Dark Energy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I wonder what DT thinks of this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 36 hr rough QPF estimates..storm is mostly over..maybe light snow still in Eastern SNE. DC: 1.00" PHL: .75" NYC: .75" BOS: .5-.75" Where do I sign? Sounds incredibly reasonable and averages out extreme solutions on both sides with a lean towards the GFS. Actually, seems very GFS like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Would one of you guys mind posting for FMH (Otis/Falmouth) in terms of QPF? It's right on the cape cod canal. Thanks np....look like .75+....and bos is right on the .50 line...orh and ct blizz are close to .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 36 hr rough QPF estimates..storm is mostly over..maybe light snow still in Eastern SNE. DC: 1.00" PHL: .75" NYC: .75" BOS: .5-.75" NAM is gonna win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hr 12 has a sub 1004 low due south of hse by about 25-50 miles lgt precip over the area...850s dc to dov to acy UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 36 hr rough QPF estimates..storm is mostly over..maybe light snow still in Eastern SNE. DC: 1.00" PHL: .75" NYC: .75" BOS: .5-.75" Not bad at all. I think 4-8 is a good call at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM is gonna win nam was half this - the gfs/ecm/ukmet look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hr 36 storm is over.... total qpf nyc airports are prob all .75 or a tad more... Li is .75+ from edison,nj south its .75+ North jersey is .50+ Yep, basically a nice little 4-6" storm here in NNJ. Still better than the scenario we were looking at just a few days ago with a coastal hugger when everyone was worried about 0.75-1" GPF of rain on the front side and possible heavy snow on the back. At least it's mainly snow for everyone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Text data EWR: 0.73 JFK: 0.81 LGA: 0.71 ISP: 0.81 HPN: 0.56 PHL: 0.89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM is gonna win Hardly rain/mix is no longer part of the equation. It's all snow 6 inches on .75 qpf nearly doubles the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Would one of you guys mind posting for FMH (Otis/Falmouth) in terms of QPF? It's right on the cape cod canal. Thanks .98" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 euro is .10-.25 for ur area thursday morning.... thanks for the info! about what the NAM is showing. I dont pay for the euro right now so that helps! I'm hoping to eventually soon. anyways, back to your guys storm.. p-falls continue to increase off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Text data EWR: 0.73 JFK: 0.81 LGA: 0.71 ISP: 0.81 HPN: 0.56 PHL: 0.89 Sounds like only .6-.7" for Westchester...very disappointing. I don't understand how a juiced Gulf low with a closed H5 and H7 low isn't going to produce a stronger deformation band. I think the models might be underdoing the QPF a bit although there seems to be a consensus emerging that this is a routine 6-10" snowfall for the area instead of a MECS/HECS as last night's ECM showed. I'm a bit discouraged...we've had a lot of moderate storms this year, so I'm hoping for something a bit more dramatic. Still will be nice to have fresh snow though, and I always think Miller A storms can overperform, just wish it weren't such a fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The surface low isn't necessarily farther south and east, it doesn't develop the CCB in any way like it has been doing for the past two days. not sure how it translates up the coast but looking at that surface plot, its very unlikely MDT would not get into the deform bad with a surface low there, yet the precip output implies they get fringed at best by the deform. NOt sure I buy that. The GFS and NAM are further east because the SLP is east...euro kinda makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 nam was half this - the gfs/ecm/ukmet look good its where the models are headed.....EE rule....id rather be in bed with the Euro and NAm than the canadian and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So kind of like a compromise between the Ukie and the Canadian models. Depending on ratios 6-8 inches for NYC, fantastic considering the rain chances we were dealing with. I'll take 6-9 inches any day of the week. Of course I actually have to get into work no matter what on Thursday so it's not going to be a fun ride in but I'll trade that for the fresh snow pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sounds like only .6-.7" for Westchester...very disappointing. I don't understand how a juiced Gulf low with a closed H5 and H7 low isn't going to produce a stronger deformation band. I think the models might be underdoing the QPF a bit although there seems to be a consensus emerging that this is a routine 6-10" snowfall for the area instead of a MECS/HECS as last night's ECM showed. I'm a bit discouraged...we've had a lot of moderate storms this year, so I'm hoping for something