SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 seeing whos awake. Apparently much of this is falling as snow in VA/DC/MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z NAM valid at 06z for comparison with those surface OBS http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_0z/f06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z NAM valid at 06z for comparison with those surface OBS http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f06.gif The NAM should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 228am 33 degrees dewpoint 27 degrees with steady light snow. The snow is increasing in intensity. I got news for ya - My car top is white. My driveway is turning white. Road is wet from a crapload of salt VDOT dumped there geeze. This is not rain - the temp is falling and the snow is getting heavier. I'm laughing at the superior intellect, NWS LOTS of moisture heading Inbound attm http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php 35dbZ element east of DCA, Balto heading NNE - If that is snow - there will be accumulations overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 SREFs are wetter again over NJ. Tighter gradient to the northwest..but NYC still safely through 0.5 and probably closer to 1" liquid total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Should note...they are drier across far NW NJ where the gradient has tightened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still has an area of 0.5" liquid in 6 hours over ENJ..NYC..LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The GFS is also about 25 miles too far south with the low, although its strength is correct. It looks nothing like the 00z NAM 06 hour forecast (yes I know it 07z, but it's not even close). The NAM is 25-50 miles too far south and east and roughly 4hpa too weak with the low over the Carolinas which is heading north towards HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 radar makes it look like we may get a good push of precip.... followed by a long break... then round II. i'll take a 12/5/04 re-do any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Should note...they are drier across far NW NJ where the gradient has tightened. If thats the 24 hour total precip at 30, why isnt the 1 inch line near dc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 If thats the 24 hour total precip at 30, why isnt the 1 inch line near dc? The first image I posted is the 24 hr precip..the second one is the 6 hr QPF at 27 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z NAM valid at 06z for comparison with those surface OBS http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f06.gif FYI, there is currently snow falling here in Central MD. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The first image I posted is the 24 hr precip..the second one is the 6 hr QPF at 27 hrs. yeah thats the one i mean. Maybe i cant see with these old eyes but is that contour around s-nj into MD another 1" gradient? If so then it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 06z NAM slightly further north through 12 hours. Still bringing a surface low along the convection in the Atlantic and elongating the entire thing to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 yeah thats the one i mean. Maybe i cant see with these old eyes but is that contour around s-nj into MD another 1" gradient? If so then it makes sense. Correct, sir. The 1" contour is over NJ up to about Sandy Hook and back west towards DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Correct, sir. The 1" contour is over NJ up to about Sandy Hook and back west towards DC. OK thanks, thought I was going nuts. So hard to see. Nam sounds crapola still but the good stuff is 18 - 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 06z NAM might be a hair more favorable at 15 hours, but it's nothing dramatic. If it does correct it's QPF upwards by a good bit, consider me surprised given the depiction thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Four separate weenies managed to call my office today. Not once, not twice, not three times. Once per hour, and I had a 13 hour day. I have no idea how they got our number, I have no idea why my boss allowed those calls to funnel to me (well, I have kind of an idea..) but I'm at wits end with weenies telling me that I need to change my totals or how the (insert model here) is wrong because it puts less precip over their house. For the overnight crew, I'm in a shoot first, ask questions later type of mood tonight. Let's get down to some solid meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 OK thanks, thought I was going nuts. So hard to see. Nam sounds crapola still but the good stuff is 18 - 30 Yeah the graphics are nearly unreadable. Still looks like heaven to me compared to those atrocious black and white Canadian maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 24 hr NAM is improved..it's putting much more emphasis on the coastal low tucked in closer to the coast. Not sure how much QPF will reflect this but the atmospheric processes are in place for this to produce more liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Definitely better through 21 hrs..rakeage in SNJ and DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 06z NAM slightly further north through 12 hours. Still bringing a surface low along the convection in the Atlantic and elongating the entire thing to the east. The upper level height field is a tad more organized though and it has a broader region of vorticity in the mid-levels implying heights will fall faster with time if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 The UVV's are expansive and look great, but the QPF just has a hard time getting far north. There's a good area of NW NJ and NE PA that has a great signal at 700mb but the QPF fields are lacking on the NAM thus far in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 A very nice hit at 24 hrs for KNYC... Everyone can back away from the darn ledge... until the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Jersey shore..PHL...up to NE and LI getting hammered at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Its about time..The elongation was getting on my nerves.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That is hilarious, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Its about time..The elongation was getting on my nerves.. somebody call ace. . nice to have the nam go this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Eastern LI has 30+kt 10m winds at 27 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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