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NYC Area January 26-27 Bomb Discussion and OBS


earthlight

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Like the 12/03 event this will cause a disaster rush hour this evening, people probably drove in anticipating it wouldn't snow til later as opposed to taking public transport as they would if they anticipated this.

According to the NAM, it doesn't really start snowing heavy until about 12 hours from now actually, but central NJ south of Trenton may have an issue. Verbatim, NYC looks ok until about 9 PM, when all hell breaks loose.

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Question,

If 2" or 3" fall now and then it stops until the main event later this evening. During that time most of what fall now melts due to the temps and sun magic through the clouds.

Will that 2" or 3" be added into whaterver falls tonight for the complete total of the storm? I am pretty sure it is yes but want to make sure.

Thanks

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According to the NAM, it doesn't really start snowing heavy until about 12 hours from now actually, but central NJ south of Trenton may have an issue. Verbatim, NYC looks ok until about 9 PM, when all hell breaks loose.

Tonight? Its snowing very hard right now.

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Question,

If 2" or 3" fall now and then it stops until the main event later this evening. During that time most of what fall now melts due to the temps and sun magic through the clouds.

Will that 2" or 3" be added into whaterver falls tonight for the complete total of the storm? I am pretty sure it is yes but want to make sure.

Thanks

Not only yes, but it could mean that modeling for this system shows the heaviest bands too far to the southeast.

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Question,

If 2" or 3" fall now and then it stops until the main event later this evening. During that time most of what fall now melts due to the temps and sun magic through the clouds.

Will that 2" or 3" be added into whaterver falls tonight for the complete total of the storm? I am pretty sure it is yes but want to make sure.

Thanks

The answer is yes though I am pretty sure it would be quite a bit more than 2 or 3 inches and it won't melt arrowheadsmiley.png

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Question,

If 2" or 3" fall now and then it stops until the main event later this evening. During that time most of what fall now melts due to the temps and sun magic through the clouds.

Will that 2" or 3" be added into whaterver falls tonight for the complete total of the storm? I am pretty sure it is yes but want to make sure.

Thanks

Yes. There will be no sun magic, however. Not today, perhaps in a month from now. Snow is added to the day's total every 6 hours.

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By the way, i do anticipate a lull for us sometime this afternoon that would consist of some light ip/ freezing drizzle perhaps until the deform comes in. Dec. 2003 analog all the way

The December 2003 storm was really nice. Got 6 inches from the first batch and 8 inches from the 2nd one.

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My goodness visibility is down to about 200 feet in central Queens. Unbelievable. The snow rates right now are incredible.

The webcam in Time Square was down to similar values about 15 mins ago though its not quite so bad right now.

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According to the NAM, it doesn't really start snowing heavy until about 12 hours from now actually, but central NJ south of Trenton may have an issue. Verbatim, NYC looks ok until about 9 PM, when all hell breaks loose.

Considering the NAM has no precipitation on top of us now, it is hard to imagine it has the timing down at this point. I want to see the other 12z models first. What's first the GFS? RGEM?

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The December 2003 storm was really nice. Got 6 inches from the first batch and 8 inches from the 2nd one.

No, the backend underperformed for us lol. We got like 9 inches from the first batch and 5 with the second one. The best dynamics focused further to the east and that's why Farmingdale ended up with 20 inches although they had less than us with the first part.

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