Richmond Metro Obs and Discussion Thread

[weathervswife]

187 GFS is fun to look at. No matter what, very cold air lurking this time

[JMU2004]

if it weren't the 18z run, I would be pumped.

Cold pattern looks kaput after early Feb, so I hope we reload for one more last shot!

[Kevin Druff]

if it weren't the 18z run, I would be pumped.

Cold pattern looks kaput after early Feb, so I hope we reload for one more last shot!

7.5" of snow... sign me up...

As for February... I haven't seen that many indicators pointing towards a torch ... what leads you to believe the cold moves out?

[JMU2004]

7.5" of snow... sign me up...

As for February... I haven't seen that many indicators pointing towards a torch ... what leads you to believe the cold moves out?

Check the LR on the models.....the pattern being hinted at isn't a cold one. Of course, they will change tomorrow.

[Kevin Druff]

Check the LR on the models.....the pattern being hinted at isn't a cold one. Of course, they will change tomorrow.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_360l.gif

-8* C at 18Z isn't cold enough for you? What do you consider cold?

-16-17* C at 850?? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_850_360l.gif

[Patreeot]

I don't think we torch by any means. While we are heading into a +NAO, it looks to peak around day 6/7 before weakening. I think we see more blocking later on in February. I believe a stratospheric warming is forecasted which would support that. The +PNA looks to go away in about a week, but the EPO appears to stay negative. The PNA ridge could come back later in Feb. as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see more mild days thrown in and we get a week or so of more or less mild weather, but overall I think we stay below normal, just not as below as we've seen so far.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

alright what the heck is "UP" at hr 78 81

StnID: kric   Model: gfs3   Run: 20110127/1800    Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Sleet Ratio: 2:1   || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
======================================================================================================================
110127/2100Z   3  20003KT  39.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110128/0000Z   6  VRB02KT  28.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110128/0300Z   9  VRB02KT  25.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110128/0600Z  12  VRB02KT  26.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110128/0900Z  15  25004KT  26.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110128/1200Z  18  22003KT  28.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110128/1500Z  21  20003KT  35.6F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.016|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    87|  0| 13
110128/1800Z  24  21005KT  43.2F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.016|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110128/2100Z  27  27004KT  43.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110129/0000Z  30  27005KT  34.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110129/0300Z  33  30006KT  30.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110129/0600Z  36  31005KT  27.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110129/0900Z  39  27004KT  25.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110129/1200Z  42  20005KT  25.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110129/1500Z  45  21009KT  36.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110129/1800Z  48  24012KT  46.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110129/2100Z  51  27007KT  47.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110130/0000Z  54  30006KT  36.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110130/0300Z  57  35005KT  29.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110130/0600Z  60  01004KT  27.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110130/0900Z  63  VRB02KT  27.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110130/1200Z  66  VRB00KT  30.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110130/1500Z  69  18003KT  39.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110130/1800Z  72  19003KT  46.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110130/2100Z  75  VRB02KT  45.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110131/0000Z  78  12003KT  31.6F    UP     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110131/0300Z  81  10004KT  31.5F    UP     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110131/0600Z  84  05004KT  30.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110131/0900Z  87  03005KT  32.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110131/1200Z  90  03006KT  32.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110131/1500Z  93  04007KT  35.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110131/1800Z  96  05006KT  38.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
110131/2100Z  99  06005KT  37.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110201/0000Z 102  06005KT  33.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110201/0300Z 105  07006KT  31.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110201/0600Z 108  07005KT  29.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/0900Z 111  05006KT  28.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110201/1200Z 114  04006KT  27.9F  SNOW     9:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.020|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/1500Z 117  03006KT  28.8F  SNOW     9:1| 0.3|| 0.5    0.031|| 0.05     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/1800Z 120  03006KT  30.2F  SNOW     7:1| 0.2|| 0.6    0.028|| 0.08     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/2100Z 123  04005KT  31.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.6    0.000|| 0.08     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110202/0000Z 126  05005KT  28.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.6    0.000|| 0.08     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110202/0300Z 129  03005KT  25.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110202/0600Z 132  04005KT  24.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/0900Z 135  03007KT  25.3F  SNOW    11:1| 0.1|| 0.1    0.012|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/1200Z 138  04007KT  25.0F  SNOW    13:1| 0.8|| 0.9    0.059|| 0.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/1500Z 141  04007KT  25.9F  SNOW    15:1| 2.2|| 3.2    0.154|| 0.22     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/1800Z 144  03007KT  26.4F  SNOW    11:1| 2.2|| 5.4    0.201|| 0.43     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/2100Z 147  01009KT  24.6F  SNOW     7:1| 1.2|| 6.5    0.169|| 0.59     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110203/0000Z 150  01009KT  22.1F  SNOW     8:1| 0.7|| 7.3    0.091|| 0.69     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110203/0300Z 153  35008KT  20.1F  SNOW     8:1| 0.2|| 7.5    0.031|| 0.72     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110203/0600Z 156  35007KT  18.9F  SNOW     0:1| 0.0|| 7.5    0.008|| 0.72     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110203/0900Z 159  34006KT  12.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 7.5    0.000|| 0.72     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110203/1200Z 162  33005KT   8.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 7.5    0.000|| 0.72     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110203/1500Z 165  33004KT  18.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110203/1800Z 168  VRB02KT  27.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110203/2100Z 171  VRB02KT  28.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110204/0000Z 174  20004KT  23.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110204/0300Z 177  20005KT  21.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110204/0600Z 180  23005KT  11.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
======================================================================================================================

