Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like the NAM is back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Deformation signal is back...PHL to NE NJ pretty much to NYC. Any time you have a closed H85, H5, H7 low just east of Toms River NJ....it's time to rock and roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The UVV's are expansive and look great, but the QPF just has a hard time getting far north. There's a good area of NW NJ and NE PA that has a great signal at 700mb but the QPF fields are lacking on the NAM thus far in those areas. just looking at the blossoming and surging radars on the pa/md border, it's hard to believe that's going to match the 06 nam 12 hr qpf total of zero, north of the mason dixon line. http://www.accuweath...r.asp?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Eastern LI has 30+kt 10m winds at 27 hrs Sharp gradient once again to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Pretty much all of New Jersey southeast of a line from Staten Island southwest to Philly has 0.75" in 12 hrs...1" in 12 hrs from PHL south to ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Pretty Much .75-1" for NYC on East, def better than the .25"-.5" it showed on the 00z NAM, and CNJ gets destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sharp gradient once again to the northwest. I'm still convinced the NAM is adjusting. The RUC is way northwest--which is a great sign. The NAM expanded the vertical velocities dramatically but didn't totally get the QPF there yet. Regardless..that's a huge band sitting from PHL to pretty much Staten Island..and serious ripping underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 The upper level height field is a tad more organized though and it has a broader region of vorticity in the mid-levels implying heights will fall faster with time if this continues. Yup, good call as usual. We've missed you with this storm, bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sharp gradient once again to the northwest. Amazing trend this and much of last season. NYC uptp or near 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like the NAM is back on track. Certainly does! Wow...Sorry guys, I know I don't post often, but, I really missed the dramatic chipmunk! Please don't put me on a post limit! It won't be worth it! I hardly ever post! ;-) BTW: Love all you guys on this forum, learning so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's about an inch of liquid into the city...maybe 0.95" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I say the city because Long Island doesn't exist on those maps, clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm still convinced the NAM is adjusting. The RUC is way northwest--which is a great sign. The NAM expanded the vertical velocities dramatically but didn't totally get the QPF there yet. Regardless..that's a huge band sitting from PHL to pretty much Staten Island..and serious ripping underneath it. Which also means subsidence, particularly with that solution. It might not be so far fetched were the deformation zone signature to verify. Coastal areas will have no problems squeezing out a solid amount of liquid with a verbatim track, but further NW? Definitely worth thinking about after already seeing a fairly similar gradient on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 07z RUC still has the surface low tucked in right off the NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's about an inch of liquid into the city...maybe 0.95" Still have hours to get her more north. This surge is coming in fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Which also means subsidence, particularly with that solution. It might not be so far fetched were the deformation zone signature to verify. Coastal areas will have no problems squeezing out a solid amount of liquid with a verbatim track, but further NW? Definitely worth thinking about after already seeing a fairly similar gradient on the 0z GFS. It's worth nothing that a "gradient band" as I like to call it almost always sets up along where the models have a tight gradient. I've literally seen this the last 6 coastal storms I've tracked. Somebody along the fringes of the QPF is going to get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yup, good call as usual. We've missed you with this storm, bud! I had to give the MA a good go for once. You guys are lucky--the boredom continues out here and the EC gets storm after storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That sharp gradient def reminds me of 12/19/09, where NW NJ and further north from the city suffered from that sharp cut-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I had to give the MA a good go for once. You guys are lucky--the boredom continues out here and the EC gets storm after storm. Gotcha, you're jumping around the entire east coast! It really has been a tremendous stretch of winter, here. I'm over 50" on the season...only 8" from last year's total which I thought wouldn't be reached for a while. In the past 13 months I'm near 110" of snow. The numbers are staggering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I had to give the MA a good go for once. You guys are lucky--the boredom continues out here and the EC gets storm after storm. i remember over a week ago "hoffman" was the lead member down there for this storm. Great call for him, pretty amazing..Im happy DC is finally gonna get to rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 That sharp gradient def reminds me of 12/19/09, where NW NJ and further north from the city suffered from that sharp cut-off. Mentioning those dates to some posters in W NJ will get you sacrificed to the subsidence gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 i remember over a week ago "hoffman" was the lead member down there for this storm. Great call for him, pretty amazing..Im happy DC is finally gonna get to rock Yes...psuhoffman for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mentioning those dates to some posters in W NJ will get you sacrificed to the subsidence gods. Even here in Lower Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm still convinced the NAM is adjusting. The RUC is way northwest--which is a great sign. The NAM expanded the vertical velocities dramatically but didn't totally get the QPF there yet. Regardless..that's a huge band sitting from PHL to pretty much Staten Island..and serious ripping underneath it. This is why I'm still calling for 8-14" here in Westchester. The NAM shows a serious deformation band over Monmouth County, which should advance northeast given the closing off of the H5 and H7 lows. I think the models are still adjusting to this system being further NW than originally progged, as were the last few storms, so I don't think the trends are over with regards to increasing QPF for NYC metro. The radar also looks totally different from what the 0z GFS and 06z NAM forecast; the models show the banding over Northern Virginia stalling and dying out, but that's clearly not happening...extremely heavy echoes are moving into Southern NJ as we speak. I think we'll pick up a few inches from that banding, and then plenty more tomorrow afternoon and evening as the H5 closed low moves SE of NYC. I'm still very bullish on this storm and don't believe 12" totals are out of question. This is a Miller A Gulf Low with very heavy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mentioning those dates to some posters in W NJ will get you sacrificed to the subsidence gods. Ouch. Nah, Manhattan never gets subsidized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes...psuhoffman for the win. yeah and HM on these boards mentioned earlier in january that in late january DC will get in on the fun...I hope i can predict like that someday catch up with you guys later, should be a very fun day, and a snowy one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 The H5 shortwave closing off is still big here. It's been mentioned for a few days but hasn't been given much notice...the runs are either east, west, bad, good. But there are reasons for this. The atmosphere adjusts dramatically with small changes. The 00z run had the H5 low open the entire time it passed our latitude. This run closes it off at H5, H7, H85 in similar areas. The upward vertical velocities are more expansive..the precipitation rates can expand further to the northwest and the cold conveyor belt can mature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i remember over a week ago "hoffman" was the lead member down there for this storm. Great call for him, pretty amazing..Im happy DC is finally gonna get to rock It is funny because this whole scenario regarding a storm threat began as a potential "overunning" event with a couple inches as the models tried to hold onto that arctic high and send a weak wave NE with a weak flow of mid level moisture over the top. Ji went all over that and named it the "PSUHoffman Storm" since PSUHoffman was the one talking it up. Since then the entire premise of the threat has changed--but it still has his signature on it even though he never asked for it, haha. Either way this reminds me a little of the Christmas bomb since it has been all over the map in terms of solutions from a CMC inland Apps Runner rainstorm to a GFS style Miller B OTS junk-pile. It has been interesting to watch. Making it more interesting is my friend out at LWX NWS and talking with her about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 For those wondering, the 00z MM5 never got past 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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