SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not looking likely atm but this storm tomorrow might still hold some surprises, it wouldn't be such a stretch if you hit that 7.7" by tomorrow. or 6 tomorrow and 1.7 sat/sun clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If the 06Z NAM follows its usual bias this thing is gonna be over Lisbon the way its 00Z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 coming up sref, nam ggem=/ecm ensembles radar........ I don't see any reason for the SREF's to not tick southeast at least...they run off 00z data so anything major won't be ingested. If we're going to see stuff back up to a different solution it will be with the 06z NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I just went through this thread and my eyes are bleeding...and most of it is from one person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't see any reason for the SREF's to not tick southeast at least...they run off 00z data so anything major won't be ingested. If we're going to see stuff back up to a different solution it will be with the 06z NAM/GFS. This year, guidance is guiding me to radar and obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm exactly 8" from last years seasonal total, which at the time I thought would be unreachable for a while At this time last season, I only had 17 inches. I am now sitting at 40 inches on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 AmericanWx WRF a big hit through 30 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If the 06Z NAM follows its usual bias this thing is gonna be over Lisbon the way its 00Z run was. Ask the Lisbon folks if they don't think 4-6" is a big deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It looks like the precip by dc is advancing NNE pretty rapidly and maybe even stronger than some models had. Could we be looking at some front end accumulation? was looking at the hrrr and it has precip all across the area at 10utc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Euro is actually on the south side of most globals. The UK and GGEM were nearly identical at 30 hrs with the deformation banding...UK was still good despite the reports that it was well east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think the MM5 is a lost cause at this point, by the way...it probably had critical errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The local model from lwx is pretty insane. My back yard is right under that 40 dbZ deth band!! WOOT!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 coming up sref, nam ggem=/ecm ensembles radar........ everybody's favorite crazy uncle.... the 06 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Amazing. Hard to find a 21z SREF that looks remotely like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Euro is actually on the south side of most globals. The UK and GGEM were nearly identical at 30 hrs with the deformation banding...UK was still good despite the reports that it was well east. Its a solid 0.75 - 1" still for our area after bombing DC/Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 06z RUC has some pretty good QPF tomorrow before the deformation banding even gets here. It's amplified and west with the deformation as well. By the way..thermal profiles are borderline during the QPF but the RUC has a tendency to run warm aloft so take it for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Given how much the 12z GFS/NAM messed up the ongoing precip over VA/MD/DE, I don't have a ton of faith in them. (The GFS was better than the NAM, but still way underestimated the western extent of the precip over the mid-Atlantic). 12z GFS 6-hour precip. valid 12z Wed: 00Z GFS 6-hour precip valid 12z Wed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 212am Wednesday morning here with steady light snow - you heard me right - that was NO typo - we have snow - at 34 degrees. I am beginning to think here in north VA we may end up with snow throughout the day Weds just like Maryland. I never expected snow tonight (early this morning). I expected rain tonight then RA/SN during the day Weds, then the snow Weds night. What a sweet surprise. LWX better get on the ball quick or else face a public relations disaster. I know we weren't supposed to get snow from the slp - But, WE ARE getting snow from the slp. Temp has fallen to 33 degrees in the snow. Dewpoint is 26 degrees and holding serve. looking at the obs in the mid atl thread. nw side of dc is snow....... so that bodes well up here hopefully. edit: dc is reporting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 its a World Series walk off grand slam. AmericanWx WRF a big hit through 30 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes, I think the RUC is on to something that the GFS and NAM are missing, given the current extent and movement of precip. in VA/MD/DE. However, the RUC does seem about 50 miles too far NW with the precip and the advancement of warm air aloft based on current trends. Notice how the 3 hour RUC is already too slow with the northeastward advancement of the precip. over the Delmarva as well. Parts of the NYC area (esp. central NJ, LI, and coastal CT) may be in for an early "surprise" snow today. The 06z RUC has some pretty good QPF tomorrow before the deformation banding even gets here. It's amplified and west with the deformation as well. By the way..thermal profiles are borderline during the QPF but the RUC has a tendency to run warm aloft so take it for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 As a Greenday song suggests for this amazing winter, "it is something unpredictable but in the end its right, hope you had the time of your life." From Nimrod Greenday album Good Riddance (Time of Your Life). Think about that when you look at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 As a Greenday song suggests for this amazing winter, "it is something unpredictable but in the end its right, hope you had the time of your life." From Nimrod Greenday album Good Riddance (Time of Your Life). Think about that when you look at the models. Oh sweet I was waiting for somebody whip out the late night inspirational lyrics. Let's get some Bruce Springsteen goin--then we can call it a party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Its a solid 0.75 - 1" still for our area after bombing DC/Balt Looks more than we thought. Interesting. Those Sref members are so nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 HPC just increased snowfall probabilities...70% 4" 40% 8" and 10% 12"...up from this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s17/pchg/pchg.gif?1296027003562 this is the latest.. i could weenie myself into saying its west of where the euro put it but ehh wont go that far, but the euro is the only model i compared this too, in terms of surface low placemement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s17/pchg/pchg.gif?1296027003562 this is the latest.. i could weenie myself into saying its west of where the euro put it but ehh wont go that far, but the euro is the only model i compared this too, in terms of surface low placemement. It looks nothing like the 00z NAM 06 hour forecast (yes I know it 07z, but it's not even close). The NAM is 25-50 miles too far south and east and roughly 4hpa too weak with the low over the Carolinas which is heading north towards HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 06z run of the Radar looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 06z run of the Radar looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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