baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For those wondering, the 00z MM5 never got past 12 hours. I saw that--bad time to crash and burn. The weenies probably crashed the server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For those wondering, the 00z MM5 never got past 12 hours. Probably had a bomb, and the model didn't know how to handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For those wondering, the 00z MM5 never got past 12 hours. Like a duck in a pond... On another note, Winter Storm Warnings should go up for the entire Upton CWA by 4am, I'd think. Still warning criteria snows, if they are predicting 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BTW who runs the SUNY MM5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 06z NAM snowfall maps from Storm Vista are 8-12" south of a line from Southern Hunterdon County to KEWR to KLGA. All of LI included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BTW who runs the SUNY MM5? Stonybrook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 BTW who runs the SUNY MM5? I do, I pressed the abort button at 12 hours because it looked less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For those wondering, the 00z MM5 never got past 12 hours. If you are talking about the SUNYSB MM5, those computers calculating it have a tendency to crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I do, I pressed the abort button at 12 hours because it looked less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's worth nothing that a "gradient band" as I like to call it almost always sets up along where the models have a tight gradient. I've literally seen this the last 6 coastal storms I've tracked. Somebody along the fringes of the QPF is going to get in on it. Like to see it a little more NW. Even though you and I are litterally only 19.5 miles apart, the sharp cutoff is significant. Not as bad though here in Parsipanny as up in far NW Sussex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Like to see it a little more NW. Even though you and I are litterally only 19.5 miles apart, the sharp cutoff is significant. Not as bad though here in Parsipanny as up in far NW ASussex county. I will road trip on the Garden State for that deform band if the NAM is right...I'll only have to go to exit 130 which is 5 exits to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Stonybrook. lol, College students prob just broke into the office, and started fu**ing with it. Oh well. They probably were like "screw those weather weenies, no snow for them." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The H5 shortwave closing off is still big here. It's been mentioned for a few days but hasn't been given much notice...the runs are either east, west, bad, good. But there are reasons for this. The atmosphere adjusts dramatically with small changes. The 00z run had the H5 low open the entire time it passed our latitude. This run closes it off at H5, H7, H85 in similar areas. The upward vertical velocities are more expansive..the precipitation rates can expand further to the northwest and the cold conveyor belt can mature. This! You mean it isn't just finger-painting with QPF colors??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol, College students prob just broke into the office, and started fu**ing with it. Oh well. They probably were like "screw those weather weenies, no snow for them." Actually, it is not on the main campus, it is on a seperate, isolated part of the campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Actually, it is not on the main campus, it is on a seperate, isolated part of the campus. Still, things happen. lol The MM5 probably showed a significant hit, and was stopped before it could spew the info to us. Anyways, I do want to see what Upton has to say later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Could central li get 12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 This! You mean it isn't just finger-painting with QPF colors??? Sometimes when the NAM tries to develop it's 3" liquid QPF bombs, I wonder who's at the controls.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Upton no longer thinking anything unfrozen falls at JFK...they had RA or RAPL in earlier TAfs TAF KJFK 260841Z 2609/2712 07005KT P6SM OVC150 FM261500 06010KT P6SM BKN020 OVC090 FM261800 05012G19KT 5SM -SNPL BR OVC015 FM262000 04015G23KT 2SM -SN BR OVC010 FM262300 02020G30KT 1/2SM SN FZFG OVC005 FM270600 35018G28KT 6SM -SN BKN015 OVC035 FM270900 32015G23KT P6SM SCT015 BKN050 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Northeast close-up of the RUC at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Funny how a good NAM run completely turned this place around... In the next hr, warnings should be flying from Upton... and all will be well with the universe again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Upton just updated snow maps. Thinking either low ratios or some non-snow precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Upton just updated snow maps. Thinking either low ratios or some non-snow precip. Not that many changes. Still a general 6-8" across from NYC on East, similar to its previous snow map, but maybe they're factoring in lower ratios, since a tad increase would have seemed viable, guess not. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ruc has been expansive and much more NW with its precip time in and time out for this storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ruc has been expansive and much more NW with its precip time in and time out for this storm so far. It's actually been good this year from what I can recall. I know it definitely had the right idea the Dec 26 event and the Jan 10 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 if the RUC is right, it would be one heck of a possible turn around for KLEB in NH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Forecasts: TEB: 10" EWR: 9" SWF:6" HPN:9" NYC: 10" LGA: 9" JFK: 8" FRG: 8" ISP: 7" FOK: 6" DXR: 7" BDR: 9" MMK: 8" HVN: 8" GON: 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z NMM clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think I can release a personal RAOB into the WRF-NMM's resolution if I sneeze at exactly 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z NMM clown map. I think a Mets fans made that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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