MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 under normal circumstances I would be happy....after what the models showed yesterday this is quite the disappointment especially if there is a period of rain or sleet...if there is this is a waste 3-6 or 4-8 inches is a waste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 plesae for once, look at it with a little logic. euro decreasing QPF, GFS INCREASING QPF....GFS has 30% more QPF for me than euro.... needless to say I take the NAm over the canadian any day and twice when it counts You are so IMBY right now. For others there's little difference between the EURO and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I would take the RGEM anyday over the Nam until the RGEM doesnt show a favorable outcome. Ive been on these boards for a decade, know you for 4 or 5 years....you arent kidding anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sounds like only .6-.7" for Westchester...very disappointing. I don't understand how a juiced Gulf low with a closed H5 and H7 low isn't going to produce a stronger deformation band. I think the models might be underdoing the QPF a bit although there seems to be a consensus emerging that this is a routine 6-10" snowfall for the area instead of a MECS/HECS as last night's ECM showed. I'm a bit discouraged...we've had a lot of moderate storms this year, so I'm hoping for something a bit more dramatic. Still will be nice to have fresh snow though, and I always think Miller A storms can overperform, just wish it weren't such a fast mover. The system coming from the NW will supposedly force the coastal low to cut more east and "unclose" but I'm not so sure this will happen as much as the Euro/UKMET/NAM want to show it, largely because I think the coastal is going to advance up the coast faster than modeled, not by alot but in this case 2-3 hours quicker to any one location is pretty big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Latest RUC is still bringing the surface low right in along the coast that is the first portion of the storm isnt it? The part that every model has us getting no precip from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 plesae for once, look at it with a little logic. euro decreasing QPF, GFS INCREASING QPF....GFS has 30% more QPF for me than euro.... needless to say I take the NAm over the canadian any day and twice when it counts sounds like someone is having a nervous breakdown over here from my experience last year with the euro, it wasnt great on qpf right before the storm. Even if its right, 5-9" is an awesome storm.. Let it play out, nowcast, and we are getting snow...chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 under normal circumstances I would be happy....after what the models showed yesterday this is quite the disappointment especially if there is a period of rain or sleet...if there is this is a waste not what i had hoped for but stil very decent. This system is juiced up and Id expect the usual trends which need to be tracked real-time. 4 - 8 looks like a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 that is the first portion of the storm isnt it? The part that every model has us getting no precip from... Yes sir...and here's the second part developing (in the very late stages of the RUC run) at hour 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Latest RUC is still bringing the surface low right in along the coast The SE wind reports at Hatteras are an encouraging sign that this will try to tuck in for a while before escaping east. Another reason I think the feedback-challenged NAM is wrong here. Other models might be onto something by elongating the low and providing for an overall weaker CCB solution, but the NAM is very likely overdoing that process and jipping people too generously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You guys really do a great job and I find this board highly informative and sometimes entertaining. Now that I have stroked some egos can anyone give me potential amounts for orange county? I'm up in Monroe. Many thanks fellas! : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 3-6 or 4-8 inches is a waste? yes 3" is a waste. There are about 100 things I can be doing other than arguing with you guys at 130AM over 3" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 yes 3" is a waste. There are about 100 things I can be doing other than arguing with you guys at 130AM over 3" of snow I suggest you go do them, now, instead of posting the way you are right now. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 sounds like someone is having a nervous breakdown over here from my experience last year with the euro, it wasnt great on qpf right before the storm. Even if its right, 5-9" is an awesome storm.. Let it play out, nowcast, and we are getting snow...chill The Euro is not a good model inside 36 hours...again, I know the verification stats say otherwise but those count days with high pressure...when talking about big weather events or deep lows I trust the GFS/NAM/RGEM and other mesoscale models inside those periods for storms in the lower 48...that said it obviously did not trend where everyone wanted to see it trend to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 sounds like someone is having a nervous breakdown over here from my experience last year with the euro, it wasnt great on qpf right before the storm. Even if its right, 5-9" is an awesome storm.. Let it play out, nowcast, and we are getting snow...chill not at all- i just hate the hypocrisy that happens....probably as much as most dislike my negativity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes sir...and here's the second part developing (in the very late stages of the RUC run) at hour 18 model mayhem 6-9 hours prior to an event...seriously, frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The SE wind reports at Hatteras are an encouraging sign that this will try to tuck in for a while before escaping east. Another reason I think the feedback-challenged NAM is wrong here. Other models might be onto something by elongating the low and providing for an overall weaker CCB solution, but the NAM is very likely overdoing that process and jipping people too generously. The NAM nowadays is an example of modeling getting too good from what I am able to gather by examing it...its basically forecasting the effects of what it "thinks" large