SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 No advisories in Ulster county, yet channel 11 has them in the one foot plus range. I assume you mean WPIX in NYC? They probably just ignored that part of the map when making it since I believe Ulster county folks get the Albany news stations so they probably figured nobody would look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I assume you mean WPIX in NYC? They probably just ignored that part of the map when making it since I believe Ulster county folks get the Albany news stations so they probably figured nobody would look. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yep One of the Boston stations sort of did that to LI on a map they made yesterday, they had insane amounts stretching back into central Suffolk which made no sense trailing off a mega band they had in E CT and RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol channel 3 WFSB CT says snow doesnt start for another 10-12 hours.. and around 4" total accumulation some spots 6".. how can you just lie to the public like that just because you don't want to be wrong and change your forecast.. just because his microcast says it doesn't start until 6pm.. he changed his accumulations and lowered then.. now change your start time.. NBC30 appropiately did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It definitely shows some component trying to hedge more eastward than north but you have to think at least part of that shield makes it in and a good portion of it for LI that area looks much better organized and further north than any guidadance except the ruc. I think all the models are still too south east with this whole storm. Nice convection off the carolina coast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's snowing outside right now..which no model showed getting to us with the passage of the low. I'd say this pretty much discounts all major guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's snowing outside right now..which no model showed getting to us with the passage of the low. I'd say this pretty much discounts all major guidance. Just watching new channel 4 and Chris Camino just mentioned that its accumulating down to Philly and and that no model showed this and then he let out a groan as if to say "stupid models". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Actually just checked outside, it's virga here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 it looks like it might start as rain here after all..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Actually just checked outside, it's virga here. im driving home from northwest nassau county to southwest suffolk at 5 tonight is the weather gonna be bad then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Loving the OBS so far.... It's snowing...wait no it's virga.....no no it's raining......wait wait...i just saw a meatball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is going to be interesting...surprised nothing is reported yet at KSMQ, they're well saturated and there are decent echoes over top of them...if this area from TTN SW passes over NYC over the next few hours and holds together someone could already reach the bottom range of the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is going to be interesting...surprised nothing is reported yet at KSMQ, they're well saturated and there are decent echoes over top of them...if this area from TTN SW passes over NYC over the next few hours and holds together someone could already reach the bottom range of the entire event. it looks like though on the radar im using as if it would be rain brooklyn west, dividing the city in half http://radarplus.accuweather.com/adcbin/radarplus/standalone/local.asp?user=66000187592&radar=KDIX&choices=radarproduct%3DN0Q%26radar_mask%3Dtrue%26radarframes%3D0<g=false&defaultflag=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 couple of snow flakes are visible in the snow lights here in Greenwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 moderate snow... already accumulating. 6z nam has nothing here thru 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is going to be interesting...surprised nothing is reported yet at KSMQ, they're well saturated and there are decent echoes over top of them...if this area from TTN SW passes over NYC over the next few hours and holds together someone could already reach the bottom range of the entire event. Seems like precip is earlier than modeled (with exception of RUC I believe)-- Pottstown PA reporting heavy snow; snowing in Tatamy PA, Philly, Trenton NJ, etc. Looks like it's holding together on radar as it moves northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is going to be interesting...surprised nothing is reported yet at KSMQ, they're well saturated and there are decent echoes over top of them...if this area from TTN SW passes over NYC over the next few hours and holds together someone could already reach the bottom range of the entire event. The radar is real thick already, I am thinking that if we start getting snow to the ground before 9, we may see more than predicted. I am looking to work a half day out, then the 2nd half at home, but I think my ride home will suck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes, really great model. Amazing. moderate snow... already accumulating. 6z nam has nothing here thru 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Even the RUC was not showing snow up here until 10am. The Euro was the closest. It showed on yesterday's 12z run that it would start here at 8am and between 4-7 am further south. Pretty darn close. Seems like precip is earlier than modeled (with exception of RUC I believe)-- Pottstown PA reporting heavy snow; snowing in Tatamy PA, Philly, Trenton NJ, etc. Looks like it's holding together on radar as it moves northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 column should saturate quickly. Huge moisture plume evident and lower level around 80 percent humudity. Would imagine the dry layer is in the 800's based on 00z soundin from the ridging and drier air that moved in last night but that will go away quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 this snow wastes no time. it starts... and a few minutes later it's accumulating. nice flake-age too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snowing in piscataway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Before shower: not a flake After shower: mod. snow Column moisterized pretty quickly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Please correct me if I am wrong, but based upon my amateur eyes, after looking at the radar, water vapor sat, etc, it appears as though we'll experience a "front end thump with this surge of moisture from mid morning going forward, with then a lull in the moisture and then as the upper level low swings northeast that moisture associated with it, currently hanging back in the Tennessee river valley will then blossom as the storm explodes east of NJ which will then bring our big snows later this evening.. This morning's precip may yield several inches of snow and in fact- it may change over to rain/sleet etc for coastal sections, but i dunno.. any comments are obviously welcome.. THIS ISN'T a forecast.. I'm just throwing out what I think is happening based upon my eyes and previous experience.. jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 light snow. Temp. 32.F Dewpt. 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 flurries in brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 25 with a RH of 90...... This first piece of precip is interesting. Take the NAM at 0z last night...it had this going OTS, with the stuff over TN hitting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Please correct me if I am wrong, but based upon my amateur eyes, after looking at the radar, water vapor sat, etc, it appears as though we'll experience a "front end thump with this surge of moisture from mid morning going forward, with then a lull in the moisture and then as the upper level low swings northeast that moisture associated with it, currently hanging back in the Tennessee river valley will then blossom as the storm explodes east of NJ which will then bring our big snows later this evening.. This morning's precip may yield several inches of snow and in fact- it may change over to rain/sleet etc for coastal sections, but i dunno.. any comments are obviously welcome.. THIS ISN'T a forecast.. I'm just throwing out what I think is happening based upon my eyes and previous experience.. jeff Yes, but most importantly what this means is that the low pressure system may be closer to the coast than previously modeled. Anyone have a map of latest pressure falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 it's snowing hard! they say dont trust the nam beyond 48 hours... i say dont trust the nam beyond initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes, but most importantly what this means is that the low pressure system may be closer to the coast than previously modeled. Anyone have a map of latest pressure falls? First flakes have fallen in Essex County...slightly ahead of schedule, if we can squeeze out 2-3" from this front end thing....that would set us up nicely for round #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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