[SeanVA]

Unknown Precip

[JMU2004]

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_360l.gif

-8* C at 18Z isn't cold enough for you? What do you consider cold?

-16-17* C at 850?? http://www.nco.ncep....fs_850_360l.gif

I said PATTERN, not the temps projected by the 18z GFSat hour 360.....goodness.

[MidlothianWX]

alright what the heck is "UP" at hr 78 81

Unknown Precip

Srain? Sneet?

[MidlothianWX]

DT on his website:

I presume by now that many of you know that this is now the snowiest January on record for Northern Virginia through the Washington, DC area up into Baltimore Philadelphia New Jersey New York Connecticut Boston.

What?

I know for a fact that it is the snowiest Jan. on record for NYC, Newark, Bridgeport, and Hartford. Outside of that, though, he is completely fibbing. Then he goes on a rant about how the RIC region has not received ANY snow from the five significant East Coast storms this winter.

I think he's losing his mind

[Midlo Snow Maker]

HECS!!

[RIC Airport]

Give me some time to do it. I do, however, have the storms 6" or more back to 1897....I'll post them next time I'm on my other PC.

So here are the Richmond, VA snow storms 6.0" or more since snowfall observations began in October 1897. They are listed starting with the most recent event.

2010s

6.6" February 5-6, 2010

10.0" January 30-31, 2010

2000s

7.4" December 18-19, 2009

6.3" March 1-2, 2009

7.7" January 2-3, 2002

11.0" January 24-25, 2000

1990s

8.3" February 16, 1996

9.5" January 6-8, 1996

1980s

7.6" February 18, 1989

7.5" January 7-8, 1988

8.4" January 25-26, 1987

7.4" January 22, 1987

17.7" February 10-11, 1983

6.1" December 12, 1982

6.6' February 27-28, 1982

7.1" January 13-14, 1982

13.0" March 1-2, 1980

14.9" January 4-5, 1980

1970s

10.9" February 18-19, 1979

6.4" February 7, 1979

6.7" January 5-7, 1977

8.4" March 26, 1971

1960s

7.9" March 1-2, 1969

6.4" February 9-10, 1967

8.8" December 23-24, 1966

6.7" January 29-30, 1966

14.8" January 26-27, 1966

6.6" February 14-15, 1965

9.2" January 15-17, 1965

7.2" March 30-April 1, 1964

7.3" February 28, 1964

15.2" March 5-7, 1962

7.7" Janury 28, 1962

7.3 January 9-10, 1962

6.0" March 9-10, 1960

8.8" March 2-3, 1960

8.9" February 13-14, 1960

1950s

6.7" December 11, 1958

6.3" February 15, 1958

7.6" January 11, 1955

7.3" November 6-7, 1953

6.0" March 16, 1950

1940s

10.1" January 31-February 1, 1948

6.9" March 27-28, 1947

6.3" March 8, 1947

9.2" February 19-20, 1947

21.6" January 23-24, 1940

1930s

12.6" February 7, 1936

7.4" December 29-30, 1935

8.0" February 25, 1934

7.5" December 17, 1932

6.0" December 17, 1930

9.2" January 30-31, 1930

1920s

19.1" January 27-29, 1922

1910s

6.0" December 19-20, 1919

8.8" January 20-22, 1918

10.4" December 12-14, 1917

10.0" April 3-4, 1915

7.8" March 20, 1914

7.6" February 6-7, 1915

10.6" March 3-6, 1912

6.6" January 7-8, 1912

1900s

17.2" December 22-23, 1908

6.4" March 24-25, 1906

8.6" January 28-29, 1904

6.1" February 10-11, 1904

9.7" February 15-17, 1902

7.2" December 21, 1900

1890s

16.3" February 11-14, 1899

6.2" January 13-14, 1897

[Inudaw]

1920's...1890's, 1990's ... Those 3 decades are horrendous.