scale convection is going to do to the storm as opposed to 20 years ago where no model could do that...the problem is that its overdoing the convection that it thinks and is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol Oh god. Whatever happened to 5-8" being an awesome event, well with these big storms over the past year I can see why, but I for one am formally excited that 5-8" is still on the table on the majority of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOL- everyone posts QPF maps and totals...I always ask for h5 maps and no one listens....NOW YOU WAKE UP??? The effing hypocrisy is unreal. You do this just about every storm and it gets very annoying after a while. Just because the Euro cut us down somewhat (and it might not even be that bad for us since we're colder and what falls should be mostly snow vs. the mixing it had when we had more QPF), doesn't mean "storm cancel, NAM wins". Look beyond just that and see how it arrives at the solution it has. The NAM is as piss poor as it gets with QPF, and it seems to be either wacky overdone or underdone 9 times out of 10. It inexplicably cut QPF down for the storm last Friday and we ended up with twice what it showed for us. Just calm down and get a grip, and an 8" storm is still quite impressive for our area. Anyone expecting over 12" from a hard to predict event like this was bound for disappointment anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Euro is not a good model inside 36 hours...again, I know the verification stats say otherwise but those count days with high pressure...when talking about big weather events or deep lows I trust the GFS/NAM/RGEM and other mesoscale models inside those periods for storms in the lower 48...that said it obviously did not trend where everyone wanted to see it trend to. I remember some people were saying that this storm was going to be the biggest storm in years for many places in the midwest. How things have changed. This went from an inland runner, to a coastal storm, to a 2 piece storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I suggest you go do them, now, instead of posting the way you are right now. Seriously. I still think this is going to come NW and nail us, but I am a bit disappointed with the trends tonight. 4-8" isn't that exciting given how many big snowstorms we've had the past two years in NYC metro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 radar how does the precip in the MA miss us (according to every model but the RUC)??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol Oh god. Whatever happened to 5-8" being an awesome event, well with these big storms over the past year I can see why, but I for one am formally excited that 5-8" is still on the table on the majority of the models. Manny, I agree. We couldn't even buy a 5-8 inch snowstorm in 2001-2002,2006-2007 and 2007-2008. We have been spoiled lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just goes to show you how some people get around here after we get a few epic snowstorms to get a moderate one 4-8" 6-10" and people b*tching about still a pretty good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You do this just about every storm and it gets very annoying after a while. Just because the Euro cut us down somewhat (and it might not even be that bad for us since we're colder and what falls should be mostly snow vs. the mixing it had when we had more QPF), doesn't mean "storm cancel, NAM wins". Look beyond just that and see how it arrives at the solution it has. The NAM is as piss poor as it gets with QPF, and it seems to be either wacky overdone or underdone 9 times out of 10. It inexplicably cut QPF down for the storm last Friday and we ended up with twice what it showed for us. Just calm down and get a grip, and an 8" storm is still quite impressive for our area. Anyone expecting over 12" from a hard to predict event like this was bound for disappointment anyway. PLEASE, find where i said Storm cancel? I said the euro goes to the NAm, nam is going to win.... which would be 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Euro is not a good model inside 36 hours...again, I know the verification stats say otherwise but those count days with high pressure...when talking about big weather events or deep lows I trust the GFS/NAM/RGEM and other mesoscale models inside those periods for storms in the lower 48...that said it obviously did not trend where everyone wanted to see it trend to. Thats a good point that many have reiterated about the euro with these amplifed coastals. From what I gather the ECM cut qpf down south and west too. Time to look at radar, sat, obs etc.. This is a great spot from where we were and with little to no mixing, we're not far off from the wetter solutions once accountd for non snow qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 PLEASE, find where i said Storm cancel? I said the euro goes to the NAm, nam is going to win.... which would be 3-6" Nothing wrong with that. Nice little snowstorm. Not every event is going to be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 radar how does the precip in the MA miss us (according to every model but the RUC)??? lol that is weatherTAP http://tinyurl.com/66qsr7c HRRR wants to get things going early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Manny, I agree. We couldn't even buy a 5-8 inch snowstorm in 2001-2002,2006-2007 and 2007-2008. We have been spoiled lately. If this were the late 1990s, we'd all cut our arms off for a widespread 5-10" kind of event. No one should be fooled into thinking that this kind of storm is "routine" for us. Back then, 3-5" was a big deal. I very vaguely remember how big a deal 2/4/95 was and that was about this caliber of a storm for NYC-widespread 6-8" type storm that mixed with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 radar how does the precip in the MA miss us (according to every model but the RUC)??? the euro has preciep for us 2morrow and so does the harr i believe.....euro is 1-2 of slop during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nothing wrong with that. Nice little snowstorm. Not every event is going to be huge. 100pct. but, i psyched myself into a big event after last nights model run....so anything short of that would eventually be a disappointment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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