Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Previous thread. Bad juju in there. 09z SREF's should be out soon Hopefully we can see them tick west witht his batch of precip not well modeled thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 there is some thunderstorms associated with the upper level low in Virginia/NC...very nice radar returns north of Charleston, WV looks very convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Scott look at the 9 hour RUC, this is what I was talking about.....that can't be right, can it? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey snow already falling in southwest connecticut? Isn't it like 12 hours early? Just thought that this was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think the missing obs last night from the critical region hurt. I also think we saw a classic overcorrection in the 0z models, all of them either directly related to the missing baloon, or just the normal pattern. 6-12 Boston, Providence, Will, Kev, Bob, I'm not sure about here and taint yet want to see the 12z. The first part will struggle it's way towards us throughout the day and will finally get into the southern 1/2 of the area (south of the pike for the heaviest west, up through 128 or better in the east) as the day goes on. I said last night almost all the time the dry slots get further north than modeled and likewise I think this is no different. The difference being the dry slot stays just south, but the precip ahead of it is further north. With the first part it's going to be a struggle and although a lot of the deep moisture is being ejected east there's still precip, maybe heavy precip. Then we wait for the CCB to develop overhead later on. Looking back, the 0z-12z RUC's may have been the model of choice. I'm kind of shocked everyone is being so downtrodden. Worst case/Euro model compromise last night at 10-15 ratios this was still a 6-12 for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 To Boston-Franconia.. No it's too early for winners and losers. The NAM deserves some credit as of now, but we'll see if I get the 0.25" qpf that it gave me at 12z yesterday. 06z gives me maybe 0.7" now. This whole system is fickle. It's not congealed and we're waiting mostly for that second part to form and develop to our sw. It's always a problem when situations like that happen, but sometimes things come together and explode. We'll just have to wait and see. Guidance is still very useful to determine trends, even at this late stage of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 O and anyone else notice what the RUC is trying to do? Look at the 11Z RUC.. 992mb low just southwest of ACK. And snow pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Scott look at the 9 hour RUC, this is what I was talking about.....that can't be right, can it? lol LOL, I saw that first thing when I got in. It looks like it slides ene at first, but then all of the sudden, it develop strong lift at 19z and 20z. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks and sounds like there is a lot of room for change right now, might get interesting. I like the RUC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the RUC is killing it right now for what it's worth.. I'm concerned for you guys up there with the first batch as well.. Reminiscent of Dec. 2003 event with the initial warm air advection snows down this way being underforecasted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SREF brings the .5'' contour about to MBY again now, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOL, I saw that first thing when I got in. It looks like it slides ene at first, but then all of the sudden, it develop strong lift at 19z and 20z. Wow. That's nothing new. It's been doing it essentially since the 0z last night. SC48 and several others pointed it out last night pre midnight. It's been steadfast. The model everyone craps on may have scored the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SREFs ticked northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I missed last nights ECMWF. Where did it put the 0.5 and 1" line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is the 6 hr 12Z NAM still too far SE with this first peice? It doesn't show any snow even making it to CT or even NYC, which is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Very nice bump in the 09z SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the RUC is killing it right now for what it's worth.. I'm concerned for you guys up there with the first batch as well.. Reminiscent of Dec. 2003 event with the initial warm air advection snows down this way being underforecasted... It'd be pretty classic if in the end every model choked in tight - and may well highlight the fact that there are some data issues somewhere. Maybe it was the missing ob, one of the pros that caught 1/25 insisted it played a big role in that event. Maybe not. Would partially explain why a model like the RUC could have done so much better constantly updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM still looks like its off on the initial stuff in E PA and NJ....even thru only 6 hours. I wonder how much that will affect the ULL track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is the 6 hr 12Z NAM still too far SE with this first peice? It doesn't show any snow even making it to CT or even NYC, which is wrong. Borderline in terms of around NYC...it's probably a smidge too far SE. Nowcast time, that's a huge shift in 6 hour guidance NW so that now we at least get grazed by the first shield even on the NAM. It's going to suck if we miss .5" of QPF by 20 miles today. Whats better either way is its' not totally evacuating all moisture out of here today, we have some left around for the ocean flow to work on. I think this is going to be a nice solution as we wait for the comma head. I feel good about 6-12 for many as outlined (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM still looks like its off on the initial stuff in E PA and NJ....even thru only 6 hours. I wonder how much that will affect the ULL track. Exactly, there are some problems with the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is the second maxima the real playa in all of this? Bob "JuJu" ETaunton back in the saddle? this is hilarious... iced balloons, thunderstorms, and kidneys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Will's in charge of the nowcast but.... We should see a super tight gradient tonight and like so many other storms someone is going to get nailed on the western edge. Further east Bob looks great...NAM ticked NW of the RGEM jackpot last night. It's going to get absolutely wild tonight in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteOut56 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just looking at the radar and the RUC quickly, as that's all I've had time to look at; it appears the evening commute could turn into a surprise nightmare in southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Exactly, there are some problems with the storm NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOL, I saw that first thing when I got in. It looks like it slides ene at first, but then all of the sudden, it develop strong lift at 19z and 20z. Wow. Everyone's been saying the RUC is awful outside of 6 hours... but this winter it has done ok. The RUC is almost always further NW than other guidance, especially with coastal lows, however this season it has been correct because a lot of these storms have come in a bit further NW than progged. Its sort of like the blind mouse finding the cheese... same with JB and all those forecasters that love to hype and say snow will be further NW than modeled. This is the winter where they are correct, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is the second maxima the real playa in all of this? Bob "JuJu" ETaunton back in the saddle? this is hilarious... iced balloons, thunderstorms, and kidneys. I'm not sure why so many were so upset last night, Ekster did a good job of outlining the 1" and .5" line on the euro. FTMP it was still a 5-10/6-12 as I said to Jerry even after the terrible 0z NAM. 6-12 for Will/Bob/Kev/Boston...Ray is a tight call but let's say ray for now but he could be on the other side, a lot of interior SE MA gets 6-12. Down here I don't trust the temp profiles and think we see a tick NW again....3-6 or 4-8 for me. Someone is going to get tatooed with 8-16 probably too in that heavy band from boston to providence to me (but NW of me)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Right where those greens are coming in from the Cape (inflow) and where the inflow deforms to the north and south is an awesome spot to be in. Banding looks pretty dam good for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM has actually gotten worse here . Hardly a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nice bump up in total QPF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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