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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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how is that calling for a bust? sounds like he is tweaking his forecast but it is very consistent with what he has been saying. He seems to have done a good job on this system.

He's had the right idea in general NW of Boston for days now. Really nailed it, although it isn't quite set in stone as I could see a more diffuse area of precip spreading 3-5 into much of SNH. But at the very least, he nailed the potential for this D-3 outcome NW of KBED. Boston south is tougher, if we can eek out 8-12 in the Boston area, then he didn't really nail Boston pts south, but still, a very impressive call especially given the fact that he made it on Sunday night.

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Funny… despite everything said – and it was a response to earlier concerns about it snowing there … - the very recent sat and radar trends side with the NAM now.

Go figure – it’s like some great god is listening to us and playing games based on our omissions. Hahaha – I like that: explains a lot.

Oy vei. Frankly, I have no clue on this event. It really in all seriousness more than appears we are being dealt reverses. Every time someone makes a cogent adjustment based on empirical evidence and sound theoretics, something opposite than that expectation permutes this puppy.

In the end this is beginning to come across as every model being right for some reason, just as much as they are wrong for the overall depiction. Good luck with that!

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Too generous for us up nath and not generous enough towards the Cape in my not in the least bit informed by science or meteorology opinion. That would be IMNILBIBSMO

If OKX thinks that the s coast of CT will mix for a time I think areas close to the canal will get plastered with wet snow and ratios will be poor with best banding to their NW.. IMO

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I could def. see being closer to the 3", than the 8".

Yeah it could be a nail biter, but I think you'll get into the banding for a time. It's going to be a wait and see game for you on radar, but you could be in much better shape then ASH for example. Who knows, it could be over Noreastermass128 (I'm sure he'll measure like it is anyways), but keep vigilant on radar.

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Was the UK better for folks nw of Boston...didn't see it

Yes, but its too bad we can't see the 18h qpf frame. At 24h though it has the tail end of the CCB dumping >0.25" from ASH to ORH and southeastward with a bullseye of 0.50" for the 6 hourly near BOS

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Downtown today....a few obs.

Classic snow sky but we had that with nary a flake on the big DC event last year. Not sure what to make of the radar. It looks like BOS may JUST get in on this first batch but it could miss to the south.

OT but I also was astounded by how much less snow there was when I got off the T at Govt Ctr vs my by in Brookline.....like literallly 1/3 the amount. I think all the concrete tends to absorb more heat keeping the pack lower as soon as it stops coming down. Who knows....

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Downtown today....a few obs.

Classic snow sky but we had that with nary a flake on the big DC event last year. Not sure what to make of the radar. It looks like BOS may JUST get in on this first batch but it could miss to the south.

OT but I also was astounded by how much less snow there was when I got off the T at Govt Ctr vs my by in Brookline.....like literallly 1/3 the amount. I think all the concrete tends to absorb more heat keeping the pack lower as soon as it stops coming down. Who knows....

Urban Heat Island FTL

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Downtown today....a few obs.

Classic snow sky but we had that with nary a flake on the big DC event last year. Not sure what to make of the radar. It looks like BOS may JUST get in on this first batch but it could miss to the south.

OT but I also was astounded by how much less snow there was when I got off the T at Govt Ctr vs my by in Brookline.....like literallly 1/3 the amount. I think all the concrete tends to absorb more heat keeping the pack lower as soon as it stops coming down. Who knows....

What will become of us, Jerry?!

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Funny… despite everything said – and it was a response to earlier concerns about it snowing there … - the very recent sat and radar trends side with the NAM now.

Go figure – it’s like some great god is listening to us and playing games based on our omissions. Hahaha – I like that: explains a lot.

Oy vei. Frankly, I have no clue on this event. It really in all seriousness more than appears we are being dealt reverses. Every time someone makes a cogent adjustment based on empirical evidence and sound theoretics, something opposite than that expectation permutes this puppy.

In the end this is beginning to come across as every model being right for some reason, just as much as they are wrong for the overall depiction. Good luck with that!

It's funny I was thinking the same thing. It missed a single band maybe two, but in the end it's probably not terrible.

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

This argues for an 8-11 inch snowfall across Boston metro and south to PYM

That looks absolutely fine to me for now although I believe it'll be a sharper gradient.

--

I wanted to rehash Barry's statements from Sunday. It's not that he wasn't calling for a storm, he felt light to moderate versus blockbuster. ----The model that I rely upon the most continues its amazing continuity from run to run in projecting a major storm in the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Normally, I would jump on the bandwagon and buy its solution. However, in closely analyzing the upper air perturbations, I am not convinced that this solution is superior. I do believe that the southern stream short wave will intensify. As a result, a low pressure system does develop along the Gulf Coast and it taps into a rich moisture supply. Meantime, it appears to me that a northern stream short wave in tandem with a deep vortex proceeding steadily across Hudson Bay will force the rather potent southern stream short wave more on an east-northeasterly path. With that setup, I cannot justify the Euro’s game plan of lifting that southern stream short northeastward toward Cape Cod. With all of this in mind, I suspect that the storm exiting the Carolina coast will at worst only brush the area with some light to maybe moderate snow over southeastern MA possibly up to the Boston area.

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Funny… despite everything said – and it was a response to earlier concerns about it snowing there … - the very recent sat and radar trends side with the NAM now.

Go figure – it’s like some great god is listening to us and playing games based on our omissions. Hahaha – I like that: explains a lot.

Oy vei. Frankly, I have no clue on this event. It really in all seriousness more than appears we are being dealt reverses. Every time someone makes a cogent adjustment based on empirical evidence and sound theoretics, something opposite than that expectation permutes this puppy.

In the end this is beginning to come across as every model being right for some reason, just as much as they are wrong for the overall depiction. Good luck with that!

my head hurts after reading this.. i think you mean models look like they will be right about tonights event but wrong from I-84 south about todays event

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