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NYC Area January 26-27 Bomb Discussion and OBS


earthlight

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I agree, the RUC especially is quite aggressive with this warm layer and what precip we have left this afternoon should be some kind of mix for most of us. Hopefully though, that's when the lull between both rounds takes place and the cold air is quick to move back in for the thumping later tonight.

A general 12" sounds like a good call for now, but depending on the banding that develops we could see more. A lot of places from the immediate NYC area west are already at 3-4".

JM how much do you have so far? 3"? Its really coming down again! :thumbsup::snowman::whistle:

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Yes, we are going to get smoked, and radar has filled in a bit north of the city in the last frame or two...Really a beautiful scene here in Southern Westchester.

OBS:

-SN

28.1/27

3.75" new

lol what a week of winter weather! From Arctic Cold to surprise snow to massive snowstorm to more snow later in the week :) and maybe more to follow next week!

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anyone take a look at water vapor imagery? there is a strong short wave trof coming down from the great lakes and it is much further SE than any model has it. It looks like it could phase with the srn stream system. that would be interesting indeed.

i cant find a good long loop of WV imagery. u have link please?. thanks!

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I was observing this thread last night and noticed some poster trying to downplay the storm and said he would quit his job if NYC saw over 6 inches from this storm. The problem was several posters took the bait and tried to debate him. To give you guys some words of wisdom...

Lol Im glad I missed that. It gets much better after 1 AM.....

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1012 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NJ/NYC METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND/SRN AND ERN

CT/RI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 261612Z - 262015Z

ONGOING SNOWFALL WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF HIGHER RATES FROM NERN NJ

THROUGH NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO SRN EXTENT

OF CT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z. SNOWFALL RATES /UP TO 1 IN PER HR/

WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN CT INTO RI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA SWWD INTO NERN/CENTRAL NJ MAY

TRANSITION TO A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN

MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES DURING THE

EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

AT 1545Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF WINTRY

PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EXTENDING FROM BWI/PHL

NEWD TO NYC AREA INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND. ENELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS

THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC

TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE 0 C IN THE 750-850 MB LAYER FROM CENTRAL NJ TO

THE NYC AREA...RESULTING IN VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF

A TRANSITION TO SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY

17-18Z. THESE THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE RUC AND 09Z

SREF.

FARTHER NE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE

VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON /20Z/...AND THEN A POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND/OR

FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW.

..PETERS.. 01/26/2011

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On the good side, since I started the day with around a foot of snow on the ground...if the storm reaches its maximum potential, I could be looking at a new greatest depth recorded since I moved out here in December 1994...the record being 25" after PD II.

Wow, that's just incredible. Looking out west at PA/WV/VA radar, the second snow area is looking more impressive by the hour. We're going to get RAKED by it tonight for quite a while.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1019 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN WV...WRN MD...NWRN VA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261619Z - 262015Z

SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS

CNTRL/ERN WV...AND PERHAPS WRN MD...DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND

THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS NWRN VA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

LATE MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY

NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT PROGRESSES NEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC

REGION. INTENSE DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER DISTURBANCE

IS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO WV...AIDING IN DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE

ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND REMOVAL OF A WARM LAYER OF AIR OBSERVED BELOW

800 MB PER 12Z OBSERVED RNK RAOB. AS THIS OCCURS...PRECIPITATION IS

EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER CNTRL/ERN WV. GIVEN THE

VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT OCCURRING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH

ZONE...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR APPEAR PROBABLE.

BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...STRONG ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT WV AND MOVE ACROSS NWRN VA. PRECIPITATION

OVER THIS AREA MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR

SLEET...BEFORE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES SNOW BY 20Z.

STRONG ASCENT COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 50-150 J/KG ROOTED IN

THE 700-600 MB LAYER SUGGEST THAT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL

BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN VA AS WELL.

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wow, News 12 Long Island still calling for 4"-8" of snow...

although they did say that with the ongoing first batch of snow, we might bump the totals a bit...

Wow, "a bit"?

I don't see how any of us get less than 8" unless the second batch really fizzles. 12" is a better estimate given how it looks now.

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