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NYC Area January 26-27 Bomb Discussion and OBS


earthlight

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Craig Allen On-Air Inc "PROBLEM! A piece of moisture has broken off from the pack and flew up the coast. An inch or two of snow will fall this morning, making for a very slick commute... then could actually quit for awhile! Then we resume with the rest of the forecast as it initially stands......snow, or a mix changing to snow, hvy at times, this evng into tngt."

THis is exactly what I wrote in other words about 40 mins ago...

jeff

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I would have gone along with this until the ECMWF jumped ship and headed east after being further west for a week.

JB is riding the JMA. Points out that it's the only model that is "still with him". He's sticking with his forecast of 6-12 in the big cities with more NW. Still bashing the GFS... points out that the SLP is NW & "several Mb" deeper than the GFS has it.

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banding already showing up in southern jersey moving due north. Startting to think any lull between these two parts of the storm either fills in or is very short in nature. Intense convection off the nc coast shows surface low getting its act together.

Amazig, guidance will play catchup for our area. Suggest radar and window is best from this point. Many caught off guard. I was watchig late last night seeing reports come out of VA and DC of little mixing.

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banding already showing up in southern jersey moving due north. Startting to think any lull between these two parts of the storm either fills in or is very short in nature. Intense convection off the nc coast shows surface low getting its act together.

I agree

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06z NAM slightly further north through 12 hours. Still bringing a surface low along the convection in the Atlantic and elongating the entire thing to the east.

AWESOME to wake up to a) RUC FTW and 2) NAM caving in at 6Z 3) Moderate snow already

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That snow is really filling in now over northern NJ and in the last few frames you can see the rain snow line pushing far off shore from the NYC/LI area. It seems like everything that can go right for a snow storm this year has. Of course the rain snow line is pushing up from the south but its slow and would be several hours away. Correct me if I'm wrong but none of the major globals had this area affecting us this early? It was only the high res late last night that began to pick up on it? I would think snowfall totals should be increased.

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