a bit more dramatic. Still will be nice to have fresh snow though, and I always think Miller A storms can overperform, just wish it weren't such a fast mover. I always thought that over 12" would be a stretch for most from this storm, since it's moving very fast and these CCB features that are dynamically driven are notoriously hard to pin down. But I'll certainly take my 0.75-1" and run with it. That's still good for possibly well over 6", and you get the help of higher ratios. I'd still say 5-10" is a good all around call. The RGEM not backing down was encouraging as well. Also, 6-10" is a "routine" storm for the NYC area? This could also tick back N at 12z, we have time still for adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 its where the models are headed.....EE rule....id rather be in bed with the Euro and NAm than the canadian and GFS. The Euro is not with the NAM, it is with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 its where the models are headed.....EE rule....id rather be in bed with the Euro and NAm than the canadian and GFS. Euro shows much more than the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 np....look like .75+....and bos is right on the .50 line...orh and ct blizz are close to .50 Thanks! NAM is gonna win NAM had the right idea first on the split system killing the HECS. But, it's been a little loose since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 its where the models are headed.....EE rule....id rather be in bed with the Euro and NAm than the canadian and GFS. Im happy with 0.75 (+) qpf mainly snow. This is pretty much where we were with the earlier (wetter) runs after patial qpf was lost to mix/rain. I dont see the ECM and NAM as being close. I think the GFS/UK/ECM are all pretty close with the nam the dry outlier and the ggem the wet one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sounds like only .6-.7" for Westchester...very disappointing. I don't understand how a juiced Gulf low with a closed H5 and H7 low isn't going to produce a stronger deformation band. I think the models might be underdoing the QPF a bit although there seems to be a consensus emerging that this is a routine 6-10" snowfall for the area instead of a MECS/HECS as last night's ECM showed. I'm a bit discouraged...we've had a lot of moderate storms this year, so I'm hoping for something a bit more dramatic. Still will be nice to have fresh snow though, and I always think Miller A storms can overperform, just wish it weren't such a fast mover. Yeah, I'll take my 6-10" and run. More of a 6-8" IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 6-10" still seems like a viable solution, moreso 5-8", that's a nice SECS if you ask me. I can't wait for it to snow, gonna be heading out at 2 am while the snow is falling. Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Euro is not with the NAM, it is with the GFS. yeah ok...here is the 0Z GFS...it is NOT with the GFS....the euro is trending toward the NAM....look at it however you want. at 0Z last night I was getting 1.50-1.75...now .81. You guys keep convincing yourselves otherwise. +100000 to stormchaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the clipper on the euro is about .10 for us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Euro is not with the NAM, it is with the GFS. plesae for once, look at it with a little logic. euro decreasing QPF, GFS INCREASING QPF....GFS has 30% more QPF for me than euro.... needless to say I take the NAm over the canadian any day and twice when it counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 plesae for once, look at it with a little logic. euro decreasing QPF, GFS INCREASING QPF....GFS has 30% more QPF for me than euro.... needless to say I take the NAm over the canadian any day and twice when it counts I would take the RGEM anyday over the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Latest RUC is still bringing the surface low right in along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Im happy with 0.75 (+) qpf mainly snow. This is pretty much where we were with the earlier (wetter) runs after patial qpf was lost to mix/rain. I dont see the ECM and NAM as being close. I think the GFS/UK/ECM are all pretty close with the nam the dry outlier and the ggem the wet one. under normal circumstances I would be happy....after what the models showed yesterday this is quite the disappointment especially if there is a period of rain or sleet...if there is this is a waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yeah ok...here is the 0Z GFS...it is NOT with the GFS....the euro is trending toward the NAM....look at it however you want. at 0Z last night I was getting 1.50-1.75...now .81. You guys keep convincing yourselves otherwise. +100000 to stormchaser Can you at the very least post how it's trending aloft and at the surface with its features instead of going off the often very unreliable QPF panels? Seriously, your act is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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