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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco/Obs - Gametime


Baroclinic Zone

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I think the missing obs last night from the critical region hurt. I also think we saw a classic overcorrection in the 0z models, all of them either directly related to the missing baloon, or just the normal pattern.

6-12 Boston, Providence, Will, Kev, Bob, I'm not sure about here and taint yet want to see the 12z.

The first part will struggle it's way towards us throughout the day and will finally get into the southern 1/2 of the area (south of the pike for the heaviest west, up through 128 or better in the east) as the day goes on. I said last night almost all the time the dry slots get further north than modeled and likewise I think this is no different. The difference being the dry slot stays just south, but the precip ahead of it is further north. With the first part it's going to be a struggle and although a lot of the deep moisture is being ejected east there's still precip, maybe heavy precip. Then we wait for the CCB to develop overhead later on.

Looking back, the 0z-12z RUC's may have been the model of choice.

I'm kind of shocked everyone is being so downtrodden. Worst case/Euro model compromise last night at 10-15 ratios this was still a 6-12 for most everyone.

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To Boston-Franconia..

No it's too early for winners and losers. The NAM deserves some credit as of now, but we'll see if I get the 0.25" qpf that it gave me at 12z yesterday. 06z gives me maybe 0.7" now. This whole system is fickle. It's not congealed and we're waiting mostly for that second part to form and develop to our sw. It's always a problem when situations like that happen, but sometimes things come together and explode. We'll just have to wait and see. Guidance is still very useful to determine trends, even at this late stage of the game

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LOL, I saw that first thing when I got in. It looks like it slides ene at first, but then all of the sudden, it develop strong lift at 19z and 20z. Wow.

That's nothing new. It's been doing it essentially since the 0z last night. SC48 and several others pointed it out last night pre midnight.

It's been steadfast. The model everyone craps on may have scored the coup.

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the RUC is killing it right now for what it's worth.. I'm concerned for you guys up there with the first batch as well.. Reminiscent of Dec. 2003 event with the initial warm air advection snows down this way being underforecasted...

It'd be pretty classic if in the end every model choked in tight - and may well highlight the fact that there are some data issues somewhere. Maybe it was the missing ob, one of the pros that caught 1/25 insisted it played a big role in that event. Maybe not.

Would partially explain why a model like the RUC could have done so much better constantly updating.

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Is the 6 hr 12Z NAM still too far SE with this first peice? It doesn't show any snow even making it to CT or even NYC, which is wrong.

Borderline in terms of around NYC...it's probably a smidge too far SE.

Nowcast time, that's a huge shift in 6 hour guidance NW so that now we at least get grazed by the first shield even on the NAM. It's going to suck if we miss .5" of QPF by 20 miles today.

Whats better either way is its' not totally evacuating all moisture out of here today, we have some left around for the ocean flow to work on. I think this is going to be a nice solution as we wait for the comma head. I feel good about 6-12 for many as outlined (so far).

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LOL, I saw that first thing when I got in. It looks like it slides ene at first, but then all of the sudden, it develop strong lift at 19z and 20z. Wow.

Everyone's been saying the RUC is awful outside of 6 hours... but this winter it has done ok. The RUC is almost always further NW than other guidance, especially with coastal lows, however this season it has been correct because a lot of these storms have come in a bit further NW than progged. Its sort of like the blind mouse finding the cheese... same with JB and all those forecasters that love to hype and say snow will be further NW than modeled. This is the winter where they are correct, lol.

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Is the second maxima the real playa in all of this?

Bob "JuJu" ETaunton back in the saddle?

this is hilarious... iced balloons, thunderstorms, and kidneys.

I'm not sure why so many were so upset last night, Ekster did a good job of outlining the 1" and .5" line on the euro. FTMP it was still a 5-10/6-12 as I said to Jerry even after the terrible 0z NAM.

6-12 for Will/Bob/Kev/Boston...Ray is a tight call but let's say ray for now but he could be on the other side, a lot of interior SE MA gets 6-12. Down here I don't trust the temp profiles and think we see a tick NW again....3-6 or 4-8 for me.

Someone is going to get tatooed with 8-16 probably too in that heavy band from boston to providence to me (but NW of me)...

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