nd out of 3 major events this year that the Euro was taken to the woodshed by US modeling.

Yes but remember at 500mb it'll have done the best ;)

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Its amazing looking at radar how much the northern edge of the precip is shrinking. All of litchfield county seems to be dry.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0011&animate=true

yes, but the clown radar also shows northward movement of higher intensity precip.

Looks to me like a knife edge scenario - like a scaled down version of Feb 1983, where NYC had heavy snow all day (10+ accum) and north of the Sound had zero.

The sequel to that one was great - the knife crossed the Sound at dusk and Windsor Locks reported 6" new within the 8-9PM hour.

(I had a ringside seat in HVN, which eventually got 16").

Somehow I can't see this one ending up that way, though.

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The water vapor loop really tells the story... the northern stream s/w is kicking in over MI/IL right now and it's sort of pinching off the northern part of this storm and preventing it from really amplifying and pulling north. I would not be surprised to see another tick east because of the interference with the s/w over the Great Lakes.

Yea, that kicker blows.

I agree, Scott....I think the gradient will be sharper....hopefully close to I 495, then 128.

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Yea, that kicker blows.

I agree, Scott....I think the gradient will be sharper....hopefully close to I 495, then 128.

I'm worries based on the water vapor that we could really get shafted in HFD and BOS while areas just south get hit hard.

The kicker is really causing big issues here.

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The water vapor loop really tells the story... the northern stream s/w is kicking in over MI/IL right now and it's sort of pinching off the northern part of this storm and preventing it from really amplifying and pulling north. I would not be surprised to see another tick east because of the interference with the s/w over the Great Lakes.

Albany addressed this feature and its potential effects on the southern stream in their early AM AFD.

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Yea, that kicker blows.

I agree, Scott....I think the gradient will be sharper....hopefully close to I 495, then 128.

It's going to be a nasty gradient and JMHO could be anywhere from Cape Cod to Will. I fear the reaper even down here in later runs.

Why?

Because there's hints of another little meso low forming offshore (convective complex at the NE end of the line...it moves from a position at the sw end of the line) as the big band tries to push up tonight which would pinch off moisture and then we'd be stuck yet again with waiting for the CCB. Right now the ARW/NMM say don't worry about it, just something to keep an eye on.

ARW/NMM in the new run are better, it's a solid hit. That's a big improvement.

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gotta also think that at some point it’s not going to snow anymore. In terms of shear entertainment value from the weather and following this stuff, it would really be unfortunate if we found ourselves in one of those patterns that's dodgy like this – hopefully this is the only one that pulls this crap.

As to this: starting to wonder if we get nothing from this NW of BOS-HFD and it all busts SE… No hunch or anything, but sat/rad trends are disheartening at the moment. Clearly the NAM's escaping a wave ENE along the baroclinic axis idea wasn't so bad. There is a big disconnect that has evolved between it and the U/L, such that the latter has less to work with now. Nowcast is not instilling much hope in this at the moment. But the current trajectory on vapor imagery tends to match the expectation of a compact U/L moving ENE rather than NE, and that may take even the advisory area out of the running, and may require reducing much of the warn area of a yawner.

We'll chekc back in around 5 but for the time being... what a jip job.

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