BUT .... 1996.. is severely misleading for the 1990's... that was one of the worst fiasco's of a storm observational total ever for the Blizzard of 96.....

[snowmiser]

So here are the Richmond, VA snow storms 6.0" or more since snowfall observations began in October 1897. They are listed starting with the most recent event.

Thanks for putting that together. I loved the 80s, the 70s didn't seem so bad, but I was a wee little one back then.

[Inudaw]

Check out what the LOL Dgex does with the energy that gets left behind after the Feb 2-4th storm...

[RIC Airport]

Check out what the LOL Dgex does with the energy that gets left behind after the Feb 2-4th storm...

Interesting.....doesnt look like it's all frozen for RIC though.

[Inudaw]

Nah its all frozen.. 850 line never gets north of RIC ;p but who cares it the DGEX!

850 mb temp line gets to about Wakefield..and arcs back south westward to the nc/va boarder near I-85..

[RIC Airport]

1920's...1890's, 1990's ... Those 3 decades are horrendous.

BUT .... 1996.. is severely misleading for the 1990's... that was one of the worst fiasco's of a storm observational total ever for the Blizzard of 96.....

The 1890s would have more, but the official records didn't begin until 1897.

Re: 1996....I agree. The January 6-8, 1996 storm total for the airport is wrong. Too bad, it won't ever be adjusted to more reasonable 12-14 inch amounts. When AKQ first put their Top 10 snowstorm page up, it had 11.5" for the RIC total. A couple years ago, they removed it from the Top 10 list.

[RIC Airport]

Nah its all frozen.. 850 line never gets north of RIC ;p but who cares it the DGEX!

850 mb temp line gets to about Wakefield..and arcs back south westward to the nc/va boarder near I-85..

Yeah,....would be nice. I'm still hoping to finish with at least 15" for the season. That would make this a decent winter and I think we still have the potential for 3-6 or 4-8" event.

[weathervswife]

It looks like this is my surprise snow for the year. We've got maybe more than an inch so far in just the last hour. Traffic's snarled, kids are off school, and I'm waiting it out before heading to work. Heavier rates so far than we had on Wednesday. Nice to get a surprise once in awhile.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

a few flakes starting to fall here

[Kevin Druff]

Light snow falling outside in Short Pump.

[RIC Airport]

RIC is officially reporting -SN now. Temp is at 32.....should be a little sticking with some of the heavier bursts coming through.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

RIC is officially reporting -SN now. Temp is at 32.....should be a little sticking with some of the heavier bursts coming through.

real wet snow or some sleet mixed in here. i have a sugar coated cookie dusting here

[snowmiser]

just started snowing here too.

more sleet than snow.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

light rain here now must be a nasty warm layer up there

[weathervswife]

Woah Midlo. Really? Screwed by the southern end of the clipper. That sucks. Looks like the storm pivoted and moved up to NOVA and DC. Imagine that.

[JMU2004]

plain rain now...RIC gets pooped on again!

[weathervswife]

I'll get you yet RIC. Now up to 9.5" and RIC is at 10.7". We're only half way home.