MidlothianWX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 DT posted this on Thursday afternoon: This IMAGE should explain WHY this is looking more and more Like a Midwest Pattern. Like I said HERE and on the web site on WED ....the winter pattern that brought us the BIG NE snowstorms is OVER. Then this Thursday night: 850 low tracks over RIC eastern MD throgh NJ over NYC. The Model S and E bias still does not see the Uper air pattern. This Low will trend further west and North in time Then on Friday afternoon: DARRELL... in the BIG scale there is NO going to be a lot of changes. While SOME refinements in the forecast are to expcted in the forecast East Coast Snowstorms happen ONLY when certain things are in place in the pattern over n America. Weather model can and do change but they do not MAKE or FORCE Lows to take this track or that track. PATTERNS DO. And right now the pattern of N America does NOT support a pure east coast all snow event. It does support and inland track or even an appalachian track And now today it is suddenly: *** ALERT --HUGE ALERT*** 12Z SATURDAY EURO BURIES NC CENTRAL & SOUTHERN AND SE VA WITH HEAVY SNOW... well over 12" of snow... The MODEL shows the biggest snow in RIC since jan 2000/ jan 1996.. yes even se va gets hamemred with a 2nd major snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 DT posted this on Thursday afternoon: Then this Thursday night: Then on Friday afternoon: And now today it is suddenly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 DT posted this on Thursday afternoon: Then this Thursday night: Then on Friday afternoon: And now today it is suddenly: He is such a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbscott126 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Excerpt from AKQ's Sat PM AFD: ECMWF MUCH MORE BULLISH...AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE GONE LKLY SNOW NW 3/4THS OF AREA WITH THIS STORM...THEN A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACRS MUCH OF NE NC. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END AS SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO START THINKING ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST WRNG CRITERIA SNOW ACRS MOST OF CWA. STAY TUNED. AFTER THIS LOW DEPARTS...DRY AND COLD FRI/SAT. IF STM MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES...MIN TEMPS LIKELY TO BE VERY COLD...PERHAPS COLDEST OF THE WINTER...ACRS MUCH OF AREA THU NGT/FRI NGT. THAT WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPS IN SNOW COVERED AREAS FRI/SAT WILL HAVE A STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 32 DEGREES...EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUN. CHESTERFIELD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS 336 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Me likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Excerpt from AKQ's Sat PM AFD: ECMWF MUCH MORE BULLISH...AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE GONE LKLY SNOW NW 3/4THS OF AREA WITH THIS STORM...THEN A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACRS MUCH OF NE NC. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END AS SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO START THINKING ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST WRNG CRITERIA SNOW ACRS MOST OF CWA. STAY TUNED. AFTER THIS LOW DEPARTS...DRY AND COLD FRI/SAT. IF STM MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES...MIN TEMPS LIKELY TO BE VERY COLD...PERHAPS COLDEST OF THE WINTER...ACRS MUCH OF AREA THU NGT/FRI NGT. THAT WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPS IN SNOW COVERED AREAS FRI/SAT WILL HAVE A STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 32 DEGREES...EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUN. CHESTERFIELD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS 336 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Me likey. my god they are bullish with the snow and cold. kiss of death? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 my god they are bullish with the snow and cold. kiss of death? Yeah, for 5 days out....that's pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbscott126 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm really hoping for a repeat of 1/30/10. Heavy snow with temps falling into the upper teens during the height of the storm. Don't remember the exact setup of that storm so it may not be a good analog for Thursday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12 ggem looks pretty damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wxrisk.com 0z Canadian model is out... MAJOR SNOWSTORM for NC VA lower MD possibly Dc and s NJ. KEY difference with the gfs... is at 96 &108 hours the Canadian does not "crush " southern energy /surface LOW. This is in good agreement with last 5runs of euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm really hoping for a repeat of 1/30/10. Heavy snow with temps falling into the upper teens during the height of the storm. Would be nice, but it's looking a wee bit iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbscott126 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Would be nice, but it's looking a wee bit iffy. Iffy at best. The flip-floppiness of the Euro is disconcerting. I need to accept that storms like 1/30/10 are rare and, well, "un-Richmond-like." As for Thursday, I'm hoping for a couple of inches of snow to put us above normal and then bring on the early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 *drops a pin* Sorry...was just twirling it around looking for something to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patreeot Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 *drops a pin* Sorry...was just twirling it around looking for something to do. 44/36 cloudy. That's a nice precip hole over central VA. Will we even see any rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbscott126 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah, there's not much to say. The radar right now is the epitome of this winter. We might catch some of the batch moving through ROA right now. Then the Thursday flizzard followed by ten days of nothingness. *Yawn* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah, there's not much to say. The radar right now is the epitome of this winter. We might catch some of the batch moving through ROA right now. Then the Thursday flizzard followed by ten days of nothingness. *Yawn* Well, there is always March. Maybe it will deliver to us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 my god they are bullish with the snow and cold. kiss of death? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 most model give us 0.05" to 0.10" a little shift NW and some good ratios and maby we can squeak out 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 is that yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 After tomorrow, it's not going to be too exciting for a while. And as we head toward the end of the month, the February 20-29th period has not been historically prime for large events. Since 1897, here are the snowstorms 3.0" or more during that period at RIC, beginning with the most recent. There were quite a few events with 2.7-2.9" that barely missed the list. 4.0" February 26-27, 1993 5.3" February 23-24, 1989 6.6" February 27-28, 1982 4.7" February 29-March 1, 1968 7.3" February 28, 1964 5.3" February 26, 1963 5.6" February 26-27, 1952 5.4" February 24, 1952 9.3" February 19-20, 1947 3.6" February 27-28, 1941 8.0" February 25, 1934 4.6" February 20, 1914 3.0" February 24, 1907 Although some notable events have occurred in March, our time begins to run out considerably after about the first week of the month. Hopefully, we can get a good 3-5 more inches before all is said and done for this winter season. That would put us at our historical average of 13.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 im scraping for anything i think we can get 1", look on the bright side if this was 06/07 or 07/08 this would be our biggest event of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 im scraping for anything i think we can get 1", look on the bright side if this was 06/07 or 07/08 this would be our biggest event of the season Yep, by this point in... 06-07: 0.3" 07-08: 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 It's apparent that this probably won't be that much of an event. But, nonetheless, I think we see some sticking. My first and last call for RIC officially....there will be no updates! 0.4" After this, we'll have to watch and see how warm we get and whether we can end the month without hitting 70°F. If that happens, it will be the 2nd winter in a row to not feature a 70 degree day during the DJF period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Serious precip hole: http://radar.weather...ct=N0R&loop=yes February blows. I hope it will start to fill in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'll go with an official airport total of a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Snow reaching the ground here now. Not too much different in altitutde. RIC will see snow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Coming down harder now. Dare I saw moderate snow with a dusting on all grill components. Dogwalk watch in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Coming down harder now. Dare I saw moderate snow with a dusting on all grill components. Dogwalk watch in effect. Seems to be a hole around the metro area. So far, we're getting the shaft! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voodoosnowgoddess Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 ahhh, the radar is finally filling in. this was getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Somewhere between S and S+. This is awesome. Whiteness on all surfaces. Gotta walk the pooch. BTB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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